Djibouti faces dark days to come. It fears the Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa will challenge its two-decade-old, artificial “sole seaport to Ethiopia” status.
BY THOMAS C MOUNTAIN
Djibouti has been landlocked Ethiopia’s only access to the sea and depends of port taxes paid by Ethiopia for most of its income and with the Eritrean ports of Massawa and Assab on the Red Sea about to open finds itself faced with losing most of the Ethiopian trade it has enjoyed a monopoly on for the past twenty years.
For a country of less than a million mostly poverty-stricken people, the over $1.5 billion a year coming in from unloading cargo for Ethiopia’s almost 100 million people is almost three quarters of its income and facing competition from Eritrean ports more conveniently located and better yet, tax free, most of the Ethiopian trade will be lost.
Why should Ethiopia pay for services from Djibouti when they get Free Ports in Eritrea and can use the money saved to help with their balance of trade deficit? The just-announced UAE funded oil pipeline from Assab to Addis Ababa is another nail in Djibouti’s coffin.
To try and diversify its economy, Djibouti has taken to offering its services to any and all armies, hosting military bases for the French, its former colonizer, the USA and now China and its 10,000 troops. Even Turkey and Saudi Arabia are rumored to be planting their flags in Djibouti soon.
Being right next door to the strategically critical Ba’ab al Mandeb, the “Gate of Tears” straights between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean and a chokepoint for the worlds largest trading partners, Europe and Asia, it is in the “national interests” for any government with imperial ambitions to have a base in Djibouti.
Still, $500 million a year in base rents cannot make up for what could be a 75% loss in Ethiopian trade and port tax revenue. What this will mean to China’s new $3.5 billion railroads running from Djibouti to Ethiopia is a good question, with specters of it becoming a white elephant with little freight to carry and Ethiopia expected to pay what turns out to be an odious loan?
This railroad deal was made with the former TPLF gangster regime ruling Ethiopia since 1991 and was made without consideration taken for peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia breaking out. Now that “Ethiopia’s Peaceful Revolution” has taken root, a railroad between the Eritrean port of Assab and Addis Ababa is what is needed, not the now redundant one built by China under its shortsighted foreign policy.
How is debt overloaded and foreign currency strapped Ethiopia supposed to pay for another multi-billion dollar loan for a project built by the funding country that is now going to be a money-losing operation from the start? Sometimes you really have to question just how well informed the Chinese Foreign Ministry is, with “economics for dummies” desperately needed.
Eritrea has been on a foreign policy offensive, by all appearance successfully directing a “soft coup” in Ethiopia, followed by a rapprochement with Somalia, with Djibouti next on the list for either another soft coup following the dark days to come or maybe some sort of foreign intervention under the watchful eyes of a few major imperial powers.
As 42-year-old Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed said, don’t worry about all these problems we Ethiopians face, Eritrea’s “Isaias [Aferworki] is leading us”.
What he is saying is rest assured a plan is in the works and when it is enacted it will serve the best interests of the almost 200 million people of the Horn of Africa and not those of imperialists large or small.
Having spent his whole adult life, over 50 years now, fighting for a real peace based on respect and cooperation between neighbors free of domination and exploitation, President Isaias today is leading a fundamental change in how the future will be decided here in what has been called Africa’s Horn of Hunger.
Hope that we will finally break free from war, famine and chaos here in the Horn of Africa is
finally becoming a reality.
Thomas C. Mountain is an independent journalist in Eritrea, living and reporting from there since 2006. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter as thomascmountain or best reach him at thomascmountain at gmail dot com.
President Isaias is due to return to Ethiopia, this time, for an official visit to the Amhara region. Why the Amhara region? Let me guess: Eritrea was the only country to host and support the Amhara people’s struggle for freedom and democracy. It appears that the Amhara regional leaders, who are preparing to welcome the return of Arbegnoch Ginbot 7 (AG7) freedom fighters in a weeks time, would like the honor of his presence either in the celebration or in his honor to pay their utmost gratitude.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki will make his second trip to Ethiopia since the Horn of Africa nations declared peace in July, amid signs that Ethiopian rebels previously designated as terrorists will return home unarmed to participate in politics.
Plans for Isaias’ visit were relayed by Nigusu Tilahun, the chief of communications for Ethiopia’s Amhara regional state, who didn’t give a date.
The announcement comes after Amhara authorities signed a reconciliation agreementwith the rebel Amhara Democratic Forces Movement this week in Eritrea, allowing the group to pursue political activities in Ethiopia after they disarm, Nigusu said in a statement.
It’s the latest step in a rapid rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, who had been at odds since a 1998-2000 war that claimed as many as 100,000 lives and have each harbored rebels hostile to their neighbor.
Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has backed a ruling politburo vow to establish multi-party democracy at home and in July made a historic visit to Eritrea in which the nations agreed on restoring diplomatic, telecommunications and transport links.
The Amhara agreement comes after talks in Eritrea last week between the Ethiopian government, Oromia regional state officials and the rebel Oromo Liberation Front on the latter operating freely in Ethiopia as an opposition party.
OLF delegates arrived Tuesday in Ethiopia and will discuss unspecified issues on a newly formed committee with the government, the group said on its Facebook page.
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel has said the return home of Eritrea-based Ethiopian opposition groups is linked to a five-point peace declaration between the two countries.
The agreement also means that Ethiopia shouldn’t host Eritrean opposition groups, he said.
“Under normal conditions of peace, if we have security agreements, the corollary is that one country would not host opposition elements of another country,” Yemane said late July in the capital, Asmara.
Eritrea’s government hasn’t offered to hold talks with Eritrean opposition groups based in Ethiopia. It isn’t “an issue at all for the people of this country,” presidential adviser Yemane Gebreab said earlier this month.
“We’re focusing on creating the grounds here whereby all citizens can enjoy their rights.”
@hawelti : Representatives of the Amhara Region and the Amhara Democratic Forces Movement, (ADFM), signed a Reconciliation Agreement in Asmara today. The Agreement provides for the ADFM to pursue its political activities in Ethiopia through peaceful means
Neither Djibouti nor Somalia can afford to start a diplomatic quarrel with the other at a time when their immediate neighbors and bigger powers are forming strategic alliances in the region.
The quarrels between Djibouti and Somalia seems past. Somali President Mohamed Farmajo was in Djibouti since August 16 where he met with his counterpart Ismail Omar Guelleh.
The two countries have only boasted of their bonds of friendship and good understanding.
Yet before this day, the context was tense between the two countries. Djibouti had ruled that Somalia’s call for the lifting of international sanctions against Eritrea was unacceptable, while Djibouti and Asmara still have an ongoing ‘border’ dispute.
Somalis and Djiboutians were eager to pick up the pieces. In particular, President Farmajo had to be forgiven for supporting the Eritrean ‘enemy’.
” Unlike tradition, he did not even go to Djibouti after his election, ” said Sonia Le Gouriellec, Horn of Africa expert.
To add weight to the balance, Djibouti also reminded its neighbor of the deployment of soldiers on his territory to help Somalis fight terrorism. But Djibouti could not aggravate its isolation either.
Indeed, the small coastal state is in a complex situation. Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia threatens its economic prosperity and the use of its port infrastructure.
Meanwhile, relations between Somalia and Eritrea continue to heat up. For example, the Eritrean Minister of Foreign Affairs has just spent three days in Mogadishu.
“Djibouti is lagging behind on all issues,” says Sonia Le Gouriellec who points to another threat: that of the UAE.
Djibouti is experiencing a violent standoff with Dubai, especially since the country expelled the UAE company DP World from its port of Doraleh.
“Many think that UAE wants to blow the Djiboutian regime. The business has become personal,” explains Sonia Le Gouriellec.
The Emirati is now managing the rival port of Berbera in Somaliland, they want to build a pipeline between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
In short, Djibouti weakened and could not afford the luxury of a quarrel with the Somali neighbor.
Nations have only permanent interests. The new political dynamic between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the role played by the Saudis and the UAE is shaping the Horn of African countries political and security outlook.
The last two weeks were probably the busiest for officials and diplomats of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Eritrea and Somalia as they travel back and forth between each other and Ethiopia in what looked like a shuttle diplomacy.
In this regard, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir had been both in Addis Ababa and Asmara for bilateral discussions in the same week. After the discussion in Asmara both officials stated that the purpose of the visit was reviewing bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Eritrea, ways of enhancing them in all fields in a way that best serves the aspiration of the two friendly nations, in addition to the latest developments at the regional and international levels and issues of mutual concern.
However, given the recent rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the role played by the Saudis and the UAE, many political analysts focusing on the region argue that the visits meant more than a mere bilateral discussion; rather the purpose of the visits probably aimed at enhancing the foothold of the Saudis in the horn.
On the other hand, Osman Saleh, Eritrean Foreign Minister, and Yemane Gebreab, political advisor to the Eritrean president also traveled both to Addis Ababa and Mogadishu for similar talks. Yet again, there was no detailed information of the purpose of these visits except stating that the discussions were concerned with implementing the recently signed peace accord between Ethiopia and Djibouti.
Similarly, following the visit to Mogadishu, these two senior Eritrean officials and their Somalia counterparts were reported to have agreed to establish a joint committee to further foster the relationship between the two nations.
On the other hand, the announcement of the UAEs plan to build an oil pipeline connecting Eritrea and Ethiopia was one of the major news headlines dominating outlets both in the Middle East and the Horn. The [proposed] pipeline will run from Eritrea’s port city of Assab to Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, another sign of the Gulf state’s increasing involvement in the Horn of Africa.
The deal was sealed reportedly during a discussion in Addis Ababa between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and UAE’s Minister of International Cooperation, Reem Al-Hashimy.
In the backdrop, landlocked Ethiopia began extracting crude oil on a test basis from reserves in the country’s southeast in June and will need port access in order to export its product.
Overall, the recent developments the Horn and the increased involvement of the Arabs grabbed the attention of many geopolitical analysts and random individuals in Ethiopia and in the Horn. In this regard, the questions analysts are asking at this time are how such relationships has managed to evolve in this short span of time and how countries in the Horn of Africa will navigate through these opportunities/threats without jeopardizing their future relations with other regions around the world.
In this regard, for geopolitical analysts, though it was there for so long, the recent development and dynamic is mainly the result of the rift in the Gulf countries; especially attempts by UAE and Saudis to consolidate their foothold in the region. In turn, these new initiatives have had an impact on the political importance and fortunes of their local allies.
The political rift between Qatar vs. the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain-Egypt quartet has further complicated these complexities in the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn. Countries in the Horn have enjoyed simultaneously, close ties with Qatar as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE for many years, but this latest crisis has compelled them to choose sides.
For Leulseged Girma, a geopolitical researcher at the Ethiopian Foreign Relations Strategic Studies Institute (EFRSSI), the current geopolitical and geo-economic rivalry in the Gulf requires the widening of one’s sphere of influence for the sake of strategic interests. This has to do with the realization of one’s interest through playing proactive roles in economic and other forms of investments including security investments which can be manifested by the provision of military exercises, delivery of training and covering military personnel expenses.
The battle for hegemony in a specific region or at the international level is also a factor for widening the sphere of influence in a strategic place such as the Horn of Africa, he asserts. The proximity of the Horn of Africa to the Gulf and other Middle Eastern countries also prompts security interdependence.
“The move by the two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Saudi and UAE, is part of their strategy to make economic investments in the Horn of Africa, looking for a bigger market and prevention of their GCC and Middle Eastern rivals from gaining a foothold in this strategic part of the world,” Leulseged argues.
The geopolitical analyst further stated that since the two are exploiting the opportunities of the recently occurred rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the recent development in the relation between the Arabs and the Horn is advantageous both to Addis and Asmara.
The rapprochement indeed created an opportunity for the two Gulf countries namely Saudi and UAE to affirm their strong foothold and to be victorious, somewhat in the fierce and very rapid international geopolitical rivalry in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Apart from this, Leulseged said; “The conflict between UAE’s DP World and Djiboutihas forced the UAE to look for another port to ensure its presence in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia is the main partner in this regard as it has been the largest landlocked country in the world. Ethiopia is an official partner of UAE as it holds a 19% share in Somaliland’s Berbera port.”
Similarly, for a senior geopolitical analyst who requested anonymity, the rationale behind such rivalries in the Horn is to fill a void which is left by the US; “It all started with the military disengagement of the US from the Middle East after the Iran Nuclear deal. The Saudis felt vulnerable and wanted to fill the void created by the US disengagement using their forces and their allies.”
The Saudis then requested countries of the Horn to sever relations with Iran. Sudan responded by closing Iranian cultural center in Khartoum. Djibouti and Somalia cut their diplomatic ties with Iran; Ethiopia maintained complete neutrality in all this, the geopolitical analyst recalls the fabrics of the recent developments in the region.
But above all, the change in leadership in Ethiopia has played a key role to revamp the relations between the Horn and the Gulf mainly UAE and Saudi.
“When a change of leadership happened at Ethiopia’s ruling party, the Saudi axis saw an opportunity to court Ethiopia to their domain; they tried and they seemed to have succeeded. That is why all the money and support is coming to Addis Ababa. They are behind Asmara-Addis rapprochement I believe. This makes it possible for them to ensure their adversaries won’t have room to manipulate and divide the support they are getting,” the geopolitical analyst argues.
The development of ports by any country in the world, in the neighboring countries, is always welcome. It can be the US, China or UAE that invested on the development of ports in Sudan, Eritrea, Somali, Djibouti or elsewhere. Ethiopia is also committed to regional economic integration as it signifies its strategic neighborhood with its next doors. It has extended its request in port and common border area development for the benefit of the Ethiopians and other Horn of African people. The port infrastructure in the Horn of Africa is not enough to carry the future of its own GDP growth.
Despite the political and economic dynamism in the Horn, the response from Ethiopia in terms of foreign policy and strategy is not yet disclosed. However, many analysts recommend that the country should reorient its foreign policy vis-à-vis the recent development.
“The current foreign policy must be revamped. It doesn’t consider the Middle Eastern countries as key partners. But, pragmatically, they are becoming very key partners. There are new and complicated geopolitical realities on the ground. There are optional development finance opportunities from powerful and emerging donors and partners. This urges the Ethiopian government to revisit its foreign policy including the practices on the ground in a manner that does not negate its national interest and the interest of its neighbors to facilitate regional economic integration,” Leulseged argues firmly.
Though Leulseged suggested a reorientation of the Ethiopian foreign policy towards the recent developments in the Horn and the advancements of the Gulf countries, the geopolitical analyst who requested anonymity stated that there seems to be no development in terms of reorienting the foreign policy of Ethiopia towards the recent development.
“I don’t think Ethiopia has any new policy to deal with these new developments. We are in times of crisis. If anything, we can only have a crisis foreign policy. The main issue driving today’s Ethiopian foreign policy is regime survival,” the geopolitical analyst stated.
Apart from this, the geopolitical analyst advised that Ethiopia better maintain its neutrality as it was before in dealing with the Gulf States; “It is not advisable to get its fingers into something which doesn’t concern her. That is what our Foreign Policy suggests too.”
Who is going to get what?
Nevertheless, ‘who is going to gain’ and ‘who is going to lose’ seems to be another interesting question in this geopolitical game. For the geopolitical analyst, the major beneficiary of the recent developments in the region is ERITREA.
“First and for most, Eritrea gets out of a two-decade-long isolation with a possibility of getting the sanction weighing down on her lifted; On the other hand, Ethiopia is speculated to gets financial support which could be instrumental for the new leaders to consolidate power. However, Sudan and Djibouti appear to be net losers,” the geopolitical analyst argued.
“On the flip side, Saudi gets military and diplomatic support against Iran, Qatar, and Turkey, while UAE gets more port business in Somalia and punishes Djibouti for its confrontation with UAE because of issues related with the cancellation of DP World port deal in Doraleh,” he concludes.
Similarly, for Leulseged Ethiopia’s advantage is mainly in financial support from the Gulf countries;
“The financial support could lift Ethiopia from the foreign currency shortage quagmire. As Saudi’s and UAE’s key partner in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia benefitted a lot from the financial support.”
But above all, the analysts recommended that the Ethiopian side should be far-sighted in this relation; of course, currently the country might get huge amount financial support, but it should be guided by clear strategy and policy so as to encompass other opportunities and further relations with other countries, especially China.
An Ethiopian court has issued an arrest warrant on former spy chief, Getachew Assefa, whom ESAT sources say has escaped to neighboring Sudan.
Our source close to the government also said Getachew Assefa has been staying in a hotel in his hometown, Mekele, Tigray region for a month. He has not been seen at the ongoing meeting of the ruling party, EPRDF.
ESAT’s source also said police for the Tigray region, his home base, has helped the former head of the National Intelligence and Security Services to cross into the Sudan.
He has earlier sent his family abroad, according to our sources.
According to the court warrant, Assefa is wanted for a range of several serious crimes.
He was the country’s head of intelligence for many years under the TPLF regime but was removed after a reformist Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, took control of political power in April.
Getachew Assefa and his spy agency have been responsible for the imprisonment, torture, and killing of dissidents, including journalists.
Assefa remained faceless and has rarely been seen in public. He shunned the media and only a couple of photos of him are available in the public domain.
“TPLF is trying to exploit the concern and fear of the people of Tigray regarding the ongoing change.” – Former army Chief of staff Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae
Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae is veteran TPLF combatant and has also served as chief of staff of the Ethiopian Defense force until he resigned following division within the TPLF sometime in 2000. He is currently a businessman and says he has no ambition for political office.
However, he is no stranger to Ethiopian politics, in all its forms, and he often shares his viewpoints with different media outlets.
In an interview with Addis Admas, a local newspaper in Amharic, he shared his views regarding the political situation in the country, the people’s reactions in Tigray on the ongoing change in the country, hopes which turned into fear, among other things.
Initially, there was hope in Tigray that the change would bring about something good for Tigray as well. Now, he says, Tigreans rather have lots of concerns and fears about it.
Based on Gen. Tsadkan’s remark in the interview, one of the concerns of the people in Tigray is the new relationship with Eritrea. “The concern is real,” he told Addis Admas.
He further elaborated that, apparently in the words of people whom he spoke to in Tigray, “We do not know about the relation [with Eritrea]. We do not know what is behind the scene. It lacked transparency.”
Gen. Tsadkan thinks that government needs to know about this concern and address it. For the rest of Ethiopians, the fear about the new relation with Eritrea is just irrational especially if viewed from “we fought alongside Eritreans, we have blood relation and we are immediate neighbors” assertions.
The rapprochement with Eritrea is a decision taken by the ruling coalition to which TPLF is a party and it is perhaps the only EPRDF decision in history that Ethiopians supported and celebrated fully.
Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae for Addis Admas newspaper.
There is also anger in Tigray, Gen. Tsadkhan went on to point out in the interview. It emanated from the belief that “the sacrifice of Tigray people is trivialized. Tigray is considered as a beneficiary [apparently in the last 27 years] while maladministration and lack of democracy were severe and that has exposed Tigreans for hate propaganda.”
Therefore, says Gen. Tsadkan, politicians from the center of the country need to understand that and do something that is “relevant for peace and unity of the country in the future.”
Asked to remark on the view that there is no distinction between TPLF and the people of Tigray, Gen. Tsadkan replied: “to say that TPLF and the people of Tigray are one is to lessen the people of Tigray.”
However, he acknowledged that TPLF power elites claim that TPLF and the people of Tigray are one.
TPLF is trying to exploit the concern and the fear of people in Tigray regarding the ongoing change. The fear is that people seem to question, according to Gen. Tsadkan, if the change in the country is not going to make a distinction between those who “erred”, in his words, and the rest of the people of Tigray, it is going to affect all.
However, he did not provide evidence to demonstrate that the fear inside Tigray is reasonable. The only evidence he cited is the death of three Tigrayan individuals in Tana Beles, Amhara region of Ethiopia. Why that could not validate the point about anti-Tigray hate propaganda is that there have been killings in different parts of Ethiopia and Ethiopians from other ethnic backgrounds were victims of it as well.
The dominant view is that the killing has a lot to do with lawlessness, anarchy and ethnic-based hate. And when it comes to ethnic-based hate and bigotry, TPLF is criticized for putting in place the hub for it, ethnic politics. TPLF is even a harbinger for ethnic-based hate propaganda.
However, Gen. Tsadkan made some good points in his interview regarding the challenges facing PM Abiy Ahmed’s administration which represents change. Just like many Ethiopians have been saying in the past few months, he stressed the need on the part of the government to draw a line between peaceful political protest and a criminal activity by armed groups. That situation is putting the country in danger, he remarked.
The difference within the TPLF is also highlighted in the interview. A minority faction seeks to reform TPLF and support the ongoing change, according to Tsadkan. The youth and elites in the region as well have interest in the reformation of TPLF and making it part of the change in Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, TPLF commemorated the sixth anniversary of the death of Meles Zenawi. A panel discussion was organized in Mekelle with the motto: “The Legacy of Meles Zenawi and Ethiopia’s journey of Renaissance.”
Key and unpopular TPLF power elites like Sebhat Nega, Abay Tsehaye, and Debretsion Gebremichael were among the participants.
Complementarity. “We are working toward an integrated economy of the two countries [Eritrea and Ethiopia] using the resources of both countries for the development of our nations.” – FM Osman Saleh.BY DEUTSCHE WELLE (DW)
Germany’s federal minister for economic cooperation and development, Gerd Müller, who is visiting several African countries, has said about 15,000 young Eritreans arrived in Germany this year, making in total some 75,000 Eritreans seeking asylum in Germany.
Müller said he hoped Eritrea would change its system of years long military conscription. He also urged the country to move toward establishing democratic structures.
In an interview with DW’s Adrian Kriesch on Thursday, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh Mohammed, who held talks with Müller earlier this week, said any compatriots of his who had migrated could return home without difficulty.
DW : You had first talks with Germany’s development cooperation minister today. Has there been any outcome of the talks already? Are there any concrete things you discussed with the minister?
Osman Saleh Mohammed: There have been no concrete things achieved, but there is now a full understanding on both sides about the current situation.
When the German minister was talking earlier today, he mentioned that there was a reform process happening here and that Germany was ready to support it. What kind of reform was he talking about?
In this region, there’s a complete change, and this change is for peace. And peace is prevailing in Eritrea and Ethiopia, and in the region at large. We had very good peace talks with the Ethiopian government and at the same time with the Somali government and the South Sudanese government, and this will continue with other parts of the region.
DW : Is there any particular project your government is interested in working on with other countries?
German Ambassador to Eritrea, Andrea Zimmer
There’s no particular project we could do here, but we said that both Ethiopia and Eritrea have created a very conducive atmosphere for investment and trade. And because of this, we are going to use the resources of both countries for the development of our nations.
For this reason, we are working toward an integrated economy of the two countries. For example, port maintenance and road maintenance are areas where we could invest.
There are other areas like agriculture where we could have what we call “integrated community projects.”
We also raised the issue of what we call “water projects’ infrastructure.” The German government might participate in supporting our agriculture, road construction and water and energy infrastructure.
DW : Did the German minister indicate the amount of money Germany wants to spend?
Not yet. We haven’t spoken about the amount of money that will be earmarked for specific projects, but in general, we had very comprehensive ideas and an understanding of different issues related to projects.
DW : In some African countries, there’s criticism that Germany demands a lot from partners compared to what it gives. Is that the impression you also have here?
That should not be the case. It will depend on the requirements that we have to fulfill. We should create our own projects and implement them, and if there are monitoring issues raised, then the German government can monitor any project, whatever it is. But you see, if we want to present a project, it has to be our own. External bodies should not impose it on us. The German government does not do that and should not do that. We have already talked about this issue, and we said all projects should be owned by the Eritrean government or the Ethiopian government, or by both of us.
DW : The German minister said that Germany is only taking an interest because of the migration crisis, the migrants coming to Europe. Is that also a shared feeling?
Migrants are not coming to Germany at the same rate as previously. The numbers are very much on the decrease. And we are not the cause of the migration. We know that it is only because European countries have given political asylum to Eritreans that migrants are attracted. They can provide many reasons to be accepted by Germany and neighboring countries in the region.
DW : Did the minister mention migration?
Yes, he did. But we do have a full understanding that Eritreans can come back voluntarily at any time.
DW : Are they welcome home?
Yes. There is a comprehensive government policy [on that], but Eritreans who want to come back voluntarily, they can come. There’s no problem.
Warlord Arrested. The notorious former president of Ethiopia’s Somali Region has been taken into custody for virous crimes.
BY TESFANEWS*
The Ethiopian government today formally arrests the former president of its Somali region, Abdi Mohamoud Omar, also known as Abdi Illey, from his residence in Addis Ababa.
Quoting the federal prosecutor, the Ethiopian state broadcast ETV reports that Abdi Illey was arrested for violations of human rights, inciting ethnic and religious conflict in the restive Somali region in Eastern Ethiopia.
Abdi illey has been under house arrest in Addis Ababa since he was removed from power on August 6, 2018.
Police also found five AK45 rifles and four pistols at his residence in Addis Ababa during searches.
On Saturday, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed told reporters measures will be taken against former officials of the Somali region, including Abdi Illey, who is suspected of orchestrating the chaos in the region earlier this month.
Abdi has been accused of abuse of power, torture and imprisonment of his critics, corruption as well as the displacement of over a million Oromos and the killing of hundreds in communal clashes under his watch.
The federal prosecutor also said other individuals who colluded with Abdi Illey in perpetrating the alleged crime have been arrested.
The Human Rights Watch and other rights watchdogs have been calling for justice in the Somali region of Ethiopia, implicating Abdi Illey and other regional officials in gross human rights violations as well as ethnic and religious strifes.
A recent report on Jail Ogaden and other reports by the Human Rights Watch implicate Abdi Illey and his special police unit, the Liyu Police, of torture, killings and imprisonment of innocent citizens.
The Liyu police and a youth group aligned with Illey have killed at least 30 people and burnt churches and looted properties early this month as pressure mounted for Illey to resign.
During his reign of power, Abdi Illey had kept close ties with TPLF officials and army generals who used their influence to keep him in office.
The TPLF officials and army generals have been accused of abusing their position, corruption and allegedly engaged in contraband trade that is rampant in the region.
The Tigray People’s Democratic Movement (TPDM) has reached an agreement with the government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to continue its movement through peaceful means.
The meeting of the two sides held today, 28 August, in Asmara was attended by an Ethiopian government delegation headed by General Adem Mohammed, Director of the Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Agency and the Chairman of the TPDM, Mr. Mekonen Tesfai.
According to the agreement reached, the Tigray People’s Democratic Movement, recognizing the prevailing changes in Ethiopia, will conduct its political activities in Ethiopia through peaceful means.
A delegation from the TPDM will also travel to Ethiopia to discuss the implementation of the agreement.
Noting that the TPDM has been struggling for the change that is currently prevailing in Ethiopia, Mr. Mekonnen Tesfai said that further discussion will be conducted in Addis Ababa.
Member of the delegation of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Mr. Tefera Deribew, indicated that encouraged by the current development in Ethiopia, several opposition organizations have decided to continue their political activities through peaceful means inside the country.
He also noted that the meeting with the Tigray People’s Democratic Movement was a success.
General Adem Mohammed (R), Director of the Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Agency, signed the agreement on behalf of the Ethiopian government.
Djibouti’s regional monopoly and economic leverage are coming under threat from “peace” between Eritrea and its only client Ethiopia. Could Guelleh and his government have any other choice than playing the villain?
For the past decade, Djibouti has been a tiny haven in the Horn of Africa, mostly free from the tension simmering elsewhere in the region. This has produced an influx of investment that has turned Djibouti into one of Africa’s most important trade and military hubs.
Bordered by Eritrea on one side and Somaliland on the other, Djibouti offered some of the only Red Sea real estate secure enough for investors and major powers. Its geographical location and the regional environment made it a high-demand destination by default. Global powers including both the United States and China have built military bases, funded port developments and invested in infrastructure projects.
All of this could now change, thanks to Ethiopia’s recent rapprochement with neighbouring Eritrea and Somali calls for sanctions to be lifted against [Eritrea]. Djibouti’s regional monopoly is coming under threat, not from war but instead from peace. In its drive to protect its own interests, could this longtime beacon of peace in the Horn of Africa become the thorn in the side of new efforts to end regional conflict?
How Djibouti gains from tension in the Horn of Africa
For decades, Djibouti has benefited from the border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Landlocked Ethiopia needs access to the Gulf of Aden, which sits on the other side of Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. With ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea cut and Somalia torn by internal conflict, Djibouti was for a long time the only viable option left for Ethiopia (one of the world’s fastest-growing economies) as it connected its trade ambitions to the wider world.
Currently, 95% of Ethiopia’s $2.9 billion foreign trade passes through Djibouti, accounting for roughly 70% of cargo passing through Port of Djibouti heading in or out of Ethiopia.
Similarly, Somalia’s internal problems with al-Shabaab and piracy along its coastline posed a serious threat to global trade. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea connect the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean, meaning they sit on one of the most important trade routes on the planet, which one-third of the world’s commercial ships transit. To protect this route, American, European, and Japanese forces built military installations in Djibouti and used it as a base to ensure the safety of these waters.
Djibouti has also benefited greatly from the “War on Terror” and serves as home to one of the US’ most strategically important military bases, Camp Lemonnier, which has been in operation since 2001.
The American military has used Djibouti to stage counterterrorism operations in both Yemen and Somalia over much of the past twenty years. Djibouti also hosts Japan’s only overseas military base, while France hosts German and Spanish troops at its own facility in the country. Italy operates a base as well.
Last year, China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti – sparking serious concern on the part of the US, Japan, India, and others. At the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill, American lawmakers and military planners have become increasingly vocal about the threat China’s economic clout and political influence poses to their own position in the country.
Radical moves on the part of Djibouti’s government, such as the February seizure of the Doraleh Container Terminal from contractor DP World, have raised fears that the Djiboutian government of President Ismail Omar Guelleh is willing to forcibly sideline other international partners to China’s exclusive benefit.
A decisionby the London International Court of Arbitration earlier this month ruled Djibouti cannot terminate its contract with DP World, though the government has shown no intention of returning the port to the company’s management.
Two weeks after the Doraleh port seizure, US AFRICOM commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser told the House Armed Services Committee that a Chinese takeover of the Doraleh port would pose “significant consequences” for the American military presence in the country.
After the hearing, Congressman and committee member Bradley Byrne wrote to Secretary of Defense James Mattis to communicate his concerns regarding Chinese influence over Djibouti and the proximity of China’s 10,000-man installation to the American Camp Lemonnier.
Peace in the Horn of Africa is bad news for Djibouti
Before the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement, Djibouti enjoyed a relatively free hand in taking such decisions because of its monopoly over Red Sea real estate. Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea puts all of this at risk.
Ethiopia has made it clear that developing ports in Eritrea and building new trade routes is a key factor in recent peace efforts, especially as the country aims to reduce its reliance on Djibouti.
Ethiopia isn’t the only country looking to restore ties with Eritrea. The UN placed an arms embargo and economic sanctions on Eritrea in 2009 over its alleged support for militant group al-Shabaab, which continues to wreak havoc in Somalia. Now, Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed is urging the UN to lift these sanctions. Somalia and Eritrea reached a deal to restore bilateral ties at the end of last month.
Djibouti hasn’t been particularly enthusiastic about Somalia’s new stance. Djibouti has its own border dispute with Eritrea and contributes troops to AMISOM, the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia attempting to defeat the militant group Eritrea was previously accused of supporting.
It’s still an open question as to whether this opening will impact human rights violations in Eritrea, including the system of indefinite compulsory military service programme which was driven by the border conflict with Ethiopia and now seems unnecessary.
The opportunity to shrug off UN sanctions and pursue the same opportunities that have transformed Djibouti into a hub could be too much for the secretive nation to resist. The ongoing DP World dispute has already pushed the United Arab Emirates to explore port investment opportunities in Eritrea. Separately, both the UAE and Ethiopia are working to develop the Berbera port in Somaliland.
It seems Djibouti’s position as the Horn of Africa’s darling nation has already been overshadowed. As it lobbies its neighbours against their rapid reconciliation with Eritrea, could Djibouti wind up becoming the villain in this otherwise buoyant story? With its key selling points for investors being diluted and its economic leverage under threat, Guelleh and his government may have no other choice.
Cairo needs Washington’s help to avoid a drastic, potentially destabilizing water shortage while advancing the negotiations with Ethiopia, argues Barak Barif in this article.
On July 26, the chief engineer of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Simegnew Bekele, died under mysterious circumstances. Two days earlier, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed revealed that the project could take another ten years to complete, even though the self-financed dam has already strained the impoverished country’s fragile economy.
The silver lining behind the project’s growing uncertainties is that they give Egypt a much-needed respite to devise a better water conservation strategy.
Egyptians are horrified at the effects the dam will have on their water supplies due to a temporary reduction in the Nile River’s flow.
Their country has the lowest precipitation on earth and reportedly relies on the Nile for more than 75% of its water, so they believe any drastic decrease could be catastrophic.
In 2017, President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi declared that “no one can touch Egypt’s water,” calling it “a matter of life or death.”
Washington needs to work with both countries to ensure they reach an equitable solution that does not further destabilize Egypt.
Doing so will require a closer look at the political and economic factors that spurred the project and contributed to its delays.
From Ambition to Stalemate
Ethiopia laid the dam’s cornerstone in April 2011. To ensure that foreign donors and international organizations could not delay it, the government self-financed the approximately $4 billion project, raising funds from local banks and deducting money from civil servants’ salaries for bond purchases.
Once completed, the project will create the seventh-largest dam reservoir in the world, more than twice the size of the Hoover’s (74 billion cubic meters vs. 35.2) and generating almost three times as much electricity (6,000 megawatts vs. 2,080).
Ethiopia plans to use it for power generation rather than for irrigation purposes, selling below-market energy to its neighbors.
Yet the dam will reduce Egypt’s water supplies during the multi-year process of filling the reservoir, significantly affecting the country’s agricultural industry. For example, Cairo has argued that a 1 bcm decrease in the national water supply would cause 200,000 Egyptians to lose their jobs.
After the 2013 military takeover, Sisi quickly stabilized the country while devising a coherent negotiating strategy regarding the dam. Yet five years of talks have yielded little to no progress on resolving the main issues, with officials reduced to fruitless debates over meaningless technical studies conducted by European consulting firms.
Ethiopia’s Economic Challenges
Ethiopia has been touted as an African success story, experiencing several years of growth exceeding 10%. Foreign direct investment skyrocketed from $365 million in fiscal year 2005/6 to $4.2 billion by the end of 2017/18.
Yet debt has increased as well, from $10.5 billion in 2012 to $26.2 billion in March 2018. And the central bank’s foreign currency reserves fell from $3.2 billion at the end of December 2016 to $2.8 billion this June, the lowest since 2013/14.
In December 2017, the country’s reserves barely covered two months’ worth of imports, the minimum recommended by the IMF.
Meanwhile, the 2016/17 budget deficit was 3.3% of GDP, the highest since 2006/7, financed by more debt and foreign currency expenditures. And despite its strong growth, the economy still relies on unfinished basic goods such as coffee (30.4% of exports in 2016/17), oilseeds (12.1%), and pulse (9.6%).
The foreign currency shortfalls have spawned economic challenges that Ethiopia cannot solve on its own, so it has looked to foreign patrons for assistance, particularly Beijing. In 2016, China was the largest purchaser of Ethiopian goods (12.5%) and its largest import partner (31.6%, nearly four times more than any other country). It is also the largest foreign investor, accounting for around 25% of Ethiopia’s 5,217 direct investment projects. Yet Beijing is the country’s largest creditor as well—from FY 2012/13 to 2015/16 it provided $4.6 billion, or 29.5% of all of Ethiopia’s loans. This included $1.2 billion to fund a transmission line for the dam.
Other patrons have helped as well. Ethiopia has asked Saudi Arabia for a year’s supply of fuel with payment deferred, while the United Arab Emirates promised $3 billion in aid this June, immediately depositing $1 billion in the central bank. Both countries are also important trading partners, becoming the fourth- and ninth-largest purchasers of Ethiopian goods (6.7% and 3.3% respectively) in 2016. And earlier this month, Prime Minister Abiy revealed that the World Bank would provide $1 billion for the budget.
Slowing the Dam
The drop in foreign currency has strained the dam project, leaving Ethiopia unable to pay suppliers. As a result, Salini Impreglio—the Italian company tasked with building the dam—is believed to have slowed the pace of construction.
Yet the project has been plagued by avoidable non-economic problems as well.
To conserve foreign currency and give its engineers valuable public works experience, Ethiopia allocated a large share of the project to local firms. In a July 31 article for Ethiopia Insight, however, William Davidson noted that the domestic Metals and Engineering Corporation [METEC] lacks the capacity to perform its assigned task, failing to install even one of the dam’s sixteen turbines and thereby delaying Salini’s electromechanical work.
According to the Salini website, the project was slated to wrap up in May 2017, but it is only around 65% done. Even this figure is misleading because the bulk of the completed tasks fell within the relatively easy earthwork phase; the more complex turbine installation and powerhouse labor remain.
Corruption may also have played a role in the project’s postponement—and perhaps in Bekele’s death. The day he died, he was slated to provide an update on the delays, possibly naming individuals who have illicitly benefited from the project.
Another suspicious death occurred in May, when Deep Kamra—an executive from Dangote, the Nigerian company supplying the dam’s cement—was killed while visiting a restive region of Ethiopia.
Such factors may explain why the prime minister sought to temper expectations about the dam last month. His ten-year completion estimate likely alluded to both completing the dam itself (projected to take another three years) and filling the reservoir (probably seven years, but see below for more on this matter).
His comments also shed light on the government’s new priorities. Once a point of national pride symbolizing autarky and regional importance, the dam has been shunted to the side as Abiy focuses on the peace process with Eritrea and domestic reforms. His freewheeling policies threaten the vested interests of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front [TPLF], which has long dominated the authoritarian country and may have been involved in a June 23 assassination attempt against him.
Helping Egypt Resolve the Dispute
Egypt can use Abiy’s changing priorities and the turmoil surrounding Bekele’s death as an opportunity to devise a new water strategy, but it will likely need U.S. diplomatic muscle to carry it out. A good first step is to document exactly how much water the country actually needs to draw from the Nile.
The government’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics noted that Egypt consumed 76.3 bcm of water in FY 2015/16, a figure that includes non-Nile sources. Under a 1959 agreement with Sudan, it is apportioned 55 bcm annually from the river. Yet the Sudanese do not use their entire allotment, so international experts believe Egypt currently draws up to 65 bcm.
As for the dam’s effects, the Nile’s flow will fall drastically during the reservoir’s filling period, forcing Egypt to make up for these annual losses. Thus far, the government plans to increase desalinization fivefold over the next three years, while the prime minister noted in 2016 that Cairo would increase efforts to recycle sewage water and line canals. It has also begun enforcing restrictions on planting water-intensive commodities like rice while encouraging the consumption of grains such as quinoa, which require less water. Such measures are a good start, but they will only save about 5-7 bcm of water per year—not enough to offset the reservoir’s filling period.
While Egypt and Ethiopia have a good relationship and are trying to find a solution amicably, they have not made much headway. The biggest remaining issue this late in the dam’s construction is the reservoir filling period.
Egypt would like to prolong it as much as possible to lessen the annual decrease in Nile water supplies, with local media pushing for seven to ten years. Before his death, however, Bekele projected completing it in five to six.
To break the stalemate, Washington should urge both sides to accept a seven-year filling period, balancing Ethiopia’s need to produce speedy returns on its investment with the damage an accelerated timetable could cause to Egypt.
U.S. officials could also help arrange an international aid package of water-intensive crops such as alfalfa, garlic, and henna, allowing Egypt to preserve precious resources. The dam is a worthwhile project that will provide cheaper electricity to some of the world’s most impoverished nations, but their gains should not come at the expense of destitute Egyptian farmers and the stability of the world’s most populous Arab state.
Barak Barfi is a research fellow at New America, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs.
The euphoric jubilation in the streets of Asmara and Addis Ababa that we have witnessed in the last few weeks is the Eritrean and Ethiopian peoples’ affirmation and celebration of the peace overtures made by PM Abiy.
The stoic Ethiopian and Eritrean people, young and old, men and women, dancing and singing unabashedly in the streets and public spaces are expressing their strong longing for peaceful and fraternal relations—a longing which they have not been able to express in public for the last 20 years. It is a genuine endorsement of the commitment of the two leaders to lead them out of the quagmire.
Abiy rose up from the mass upheaval of the Ethiopian youth struggle against TPLF/EPRDF dominated corruption, political machinations, disintegration and hopelessness to lead a peaceful yet fundamental revolution.
Isaias represents the indomitable spirit of the Eritrean struggle for liberation, still standing against all odds.
Within a few weeks, in a miraculous shift, despair and pessimism have given way to hope. This hope found articulation in a rising young political maverick, Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed. His message of peace and unity, medemer, has swept Ethiopian and Eritrean communities at home and in the diaspora.
The swift actions taken by both sides to normalize relations after two decades of the no-war-no-peace regime has created an emotional human drama: the celebrations welcoming PM Abiy to Asmara and President Isaias to Addis, long separated family members dancing in tears on the tarmacs of airports, and even people calling random numbers across the border to express love and goodwill.
The scene has mesmerized even the international media and the international public at large which is used to seeing frequent atrocities in this region. What just a few weeks ago seemed like an insurmountable wall of hate and acrimony between Eritrea and Ethiopia has dissipated as if it had been a mirage.
Yet despite the overflow of joy, we should not forget the bitter cost paid during the twenty long years it took us to get here. Nor should we forget that this is only the beginning of a long hard journey. To see through the fog into a brighter future we must re-examine our path through our dark history with contrition. As Maya Angelou said, “History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again.”
The Horn of Africa is one of the most conflict-ridden regions in the world. The Ethio-Eritrea conflict that has continued unabated for three-quarter of a century, bleeds directly or indirectly into all the violent intrastate and interstate conflicts raging across the Horn of Africa.
The thirty-year devastating war for independence [1960 – 1991], the 1998 -2000 border war and the eighteen years of “no-war no-peace” that has succeeded it have been the inexhaustible fuel that has been feeding the inferno consuming this region. The cost of this conflict is mind-numbing. Hundreds of thousands have died. Millions have been forced into abject refugee life. Villages have been razed to the ground, fragile ecosystem scorched, farmlands strewn by landmines rendered uncultivable, infrastructures deliberately destroyed. Billions of dollars have been spent in military endeavors while the people die en masse from famine and suffer from lack of basic human necessities. Pulled by this conflict into an abyss, both states are at the bottom of the ladder in social, political and economic development scales.
TPLF is the main architect of the sinister “no-war no-peace” regime
Meles and his compadres were skillful tacticians but unfortunately poor strategists. This is not due to lack of intelligence but rather to their tenuous hold on state power in Ethiopia. A political faction which hailed from a marginalized ethnic minority, which had been playing second fiddle to EPLF for the most part of its existence, was suddenly catapulted to a dominant position in the Ethiopian state. They consolidated their chokehold on the Ethiopian state with the departure of Eritrea and the EPLF.
The TPLF inherited the bounty of the Ethiopian empire, while EPLF had to deal with a war-torn weary state. The former comrades in arms turned into deadly rivals. The US cast the deciding vote when it picked TPLF as its strategic ally in the Horn of Africa.
Once EPLF departed, the interparty rivalry turned into an intraparty duel between the Meles Zenawi faction and the Seye Abraha and Gebru Assrat faction. Seye and Gebru’s faction hoped to catapult themselves into dominance by waving the banner of defending Ethiopia’s sovereignty against alleged Eritrean domination and rallying the “Greater Ethiopia nationalists” who were deeply saddened by Eritrea’s succession and the loss of Massawa and Assab ports.
Gebru in his book dubiously titled “Sovereignty and Democracy” self-flagellated for supposedly being misled and indoctrinated into denying the “true history of Ethiopia and Eritrea.” This is notwithstanding that he had been one of the founders of TPLF and a senior member of the central committee and had fought side by side with the ELF in support of Eritrea’s independence. Gebru’s numerous speeches and writings epitomize the deep-rooted legacy of political deception of TPLF and the essence of its divide and rule policy in both provoking the war and playing the victim.
EPLF arrogantly took the bait when it responded by sending its armed forces to the conflict zone to confront the TPLF militias. The wounded Ethiopian national pride roared to life. Gebru and Seye reached the apex of political power while the lives of a million poor Ethiopians and Eritreans was turned upside down.
A journalist characterized the war as “two bold men fighting over a comb.” The Amharic saying “kit gelbo ras tkenanbo’” (“Bearing your ass to cover your head”) expresses even better the idiocy of two states who could not feed their people recklessly expend so much on a war to defend national pride.
When dreams of easy military victory dissipated and the realization of unsustainable losses on both sides set in, the war crept into a stalemate. The two states were cajoled by the international community into resolving their violent conflict through binding arbitration.
On December 12, 2000, Eritrea and Ethiopia signed the Algiers Peace Agreement. The Agreement mandated an Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) to delimit and demarcate the border “based on pertinent colonial treaties (1900, 1902, and 1908) and applicable international law.”
On April 13, 2002, The Eritrea – Ethiopia Boundary Commission in a 135-page unanimous ruling, rendered its “final and binding” delimitation decision. Within hours, Ethiopia accepted the ruling, declaring it “fair and appropriate,” hoping Eritrea would not accept and hence stand out as intransigent. But Eritrea fully accepted the Ruling and demanded its implementation. A month later the TPLF regime reversed its position and reneged on its obligation.
If Ethiopia had accepted and implemented this ruling at that time, today instead of talking about boundary demarcation, we would have been talking about more fundamental political and economic integrations between the two states.
If military victory had been attainable, Gebru and Seye, the main drivers of the war, would have remained at the helm and Meles would have been in exile or worse eliminated. The Stalemate in the savagely fought war enabled Melese Zenawi to bounce back into power while Seye and Gebru faction was purged from TPLF.
Melese Instead of taking the Algiers’s accord to peacefully resolve this abominable war chose to continue it under the “no-war no-peace” regime. The underpinning of Meles’ “no-war no-peace” regime was based on the calculation that, since military victory is unattainable, he would ignore the agreement and continue with a tense military standoff without direct engagement.
Ethiopia, with a hundred million population and larger resources, would be able to withstand the cost of indefinite military mobilization, while Eritrea, with a five million population and war-torn economy, would crumble. To that end, he reneged on the ruling by setting conditions which would practically annul the Algiers Agreement, hence, the “no-peace no-war” regime came into de-facto existence.
Meles’s calculations failed to take into consideration the two most important factors: the determination of the Eritrean people to persevere hardship, to preserve their hard-fought independence and the burden of underdevelopment, poverty and political vulnerabilities protracted military mobilization would create on Ethiopia.
Though the UN, AU and the US were guarantors to the Algiers Agreement, they were either unwilling or unable to put pressure on Ethiopia to honor the legal and binding ruling. To make matters worse, the US and Eritrea become at a loggerhead because Eritrea would not bend to US policy in the region. Meles scored a tactical victory over Isaias. Ethiopia gained military and economic advantages as the US’s strategical ally, while Eritrea suffered isolation, sanctions, and economic hardships.
However, both sides lost because the “no-war no-peace” policy made the rift between these fraternal peoples much wider and deeper and it arrested social economic and political development the people on both sides direly needed.
The rise of amazing consensus in support of the peace overture
TPLF’s chokehold on the Ethiopian state’s apparatus has been shattered by the popular mass uprising that has swept the country in the last three years. Team Abiy/Lema of OPDO became the dominant group in the EPRDF coalition. As a result, one of the main pillars of the TPLF’s policies–“no war no peace”–is being replaced by a new initiative for peace.
On June 13, 2018, EPRDF Executive Committee under Dr. Abiy voted 27 to 0 to accept the Algiers Peace Accord and implement the EEBC ruling “without preconditions” – 16 years after the adjudication. Dr. Abiy’s passionate speeches extolling peace, love, and reconciliation has fired the long-subdued spirit of the people on both sides of the border.
Two weeks later, President Isaias came out in strong support of Dr. Abiy’s initiative. Amazingly he declared that he would send a peace delegation to Addis Ababa. For the two regimes, world-renowned for their stubbornness and belligerence, to be willing to deal directly with each other without an intermediary is a sea of change. Both regimes have come to realize that their future existence as states depends on resolving their intractable conflicts peacefully and legally. Abiy’s initiative and Isaias’s unprecedented response resonates with the will and aspiration of both Eritrean and Ethiopian people to live side by side peacefully and fraternally.
Meanwhile, TPLF is hopelessly replaying its old tired game of political deception and divide to rule. Instead of endorsing this peace initiative and being part of the reconciliation, it is trying to derail it. In its hastily assembled central committee meeting of the TPLF held in Mekele a few days after the EPRDF EC declaration, it came out with a dubious statement.
On the one hand, it declared support for the EPRDF EC decision, while on the other hand, it condemned it for being hasty and lacking consultation. This despite the fact that TPLF is fully represented in the EPRDF EC and its representatives voted for the resolution. This is the usual two-faced political maneuver that TPLF pulls whenever it is in crisis.
The Ethiopian oppositions groups have wholeheartedly endorsed Abiy’s call. The only exceptions are some diehard nationalists who are pushing to reclaim Assab by force or/and political pressure. They reject the peace overture because they fear accepting the Algiers Agreement legitimizes the existing boundary. For many of these individuals, even after twenty-seven years, accepting Eritrea as an independent state is hard to swallow. Proponents of this line used to be a dominant faction of the opposition, particularly in the diaspora, however, its ranks have withered away.
Most people realize that it is not lack of ports, rather it is the lack of peace and good governance which is the existential threat to Ethiopia. The Ethiopia and Eritrea border has been resolved according to international law. Assab and Massawa should no longer be a cause of endless devastating conflict. Instead, they should be economic focal points that bring together the two countries in a prosperous and enduring economic alliance.
On the Eritrean side, supporters and opponents of the regime alike, the support for the peace overture is unanimous. However, ambiguity prevails on the side of highly fractured opposition because some fear that peace would strengthen Isais’s rule. This is a rather circular argument because it was the state of war which have been used as grounds to curtail civil liberty in Eritrea. The Eritrean people have persevered through economic hardship and tolerated deferment of their emancipation to preserve their hard-won independence. It is one of the main reasons why the opposition organizations failed to gain a meaningful following in the country.
The Eritrean opposition, which is obsessed about splitting into factions on major and minor issues, should humble itself and learn the lesson that striving for unity, medemer, peace, and reconciliation is a potent force for change. Peace is not going to solve all the mindboggling problems that beset Eritrean and Ethiopian societies but it is a fundamental requisite.
Missed opportunities to peacefully and holistically resolve the Ethio-Eritrea conflict
The 1952-1962 Federation presented Ethiopia with a great opportunity: outlets to the sea, Eritrea’s modern infrastructure, and Eritrean skilled labor. For the fractured and contentious Eritrean elites, between dismemberment or outright annexation, the Federation was a palatable choice. Instead of transforming Ethiopia into a constitutional monarchy by using the Eritrean liberal democratic constitution as inspiration, Haile Selassie made the arrogant and short-sighted decision to revoke the federation and reduce Eritrea into a province in his feudal empire. This unleashed a strong Eritrean nationalist rebellion and consequently an armed struggle. His response, backed with US military largesse, was mass incarceration of Eritrean youth, torture, exile and elimination of the nascent Eritrean intelligentsia. When the rebellion progressed to full-fledged armed struggle, he responded with a scorched earth policy. The cost for Ethiopia and Eritrea in term of lost opportunities in economic, political and social development is staggering. The cost Emperor Haile Selassie had to pay for his hubris was an ignominious death in the uprising of which the Eritrean struggle was a very important factor.
The 1974 Ethiopian uprising for economic democratic revolution was subverted by the derge’s coup. The response of the fascistic derge to the Eritrean struggle was dumb, arrogant, inhumane and utterly devastating. Backed with an unprecedent degree of military aid and direct involvement of the defunct Soviet Union, it aspired to annihilate the Eritrean resistance once and for all. However, the end result was its own demise at the hands of EPLF and TPLF. Again, the economic devastation, political degeneration and institutional disintegration of a protracted war led to famine, human misery and suffering of biblical magnitude.
The 1993 Eritreans in a United Nation sponsored referendum voted for their independence and Ethiopia magnanimously accepted. Eritrea became a full-fledged member state of AU and UN. It was a glorious moment. The wounds of Africa’s longest armed conflict were healing fast. Peace dividends flourished. The prestige of the two counties and their leaders sky rocketed. The economic advantages of the people’s mobility between the two states reached a high mark. But the fast pace of change and economic growth engendered a petty rivalry between the ascending power elites. The bright hope and promise of the reconstructing economies was sadly dashed when rivalry between the groups escalated to a savage senseless interstate war.
The 1998 – 2000 border war. Although it lasted only two years, the psychological and economic devastation was greater than what had proceeded it. 100,000 Eritrean and Ethiopian youths were sacrificed, over two million people on both sides were dislocated, and infrastructure and farms and industries were deliberately destroyed.
The 2000 – 2018 No peace no war regime. The last 18 years could be characterized as a period of paralysis, stagnation and disintegration of both states albeit to a different degree and consequence. The political and economic isolation of Eritrea spearheaded by the TPLF, with the aid of the US, was aimed at bringing down the EPLF regime. Until a few months ago, blog sites were filled with self-fulfilling prophesies about the eminent collapse of Eritrea and the triumph of Ethiopia. The reality proved to the contrary. It is the PFDJ which is standing while TPLF’s power base has collapsed dramatically.
The 2018 Will Abye’s peace overtures be another missed opportunity? Neither the two countries nor the region can afford another failure. Failure would be devastating. We count on the genuine mass support expressed unequivocally by the Ethiopians and Eritreans people in the last few weeks to be the guarantor for its success. In my long period of political involvement in this region, I have witnessed only a few periods of popular euphoria and unanimity of such magnitude.
Tigray is a bridge not a wedge between Ethiopia and Eritrea
The People of Tigray are the major victims of TPLF’s divide and rule policy. It has put them at loggerheads with Eritreans to the north, the Amhara to the west and south and the Afar to the east. It is a deliberate policy, sometimes dubbed as “plan B,” to make Tigray a perpetual bastion of TPLF.
The objective goal of this tactic is to make the Tigray people feel vulnerable, hence, the servile support base for TPLF. The Tigrayan intelligentsia should have been able to see through these shenanigans and exposed them long time ago. Yet sadly, particularly many in the diaspora, they are being manipulated to kowtow to this abominable policy in the name of Tigray nationalism and pride.
Who has suffered more from this long drawn out conflict than the poor Tigrayans and Eritreans? Which ethnicity or region has paid more in human sacrifice, suffered more dislocation than these hapless cousins? Whose fragile farmland has been ruined by tanks and infested with mines like theirs? Whose economic potential has been more arrested? Who lived for decades under the threat of calamitous war as they have? Shouldn’t the border towns of Tigray and Eritrea be centers of thriving trade rather than sad military outposts? Who is to blame? What is to be gained? Why weren’t the people of Tigray in the forefront petitioning their leaders to end the “no war no peace” regime? Even now TPLF is trying to mischaracterize this malaise as defending Tigrayan interests.
The current love fest between Ethiopia and Eritrea is the death knell to TPLF hegemony. It is a total rejection and repudiation of their divide and rule legacy. Their posturing as defenders of Ethiopia’s sovereignty against hapless Eritrea and peacekeeper between the feuding ethnic groups of Ethiopia has been swept away by the popular tsunami that that has engulfed Ethiopia. The Ethio-Eritrea love train is the shining beacon of hope.
TPLF leadership instead of hopping on this love train of reconciliation and peace, are plotting to derail it. Their plans and tactics are a replay of the maneuvers that led to the 1998 border war–pretend to accept the peace process while throwing a monkey wrench into it. This time very few are duped.
The chameleon role being played by Dr. Debretsion, TPLF’s party chairman, epitomizes this stance. In his June 22nd interview, he outlined the game plan which can be summarized as:
We accept the EPRDF executive committee stand to unconditionally accept and implement the Algiers resolution, yet we condemn it because it is done without consultation,
We call for an “extended” EPRDF meeting to discuss the matter with the hope of torpedoing the resolution by bringing more allies,
Bademe is Tigray’s issue, not a national issue, TPLF, as representative of the people of Tigray, should be the leading negotiator.
It is a border issue; no it is sovereignty issue,
TPLF accepts unconditionally the Algiers’s Agreement, no we stand by the repudiated ‘five points for renegotiation’.
Dr. Debretsion even went so far as saying that the Algiers Agreement is “null and void”. As for the party, TPLF started organizing demonstrations against the peace overtures and then made a 180-degree turn by organizing a big rally at Mekele Stadium allegedly, inter alia, to express support for peace with Eritrea. This flip-flopping simply reflects the pathetic situation the one-time master of deception TPLF finds itself in today.
For TPLF peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not about border issue or defending the interest of the people of Tigray, rather, it is about desperately hanging to power and convincing its shocked supporters that it is still relevant. Yet it is doing it the negative way. Instead of absolving itself from its predatory role in a truly substantive way, it has chosen to replay its failed tricks which don’t even impress its ardent supporters.
TPLF leadership is down but not out. They cannot ever dominate Ethiopia’s politics the way they did before, but they can surely play a disruptive role. Anyone who underestimates TPLF leadership does so at his own peril.
The main force that could effectively deal with TPLF is the people of Tigray. People of Tigray, the TPLF’s leadership policy of divide and rule is your liability. They have gained like bandits, which they are, but you are left with the liability. Their gain has come at a great loss to you today and your offspring tomorrow. It is time to see the reality with wide open eyes and take your place on the side of those who stand for lasting peace, justice and fraternity and work for the common good. Choose among your bright and honorable youth to represent you at this crucial juncture of history.
Likewise, the wholesale castigation by some Eritrean and Ethiopian elites of the Tigray population for the evils perpetrated by TPLF leadership policies and actions is wrong-headed as it creates an obstacle to unit all the stakeholders for peace. […]
Peace and Fraternity to Ethiopian and Eritrean people!
“The implementation of the Joint Peace and Friendship Declaration between Eritrea and Ethiopia New Year gift for both countries”
BY SHABAIT
The Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy Ahmed said that the implementation of the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship signed by Eritrea and Ethiopia is New Year gift for the peoples of both countries.
Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed arrived in the morning hours of today, 5 September, on a stopover, two-day visit in Eritrea on his way back home from the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit.
Upon arrival at the Assab Airport, Dr. Abiy and his delegation that comprised Dr. Werkneh Gebeyehu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, were accorded warm welcome by President Isaias Afwerki, senior government officials and Army Commanders.
President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy and his delegation visited the Assab Port and traveled by vehicles from Assab to the Ethiopian border town of Bure and confirmed that the road is in good condition.
Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed arrived in Massawa accompanied by President Isaias Afewerki and visited the port facilities and the Ethiopian Commercial Ship that docked in Massawa Port after 20 years.
Speaking to the Eritrean national media outlets, Dr. Abiy said that he was able to observe that the Assab Port is under maintenance in order to provide full service and the Massawa Port ready for providing service to Ethiopia.
Dr. Abiy went on to say that the beginning of the Ethiopian Airlines regular flight coupled with the ongoing roads renovation to start land transportation service will have significant contribution in the strengthening of the relation between the two countries.
Dr. Abiy also said that the implementation of all five pillars of the agreement is good news not only for the officials of both countries that have been engaged in the process but also for the international community and congratulated the peoples of both countries.
During his stay in Eritrea, Dr. Abiy Ahmed will hold an extensive discussion with President Isaias on the implementation of the agreement signed between the two countries.
President of Somalia Arrives in Asmara
The three leaders will hold a tripartite Summit this evening on the enhancement of regional ties of friendship and partnership.
BY SHABAIT
President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed of the Federal Republic of Somalia has arrived in Asmara in the evening hours of today, 5 September.
Upon arrival at the Asmara International Airport, President Mohammed Abdullahi was welcomed by President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed.
President Isaias Afwerki, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Mohammed Abdullahi will conduct a tripartite discussion on the development of relations and cooperation in the region.
It is to be recalled that during the official visit President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed conducted to Eritrea from 28-30 July, the two countries signed four pillars joint declaration on brotherly relations and comprehensive cooperation.
“This is the season for peace in the Horn of Africa and this peace should be inclusive to all” – FM Osman Saleh
Eritrea and Djibouti have agreed to normalize ties following a new initiative that was taken by a Joint High-Level Committee established by Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia at the Tripartite Summit in Asmara.
Eritrea and Djibouti have agreed to normalize ties a decade after a border dispute led to brief military clashes, officials said on Thursday after a regional summit.
Fighting erupted along the disputed Dumeira area after Djibouti accused Asmara of sending troops across the border. The Red Sea neighbours have been at odds ever since.
“After a long period of separation, Eritrea and Djibouti have agreed to restore ties,” Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Workneh Gebeyehu said on his Facebook page.
He spoke after delegations from Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea met in Djibouti, where they also held discussions with President Ismail Guelleh.
On Twitter, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskal said Guelleh told the ministers: “Djibouti is ready for reconciliation and formalization of its ties with Eritrea.”
The rapprochement follows the dramatic thaw in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which declared an end to their state of war in July and agreed to open embassies, develop ports and resume flights between the two countries after decades of hostilities.
Eritrea has been subjected to a U.N. arms embargo since 2009 over allegations that it provided support to militants in Somalia and for failing to pull troops out of disputed territory with Djibouti. Asmara denies accusations it backed Somali insurgents.
Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said: “With the truthful willingness demonstrated by Eritrea and Djibouti to make peace, all other pending issues will find their way to resolution.”
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Meanwhile, Ethiopia reopened its embassy in the Eritrean capital Asmara on Thursday.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has presided over widespread reforms since his appointment in April, had earlier met Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki for his second face-to-face meeting since the July accord.
A day earlier, an Ethiopian ship docked in an Eritrean port for the first time in two decades and Eritrea announced plans to upgrade a road to its neighbor.
Joint High-Level Committee of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia meeting with Djibouti Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday welcomed the visit by foreign ministers of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia to Djibouti.
Guterres said the agreement reached among the four ministers to work together to restore peace and stability in the region is a positive example for the region and beyond.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday welcomed the visit by foreign ministers of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia to Djibouti, hailing it as “another important step” in the rapprochement among the countries in the Horn of Africa region.
In a statement through his spokesperson Stephane Dujarric, Guterres said the agreement reached among the four ministers to work together to restore peace and stability in the region is a positive example for the region and beyond, Xinhua reported.
He reiterated the readiness of the UN to support countries in the region in consolidating the recent “remarkable” gains.
As a result of the visit on Thursday, Eritrea and Djibouti agreed to normalize relations after a decade of diplomatic stalemate. The two countries have a border dispute extending back to 2008.
The Horn of Africa region has seen a number of diplomatic thaws since Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in June decided to fully accept a 2002 border deal that followed a 1998-2000 war with Eritrea.
Restored diplomatic ties quickly followed.
Eritrea and Somalia in late July also agreed to restore diplomatic ties.
Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders visited their common border to celebrate Ethiopian new year together with their troops.
BY TESFANEWS
As part of Geez new year celebration and following the full realization of normalization of relations, the Ethiopian and Eritrean armed forces met for the first time in 20 years to clear landmines, open the border crossings and celebrate the holiday together.
Tuesday, September 11, 2018, marks the first day of the 2011 Ethiopian New Year, which is 7 – 8 years behind the Gregorian calendar.
Members of the defense forces have met yesterday at the Zalambesa border to coordinate the get-together party on the Ethiopian side of the border.
Meanwhile, President Isaias Afwerki and PM Abiy Ahmed also made a joint visit to the Eritrean side of the Bure border near Assab port to celebrate the holiday with the troops.
“PM Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki are visiting Bure Front along Ethio-Eritrea border to celebrate the New Year with members of the Ethiopian and Eritrean Defense Forces following the full normalization of the relations between the two countries,” said Fitsum Arega, PM Abiy’s Chief of Staff, on Twitter.
During a speech he made on the eve of the holiday, PM Abiy congratulates both the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea and announce that the two country’s armed forces will celebrate the new year holiday together at the frontline.
According to the Eritrean State television, President Isaias and PM Abiy officially opened the Debay Sima – Burre border point today for road connectivity between the two countries.
The two leaders will arrive in Asmara shortly and proceed to open the Serha-Zalambesa border.
The joint celebration and reopening of borders are the latest in a series of rapid changes as relations between the two countries strengthened.
In July, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki signed a declaration saying that the state of war between the two countries was over.
Since then, phone calls and flights between the two countries resumed, and last week an Ethiopian cargo ship arrived in the Eritrean port of Massawa to load zinc ores destined to China.
The two countries have also reopened their embassies in each others’ capital cities.
What is believed to come next is the complete withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from all the Eritrean territories.
PM Abiy said complete demilitarisation of Eritrea, Ethiopia border to start as of today
BY TESFANEWS *
Ethiopian and Eritrean troops stationed on both sides of the shared border are ordered to withdraw and move back to camps, shortly after the countries officially opened the borders following two decades of tensions.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told reporters upon return to Addis Ababa from Eritrea that to ease the tense atmosphere that existed in border areas for nearly 20 years, Ethiopian Defense Forces will return to their camps.
“As of today, Ethiopia’s defense forces (along with the border with Eritrea) will be gathered to camps. The same will be done from the Eritrean side.”
PM Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki marked the Ethiopian new year on Tuesday by opening two border posts for the first time in 20 years while emotional people embraced after the long separation.
“We heralded the new year by demolishing the trenches along our border,” Abiy told reporters.
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane G/Meskel in a post on Twitter says Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed have opened the border point at Bure for “road transport connectivity” and later will conduct a similar ceremony at the Serha-Zalambesa crossing.
The leaders have been celebrating their recent diplomatic thaw by marking the Ethiopian new year at their border.
The once-bitter rivals in recent weeks have restored diplomatic and other ties shortly after Abiy taking office and announced that Ethiopia would fully embrace a peace deal that ended a 1998-2000 border war.
Will an Ethiopian/Eritrean alliance really be able to bring the change so desperately needed in South Sudan?
BY THOMAS C MOUNTAIN
All roads to peace in the Horn of Africa seem to run through the Eritrean capital of Asmara these days, with the latest peace initiative allying Ethiopia and Eritrea looking like it will be bringing peace to South Sudan.
To understand the South Sudan civil war, you must look no further than the Chinese oil fields, the only such owned and operated in Africa, and one of the first targets of the rebellion/coup attempt over 5 years ago.
The only beneficiary from the South Sudan civil war has been the USA, for China has seen all of its ambitious plans for further development of its one and only energy field shut down.
No one, outside of the Eritrean President Issias Aferworki, has pointed the finger of blame for this conflagration where it belongs, at “foreign powers” aka the Central Intelligence Agency without whose $10 million a month for the past 60 months there would have been no functioning rebel army.
Soldiers got to get paid, at least $300 a month and with some 20,000 rebel military (all former South Sudan regular army) the monthly nut to keep a war going is big enough to have to be a deep pocket operation, $600 million and counting so far.
No one else has access to this kind of cash but the Man aka the Central Intelligence Agency.
One of the main demands of the rebels has been to shut down Chinese oil operations in the country. Gee, whose national interest is this in? Certainly not South Sudanese, whose very survival depends on these oil wells.
Fast forward to the soft coup and “peaceful revolution” in Ethiopia, whose former gangster government did the CIA’s bidding in funneling the dirty money to pay for the rebellion in South Sudan.
With the Tigrayan ethnic minority regime no longer in power, as in “Game Over”, the handwriting is on the wall, it looks like the jig is up, for who can the CIA count on now to launder its filthy, bloodstained lucre? Not the usual client regimes like Uganda or Kenya, both of whose economies were damaged by the civil war in South Sudan. The CIA is certainly not going to trust hard currency-strapped President Bashir of Sudan to pass the cash, not with hundreds of millions being involved.
So maybe, just maybe, this evil spawn of Babylon, the CIA’s Dirty War in South Sudan, USA vs. China, might soon come to an end.
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir was here in Asmara to finalize the peace deal, looking almost stunned that peace had finally come to pass. As Eritrean President Isaias Aferwerki laid out the future peace for all to see, Dr. Abiy in Ethiopia made sure no more cash or weapons is funneled by the CIA to the rebellion. With families to feed the rebels need to collect a salary and have little choice but to accept reintegration into the South Sudanese regular army.
Once this critical step is complete, a real peace can take hold, though one should not underestimate the deviousness of the CIA who may yet find a way to fund rebellion amongst disgruntled elements in the newly reunited South Sudanese Army.
Still, it seems Pax Americana has come to terms with the new reality on the ground out here in the Horn of Africa, what with China making its move into the energy industry in Ethiopia, building a multi-billion $$ natural gas pipeline to extract and export the estimated 4 trillion cubic meters lying beneath the Ethiopian Ogaden.
Now that a ceasefire has been reached between the Ogadeni fighters and Ethiopian PM Abiy’s government, again, signed here in Asmara, Ethiopia can start to use its massive energy reserves and begin to wean itself from bankrupting foreign currency drains for energy purchases.
The leaders of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea have all gathered in where else but Asmara, and signed, sealed and started to deliver on peace and economic cooperation. Even the Godfather in Djibouti, who cried foul when the Somali President visited Asmara has had to sign the normalization of relations agreement with Eritrea.
And all of this absent anyone from any of the major imperial powers, strictly an African accomplishment though China has pledged many billion$ to keep Ethiopia afloat in its sea of debt, mainly to the western banks.
Real Pan Africanism has been a dream since the end of WW2, where African countries work together for their mutual people’s benefit and not allow the imperial bloodsuckers to continue their predations.
With a wave of peace sweeping across the Horn of Africa, what is left is on the ground economic development that will begin to lift some of the most war and famine blighted people on the planet out of their destitution. Will an Ethiopian/Eritrean alliance really be able to bring the change so desperately needed?
Thomas C. Mountain is an independent journalist in Eritrea, living and reporting from here since 2006. See thomascmountain on Facebook, thomascmountain on Twitter or best reach him at thomascmountain at g mail dot com
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed a much-anticipated peace deal at a regional summit in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa today.
BY AGENCIES *
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed a peace agreement on Wednesday in the margins of a regional summit in Ethiopia.
South Sudan plunged into warfare two years after gaining independence from Sudan in 2011 when a political dispute between Kiir and Machar exploded into military confrontation.
A previous peace deal signed in 2015 fell apart a year later after clashes broke out between government forces and rebels, forcing Machar to leave Juba.
The new agreement, mediated by Sudan, reinstates Machar, a former vice-president, to his former role.
The presidents of Uganda and Sudan were present at the summit that was chaired by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
“The eyes of the world are upon us as the South Sudan leaders commit today to press for reconciliation and lasting peace in their country,” Abiy said at the start of a brief but delayed closed door meeting after which Kiir and Machar emerged to sign the document.
“Today we hope to begin a new chapter and a new opportunity to build a lasting peace and stability in the Republic of South Sudan,” said Festus Mogae, a former president of Botswana who leads a ceasefire monitoring body set up by the regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that has brokered successive rounds of talks.
David Shearer, head of the UN Mission in South Sudan, echoed the hopes of ending the nearly five-year-old conflict that has cost the lives of tens of thousands of people, pushed millions to the brink of starvation and triggered a regional refugee crisis.
But he sounded a note of caution, saying, “With the signing of this revitalized agreement, we should publicly acknowledge it is but one step on the road to peace, but one which lays the foundation for all that follows.”
The United States, Britain, and Norway, known as the Troika which oversees peace efforts, welcomed the signature of the deal by Kiir, Machar and other groups.
“We hope discussions will remain open to those who are not yet convinced of the sustainability of this agreement,” they said in a statement. “We must seize this broader regional momentum to secure peace for the people of South Sudan.”
Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry met in Asmara today with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and deliver a message from President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi aiming at boosting bilateral relations between the two countries.
The visit comes following the existing outstanding relations between Cairo and Asmara and the signing of six agreements, including the construction of three electric power plants in Eritrea.
Besides the security of the Red Sea, President Isaias and FM Shoukry also discussed on the peace and friendship accord signed between Eritrea and Ethiopia as well as on the implementation of the tripartite agreement signed between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Indicating that President Isaias Afwerki and President Al Sisi have common position on most of the issues raised, FM Shoukry said that strengthening bilateral relations between Eritrea and Egypt will have significant contribution in the development of economic and security sectors and others as well as in the peace process in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin.
The Head of Political Affairs and Presidential Adviser, Mr. Yemane Gebreab, on his part stated that the visit of Mr. Sameh Shoukry is in continuation of the continuous meetings and consultations between the two countries and that Egypt has important role in the peace and stability in the region.
Mr. Yemane also underlined that Eritrea supports the effort of President Abdul Fattah Sisi to restore the role of Egypt in the region.
سامح شكري يلتقي الرئيس الإريتري " أسياس أفورقى" في أسمرا…. وزير الخارجية نقل رسالة شفهية من الرئيس السيسى الي رئيس إريتريا تتعلق بسبل تعزيز التعاون بين البلدين و التنسيق بشأن الأوضاع في القرن الإفريقى والمنطقة pic.twitter.com/kEjhOkUJpG
* (Software translation from Arabic) Sameh Shoukry meets Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Asmara…. Minister of Foreign Affairs conveyed an oral message from President Sisi to the President of Eritrea on ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries and coordination on the situation in the Horn of Africa and the region.
Similarly, for a senior geopolitical analyst who requested anonymity, the rationale behind such rivalries in the Horn is to fill a void which is left by the US; “It all started with the military disengagement of the US from the Middle East after the Iran Nuclear deal. The Saudis felt vulnerable and wanted to fill the void created by the US disengagement using their forces and their allies.”
Despite the political and economic dynamism in the Horn, the response from Ethiopia in terms of foreign policy and strategy is not yet disclosed. However, many analysts recommend that the country should reorient its foreign policy vis-à-vis the recent development.
“On the flip side, Saudi gets military and diplomatic support against Iran, Qatar, and Turkey, while UAE gets more port business in Somalia and punishes Djibouti for its confrontation with UAE because of issues related with the cancellation of DP World port deal in Doraleh,” he concludes.
In December 2017, the country’s reserves barely covered two months’ worth of imports, the minimum recommended by the IMF.
The TPLF inherited the bounty of the Ethiopian empire, while EPLF had to deal with a war-torn weary state. The former comrades in arms turned into deadly rivals. The US cast the deciding vote when it picked TPLF as its strategic ally in the Horn of Africa.
Two weeks later, President Isaias came out in strong support of Dr. Abiy’s initiative. Amazingly he 
Most people realize that it is not lack of ports, rather it is the lack of peace and good governance which is the existential threat to Ethiopia. The Ethiopia and Eritrea border has been resolved according to international law. Assab and Massawa should no longer be a cause of endless devastating conflict. Instead, they should be economic focal points that bring together the two countries in a prosperous and enduring economic alliance.
