“We are only good at starting projects but not completing on schedule” – PM Abiy
Faced with a current account deficit of around $6 billion on top of lower export earnings and slower economic growth, PM Abiy said his government needs $7.5 billion to complete dam, road and rail projects.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has said his government needs $7.5 billion to complete ongoing mega infrastructure projects.
He was speaking in Parliament after the tabling of the 346.9 billion Ethiopian birr ($12.8 billion) 2018/19 budget that was approved by MPs on Friday afternoon.
The prime minister said state-owned enterprises are heavily-indebted and had “put at risk the economy”.
The enterprises have failed to quickly operationalize their projects and were among the reasons the country is facing a dollar shortage, he said.
“We are only good in starting the projects but not completing on schedule,” he said.
The government will not undertake any new project in the next financial year that begins on July 8 as a result.
Since taking office in April, Dr. Abiy has introduced economic reforms such as liberalizing state companies and reducing the role of the military in the economy.
He said the government must be more efficient and exercise prudent spending.
“Complementarity of both peoples and countries, their common bilateral interests, and prosperity, are sacrosanct objectives to which we have toiled and paid sacrifices for two generations. As such, it remains a priority for which we will be actively engaged.” – President Isaias Afwerki
BY TESFANEWS
The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea met Sunday morning in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara in a historic summit that heralds the end of the near 20-year military stand-off and the beginning of normalization of relations.
President Isaias warmly greeted the Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed and his high-level Ethiopian delegation at Asmara International Airport.
In a scene unimaginable just weeks ago, PM Abiy stepped from an Ethiopian Airlines plane at the airport in Asmara, greeting Isaias and hugging him graciously before the pair strode off along a red carpet.
Sunday’s meeting is the first of its kind in two decades between the leaders of the two neighbors.
Thousands of residents of Asmara took to the streets, from the airport to the State House, to greet the Ethiopian delegation with an overwhelming joy and love.
Ahead of Abiy’s arrival, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebrmeskel wrote on Twitter:
“This historic official visit, and the summit that will take place … heralds a new era of peace and cooperation.”
Abiy’s chief of staff Fitsum Arega also wrote on Twitter:
“Our two nations share a history and bond like no other. We can now overcome two decades of mistrust and move in a new direction.”
The United States Embassy in Asmara also lauds the courageous steps the two leaders took towards peace.
“Ethiopia and Eritrea have a critical role in promoting stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa. The United States looks forward to a full normalization of relations and the realization of our shared aspirations for both countries to enjoy enduring peace and development,” reads the Facebook message from the US Embassy.
Last month, a high-level Eritrean delegation visitedAddis Ababa for the first time since 1998 following PM Abiy’s announcement last month that Ethiopia will “unconditionally” accept the 2000 Algiers Agreement and the 2002 United Nations-backed boundary demarcation decisions.
“We can imagine the decisions the prime minister of Ethiopia took was not a simple one. But we can assure you we will face the future together. We will work as one.” – President Isaias
BY ASSEGID HABTEWOLD
That is why “Leadership makes or breaks” is so true! The two formerly archenemies left the animosity aside since the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, broke walls, and built bridges within a short period of time. What was the decisive factor? Leadership!
Otherwise, Meles Zenawi and Hailemariam Dessalegn both wanted to visit Asmara and meet with Isaias Afwerki desperately for years. They appealed (rather begged) themselves and also used third parties without any luck. Eritreans leader refused.
What changed now for him to go the extra mile organizing a heroic welcome to PM Abiy in his own backyard? Leadership!
Mind you, throughout the years, especially in recent years, Isaias personally showed interest to rebuild the people to people relations between the two sisterly people but showed no interest at all to resume the government-to-government relationship. Why then he extended an official visit to Abiy, came out himself and met Abiy in person at the airport, and smiled as I never saw him before? Leadership!
It doesn’t matter the educational background, age, or look of a leader. If the leader is caring, genuine, respectful, and trustworthy, he can win not just his own people but also the hearts of people who aren’t from his/her own tribe/ethnic group, religion, and nationality.
Think of Nelson Mandela, for instance. Blacks, whites, South Africans, Africans, and people outside of Africa loved him! Why? He was a loving, caring, genuine, respectful, and trustworthy leader.
Likewise, Abiy is an Oromo Christian, but people from all ethnic groups and religions love him. As you can see from the pics [above], Isaias and the people of Eritrea also love him!
I’m thankful to God who made this day possible during our lifetime! What just happened in Asmara cannot be attributed to men and women alone. This historic happening is a little short of a miracle!
A quick lesson I want you to learn just by looking at some of the pics released this morning. Do you see how close the two leaders were as they walked together? Have you noticed both having genuine and unpretentious smile on their face? Do you see both leaning forward as they sat down to chat? These are some non-verbal cues that show you that they like and trust each other!
Trust is the glue in any relationship whether in romance, business, or politics. Politicians cannot work together to benefit their respective countries and people if they don’t trust one another.
Trust was missing during Meles and Hailemariam (HMD) years. Isaias didn’t want to gamble with these guys.
Now, when he found a trustworthy leader, he didn’t hesitate a bit. I’m glad that the two trusted each other. When trust is present, leaders can quickly pass past transgressions, forget previous bad experiences fast, break thick walls, build enduring bridges, and make lasting deals,etc…
With these two leaders trusting each other, the future of the two countries and their people, and the Horn is very bright!
Dr. Assegid Habtewold is the author of “The Highest Level of Greatness” and he can be reached at ahabtewold@yahoo.com
“HE PM Dr. Abiy after his discussion with HE President Isaias confirmed the normalization of Ethio-Eritrea relations will start in earnest—flights will resume, utilization of the seaports will start and the two countries will re-open embassies in each other’s capital” – PM Abiy’s Chief of Staff.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have agreed to restore relations following a landmark meeting between the two countries’ leaders in Asmara, aimed at ending decades of diplomatic and armed strife.
The announcement on Sunday capped weeks of whirlwind change, driven by new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was welcomed for face-to-face talks in the Eritrean capital by President Isaias Afwerki.
“We agreed that the airlines will start operating, the ports will be accessible, people can move between the two countries and the embassies will be opened,” Abiy said at an official dinner.
“We will demolish the wall and, with love, build a bridge between the two countries,” Abiy continued.
The sudden rapprochement will spell an end to a years-long cold war that has hurt both countries.
The Horn of Africa nations has remained at loggerheads since Ethiopia rejected a United Nations ruling and refused to cede to Eritrea land along the countries’ border following a 1998-2000 war that killed 80,000 people.
There was no sign of that animosity on Sunday.
Abiy stepped from an Ethiopian Airlines plane at the airport in Asmara to be greeted by Isaias. The two men embraced before they strode off along a red carpet.
Out in the streets, chanting crowds cheered on the leaders’ convoy, waving the twinned flags of Ethiopia and Eritrea and spreading flowers and popcorn in a typical Eritrean tradition.
With Abiy’s comments later in the day, the meeting appeared to have achieved its touted aim of seizing “a spectacular opportunity to decidedly moving forward peace for the good of our people,” as Abiy’s chief of staff Fitsum Arega put it earlier.
Eritrea’s information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, later tweeted a photo of the two leaders huddled in a discussion, promising the meeting would, “set the tone for rapid, positive changes on the basis of respect of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The re-establishment of diplomatic and trade ties after years of bitter separation could mean big benefits for both nations, and the wider Horn of Africa region, plagued by conflict and poverty.
The East African countries fought a bloody border war that erupted in 1998. The two-year war left more than 80,000 people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.
A UN-backed peace agreement in 2000 awarded the disputed border territories to Eritrea, but the deal was never implemented.
The countries have skirmished since then in one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts.
In May this year, Ethiopia announced that it would implement the December 2000 Algiers agreement, in what was the biggest and most surprising reform yet announced by Abiy.
There are a number of disputed territories along the border and territories will move in both directions to Eritrea and Ethiopia, Matt Bryden, chairman of the Sahan think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“There are going to be communities that are likely to resist finding themselves transferred to another national jurisdiction or divided by the new border. So the implementation is something that is going to have to be handled very carefully.”
Abiy, 42, was sworn in in early April after being elected by Ethiopia’s parliament as the country’s new prime minister. He was nominated for the post by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition, which controls all the seats in the Ethiopian parliament and has been in power since 1991.
Since then, Abiy has quickly introduced a wave of reforms, releasing journalists and opposition figures from prison, opening up the state-run economy and unblocking hundreds of websites after years of anti-government protests demanding more freedoms. […]
State Dinner For Visiting Ethiopian Delegation – Part I
State Dinner For Visiting Ethiopian Delegation – Part II
The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a “joint declaration of peace and friendship”, Eritrea’s information minister said, a day after a landmark summit marked a start to normalization of ties between the longtime foes.
“The Agreement, which specifies five pillars, was signed this morning at State House by President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed,” Minister Yemane Gebremeskel wrote on Twitter on Monday alongside a photo of the two men seated at a table in front of their nations’ flags.
The first of the five pillars stated that the war that existed between the two countries has ended.
Other pillars declared that a new era of peace and friendship has been ushered and that both countries will work to promote close cooperation in political, economic, social, cultural and security areas.
In addition, transport, trade, and telecommunication ties will be resumed and diplomatic ties and activities renewed. Finally, previously made border decisions will be implemented and both countries will work together to guarantee regional peace, development, and cooperation.
The announcement capped weeks of whirlwind change, driven by new Abiy, who was welcomed for face-to-face talks in the Eritrean capital by Afwerki.
“We agreed that the airlines will start operating, the ports will be accessible, people can move between the two countries and the embassies will be opened,” Abiy said at an official dinner.
“We will demolish the wall and, with love, build a bridge between the two countries,” Abiy continued.
The sudden rapprochement ends a years-long cold war that hurt both countries.
The Horn of Africa nations remained at loggerheads since Ethiopia rejected a United Nations ruling and refused to cede to Eritrea land along the countries’ border following a 1998-2000 war that killed 80,000 people.
There was no sign of that animosity on Sunday.
Abiy stepped from an Ethiopian Airlines plane at the airport in Asmara to be greeted by Isaias. The two men embraced before they walked down a red carpet.
Out in the streets, chanting crowds cheered on the leaders’ convoy, waving the twinned flags of Ethiopia and Eritrea and spreading flowers and popcorn in a typical Eritrean tradition.
Joint Declaration states, inter alia,
i. The state of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has come to an end. A new era of peace and friendship has been opened.
ii. The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;
iii. Transport, trade and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;
iv. The decision on the boundary between the two countries will be implemented.
v. Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development, and cooperation.
Both governments express their gratitude to all friends of Eritrea and Ethiopia and call on them to redouble their solidarity and support.
Done in Asmara, July 9, 2018
For the State of Eritrea For the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
President Isaias Afwerki Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali
Looking forward to shared prosperity and development, Ethiopia and Eritrea made a historic breakthrough and agreed to end the state of war that lasted for two decades.
BY DR. FIKREJESUS AMHAZION
The following is a brief recap and commentary on the recent massive and rapid developments toward peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
1 – Ethiopia and Eritrea declared their “state of war” over on Monday and agreed to open embassies, develop ports, and resume flights. The announcement on Monday came after Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, accompanied by a small Ethiopian delegation, arrived in Asmara, Eritrea, a day earlier to engage in historic talks with the Eritrean President, H.E. Isaias Afwerki.
The Joint “Declaration of Peace and Friendship” between Eritrea and Ethiopia, signed by the two leaders in Asmara on Monday morning, states that:
The state of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has come to an end. A new era of peace and friendship has been opened.
The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;
Transport, trade and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;
The decision on the boundary between the two countries will be implemented.
Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development, and cooperation.
The agreement is only the latest step in a series of encouraging and significant developments between the two countries, after years of tension. It promises to present numerous and significant benefits for both nations, which are faced with a broad array of considerable challenges.
Moreover, a normalization of relations between the two countries will undoubtedly help promote peace, security, and stability throughout the general Horn of Africa region, which has long been plagued by conflict and poverty.
Also on Monday, the Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, who was visiting Addis Ababa, said that he believed the need for UN sanctions against Eritrea will no longer exist following its peace deal with Ethiopia.
Speaking to reporters in the Ethiopian capital, Guterres stated,
“The sanctions were motivated by a number of events that took place, (but) it is my belief that those events will no longer exist…If the reasons that led to the sanctions will no longer exist…they will naturally become obsolete.”
Additionally, an Ethiopian state-affiliated news agency announced that Ethiopian Airlines, Ethiopia’s state-owned airlines, will resume flights to Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, next week [July 18th].
2 – The benefits of peace should be significant. Both countries are faced with a number of significant challenges, and thus an end to the costly – and largely unnecessary – conflict and tension will allow the two to better focus their attention on addressing their various and considerable challenges.
For instance, with peace and stability, vital human and fiscal resources can be used to combat poverty or promote development, rather than having to be diverted toward defense and national security.
Notably, one issue in relation to the impending peace arousing questions has been the process of demobilizing and reintegrating soldiers into Eritrean society. It is important to recall, however, that Eritrea has previous experience with mass demobilization and reintegration.
For example, after the long war for independence (from 1961 to 1991), Eritrea engaged in a process of demobilization and reintegration, which were considered successes – until war broke out with Ethiopia in 1998 and reversed the process. The period was characterized by a focus on poverty reduction, reconstruction, and rehabilitation, and nearly 65 percent of the country’s liberation forces were demobilized and shifted into both the private and public sectors.
Years later, after the 1998-2000 conflict, which had reversed many of the significant benefits which independence and peace had brought, another large-scale process of demobilization was implemented through “The Demobilization and Reintegration Program Project”, carried out in close cooperation with the World Bank and other partners.
With a normalization of relations with Ethiopia and a period of extended peace and stability, soldiers can continue or upgrade their education, receive or undergo training that generates immediate employment opportunities, or return to former livelihoods and occupations.
Additionally, many will return to agriculture and farming, key priority areas for Eritrea, since they are crucial to ensuring food security, supporting poverty reduction, and promoting national self-reliance. With thousands of Eritrean citizens returning or shifting to agriculture, productivity, efficiency, and yields can be improved, meaning the country can reduce dependence on imports to fill gaps, and even possibly transition to becoming an exporter in certain crops.
Of course, the shift or return of thousands of former soldiers to agriculture and farming will also have to be coupled with significant efforts to improve soil and water conservation, technological inputs, and access to energy, education, and training programs.
3 – Another important consideration is how peace and stability will significantly help promote investment, socio-economic growth, poverty reduction, and general development in Eritrea (and Ethiopia).
Until the emergence of the conflict in 1998, Eritrea and Ethiopia enjoyed strong economic, cultural and security relations. Prior to the war, Ethiopia was Eritrea’s top export partner, and thousands of Ethiopians were employed throughout the country. Furthermore, Ethiopia had been using the Eritrean ports at Assab and Massawa at symbolic rates and without any hindrance, while even during the war, Eritrea offered the use of its ports to transport humanitarian aid to Ethiopia.
Simply, peace and stability between the two can reignite once-thriving cross-border trade and economic activities. Furthermore, the reopening of the Assab and Massawa ports to Ethiopia will immensely benefit both countries. It is difficult to overlook how, despite Assab being the closest port to Addis Ababa (by some considerable distance), over the years of conflict and stalemate between Eritrea and Ethiopia, Djibouti has attracted hundreds of millions in investment, built numerous ports, and developed a steady stream of income (including hundreds of millions in service fees from Ethiopia).
Moreover, peace and stability can help promote a number of high-potential sectors for Eritrea, such as manufacturing and tourism. Eritrea has immense tourism potential – consider the long, beautiful coastline and countless historical sites – which peace and security will help allow the country to take better advantage of. For Eritrea, tourists can bring money, help create jobs, and thus support growth.
4 – The developments in relation to the removal of sanctions against Eritrea are also particularly interesting. Specifically, they underscore the fact that the sanctions against Eritrea were never really or truly about Eritrea’s alleged support for terrorism.
Beyond the considerable issue of the dubious legitimacy or basis for the original adoption of sanctions against Eritrea, recall that the pretexts for the sanctions have long been non-existent, with a long series of UN Somalia Eritrea Monitoring Group (UN SEMG) reports consistently concluding that they have found “no evidence of Eritrea’s support for Al-Shabaab.”
The fact that they are now being questioned, as Eritrea and Ethiopia work toward forging peace and normalizing relations, illustrates out how they were less about terrorism than other factors. Of course, the removal of sanctions (which were imposed in 2009, and then broadened several years later), is a key to development. Not only did they unjustly hurt the people of Eritrea, their removal can help promote the country’s image (e.g. as an unstable political risk, which can deter investors) and promote investment.
5 – Finally, writing days ago, as Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Eritrea, I pointed out how the ongoing encouraging developments between the two countries would present both populations, particularly the youth, with a renewed sense of optimism and hope.
Since then (as well as in the weeks prior), I have regularly and extensively discussed the ongoing and general developments at length with Eritreans, especially youth, from across the country. Invariably, the responses to the developments toward peace with Ethiopia have been positive and forward-looking.
For example, according to Filmon Tesfalem, a young college student, youth mentor, and budding author originally from Mai Mne, a small town in southern Eritrea, located near the border with Ethiopia, “This is very exciting. Peace is the fountain of development and prosperity, and it will impact all of us positively and in every which way.”
Similarly, Estifanos Ghirmay, a successful artist, youth volunteer, and college student currently studying at the College of Arts and Social Sciences (CASS), located in Adi Keih, commented, “These initiatives are great. Working together [with Ethiopia] we have so much potential – in arts, education, economy, security, development…everything. Of course, challenges remain, but this is a great step.”
Last, Ms. Hermon Tesfamariam, a college student and impressive scholar at CASS, who is originally from Asmara, happily commented, “I am so pleased. Peace is always good…the best is yet to come.”
“Since the Tigrayan elite, an ethnic minority who have refused to make peace, has lost power, sanity has simply prevailed … Now that that’s done, the entire Horn of Africa region stands to benefit” – Bronwyn Bruton, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.
The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea on July 9 signed a declaration ending the state of war between the two countries.
The summit between Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, on July 9 marked the first time that the neighbors’ heads of state have met in nearly two decades.
Nearly 100,000 people were killed in a border war between the two Horn of Africa neighbors from 1998-2000. Ethiopia and Eritrea had been in a state of “no war, no peace” ever since.
Bronwyn Bruton, director of programs and studies and deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, discussed this important development in the Horn of Africa with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen.
Here are excerpts from our interview.
Q: What have the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea agreed to and why is it significant?
Bruton: The peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in some sense is completely shocking because it has taken so long to get to. But it is important to bear in mind that the reason it has taken so long is entirely because of a small group of people inside Ethiopia—the old liberation fighters from the Tigrayan ethnic minority—who have refused to make peace in violation of international law since 2002.
Ever since an international boundary commission ruled in 2002 that flashpoint territories belonged to Eritrea, Ethiopia has put up one excuse after another to avoid giving that territory back. This refusal to surrender the territory has been partially pragmatic and partially a matter of pride.
After fighting alongside Eritrea to liberate Ethiopia from the communist Derg party, the leaders of the revolutionary movement felt indebted and consented to Eritrea’s independence. But then the Tigrayans were blamed by the majority tribes for “losing” Eritrea and, along with it, Ethiopia’s only access to the sea. It was considered to be one of [the late prime minister of Ethiopia] Meles Zenawi’s greatest failure—a black mark hanging over his and his party’s head.
So the Tigrayans have always conspired to get Eritrea back and it has been a matter of national pride.
Q: How after years of stalemate has this declaration happened so quickly?
Bruton: Since the Tigrayan elite has lost power, sanity has simply prevailed. Once you take the issue of Tigrayan pride out of the equation, the plain logic of this situation is that both Ethiopia and Eritrea stand to gain immeasurably from peace — not only in terms of the massive economic benefits, which will accrue to both sides but also in terms of regional peace and stability.
Both Eritrea and Ethiopia have pursued proxy warfare in the absence of a regular armed conflict. Now that that’s done, the entire Horn of Africa region stands to benefit.
Q: What specifically does this mean for Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Bruton: It is not entirely clear what it means right now. Events have unfolded at breakneck speed, and it appears that many of the details have yet to be determined. What the leaders of both Eritrea and Ethiopia have jointly stated is that a full normalization of relations will occur, and in the short term that will involve opening the border, giving Ethiopia access to the ports, reopening the embassies that have been shuttered since 1998, and resuming flights between the capitals. People will apparently be able to cross the border at will—and no mention has been made of any tariffs on goods. (That was one of the sources of conflict before the war.)
Q: What does this development mean for the United States?
Bruton: For the United States it presents some challenges. In the first place, it is a magnificent opportunity because it will allow for increased stability. On the other hand, the United States has set up a kind of alternate reality in the Horn of Africa for many years, in which Eritrea was a “spoiler,” and was sanctioned, while the Tigrayan minority regime in Ethiopia was held up as a model partner and the shining white knights of US counterterrorism efforts. Now the Tigrayans have been thrown out of power, and overnight, democracy and peace seems to be spreading magically across the Horn of Africa—showing what might have been achieved so much earlier, if only the United States had not fought so hard to keep the old authoritarian regime in power. Neither the Eritrean government nor the Ethiopian people are likely to forget the US role in their long years of suffering, so Washington has some real repair work to do. In this one respect, it may actually be helpful that the Trump administration has put so much distance between itself and the Obama administration’s approach. They can try to disown the old policies and get a fresh start. But it may or may not work. By all appearances, Abiy intends to be a truly democratic, populist leader, and as such he may or may not be interested in courting US favor by pursuing Washington counterterror objectives across the region, at the risk of Ethiopian soldiers’ lives. That remains to be seen.
Washington will also have to contend with a newly invigorated Eritrea, which is poised to take a leadership role on the regional stage. There’s a strong upside to that: Eritrea could be extremely helpful in resolving the conflict in South Sudan, for example, and could help the United States make progress in Somalia. But Eritrea is likely to seek progress by pointing out how badly US policy has performed in those countries, and by suggesting entirely new approaches that the United States may or may not find palatable. Eritrea, for example, has always talked about the importance of negotiating with all the actors in the Somali conflict, not just the pro-government actors—including parts of the terrorist group al Shabaab. That is the right approach to take, in my view, but something that the United States has fiercely resisted, and may continue to resist now, even in the face of an overwhelming lack of progress in resolving the conflict in Somalia.
The bottom line is that a partnership between Isaias in Eritrea and a true democratic leader in Ethiopia will allow for the creation of a more authentic regional voice to counter American assumptions about the Horn. Washington is likely to find itself out of the driver’s seat at a time when it’s already worried by the growing Arab influence in the Horn. This is a reality that’s evident in the peace process itself: it’s something that Ethiopia and Eritrea sorted out completely by themselves, with precious little reference to the United States. To the extent that any outside actor is receiving credit for massaging the peace process along, it’s Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that people are pointing to. That is unfortunately the “new normal” that Washington is going to have to contend with—it used to be the only game in town, and now it’s not even the biggest game in town. In terms of influence, it’s lining up behind China and the Gulf States.
Q: How should the United States respond to this development?
Bruton: The United States will certainly celebrate the end of the border conflict, but I fear that it is poorly positioned to capitalize on the development because the Trump administration is so distracted by other events.
The United States is going to be challenged because a lot of the newly empowered actors in the Horn of Africa—including the Ethiopian opposition that is now in power and the Eritreans—have long regarded it as a malign influence. The United States has put all of its military, political, and economic weight behind the Tigrayan elite and this Tigrayan elite has brutalized the Horn of Africa. They have robbed the Ethiopian people, they have kept Eritrea in a state of emergency for twenty years, they have imprisoned journalists and democrats as terrorists, they have invaded Somalia. They have done a whole host of awful things that the United States has either actively supported and condoned.
Now that the balance of power has shifted, the United States has to come to terms with what it has done. It is going to have to envision a new way forward that is much more constructive and much more collaborative than the strategy that it has used in the past. It now doesn’t have an authoritarian regime doing business with it [in Ethiopia].
Ashish Kumar Sen is deputy director of communications, editorial, at the Atlantic Council.
Ethiopia’s absolute dependence on tiny Djibouti’s port service for over 18 years is now over. Time has come to save half of the $3 billion Ethiopia pays every year for an inferior port service.
Landlocked Ethiopia wants to make the re-opening of two roads connecting it to two of Eritrea’s Red Sea ports a priority in the two nations’ reconciliation process, a government spokesman said on Wednesday.
In a move that ended a 20-year military stand-off, the Horn of African neighbours agreed on Monday to open embassies, develop ports and resume flights.
The historic reconciliation could transform politics and security in the volatile Horn region, which lies along one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Ethiopian government spokesman Ahmed Shide said on Wednesday that the reopening of two critical roads leading to the ports of Assab in Eritrea’s south and Massawa in the north would benefit the whole region.
“The unfolding developments will not only benefit our peoples, but the entire Horn of Africa region will be a part of these developments,” Shide was quoted as saying in an interview published on the Eritrean information ministry’s website.
Also on Wednesday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s chief of staff wrote on Twitter that Ethiopian and Eritrean passport holders would be able to travel to the other country and obtain visas on arrival.
The changes are sweeping away years of hostility and raising hopes in both countries for a lucrative peace dividend.
Access to the ports of Assab and Massawa could greatly help Ethiopia’s push to boost their exports and increase hard currency earnings, analysts say.
The country of 100 million is heavily dependent on ports in tiny neighbour Djibouti, but since Abiy took office, has also negotiated access to a port in Sudan.
Tiny Djibouti is the particular casualty of the prevailing peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
A threat to peace that Washington shouldn’t afford to ignore …
Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki are are united by the presence of a still-potent common enemy: hardliners in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, made headlines across the world with his surprise move last month to resolve his country’s two-decade-long fight with Eritrea.
The nation of Eritrea broke free from Ethiopia through a referendum in 1993, and the two nations then fought a bloody war that is thought to have left as many as 100,000 people dead from 1998 to 2000.
The dusty village of Badme — which has nothing but symbolic value to either side — was awarded to Eritrea in 2002 by an international boundary commission created under a peace agreement between the two sides. But Ethiopia reneged on the deal and has doggedly maintained a nearly 20-year military stalemate to avoid surrendering the town.
Abiy’s announcement on June 5 that he was willing to finally give up Badme — without any of the economic preconditions that the previous Ethiopian government had always insisted on — effectively ended the conflict.
The man who should be his bitter rival, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, is also in an uncharacteristically accommodating state of mind. In sending a peace delegation to Addis Ababa, he put an end to his country’s 18-year refusal to conduct any dialogue with Ethiopia while its troops remained on Eritrean soil.
Previously unthinkable concessions are being tossed around on both sides. Airplanes will even start flying between Addis Ababa and Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, again.
On July 8, Abiy spent the day in Asmara, where he was warmly embraced by Isaias. The next morning, the two men announced that diplomatic and economic relations would resume. Few details were provided, but Isaias did take the time to allude briefly to the difficulties that Abiy faces at home and the need for a coordinated response:
“We can imagine that the decision the prime minister of Ethiopia took was not a simple one. But we can assure you we will face the future together. We will work as one.”
Since the border has already been virtually demarcated, peace should, in principle, require no more than the withdrawal of Ethiopia’s troops. Unfortunately, that’s the part that will be the most difficult — for reasons that have nothing to do with Abiy or with Eritrea.
Although it might seem shocking to outside observers, there is a very clear reason why both leaders are suddenly so eager to cooperate. They are united by the presence of a still-potent mutual enemy: the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Abiy was swept into the prime minister’s office in April on a tidal wave of revolt. Roads had been blocked and stores shuttered as hundreds of thousands protested against the country’s ruling cabal, a small group of former liberation fighters that had been in power since 1991.
The cabal had used its long rule to advance Ethiopia’s economy and had made the nation into a regional powerhouse — but it had also, through corruption, amassed the bulk of Ethiopia’s new wealth and had kept the majority of military power concentrated in the hands of a tiny ethnic minority, the Tigrayans, whose revolutionary apparatus, the TPLF, had freed Ethiopia from the communist Derg committee in 1991.
Though it governed behind the fig leaf of a larger ruling coalition [EPRDF], the TPLF and the tiny ethnic minority it represents have wielded unlimited power in Ethiopia for the past two decades. The party has used its power to obliterate civil society, the press, religious freedoms, and all forms of political opposition.
By early this year, the TPLF’s stranglehold on power had brought Ethiopia to the verge of collapse, as larger ethnic groups, led by the Oromo and Amhara, blocked roads into Addis Ababa in protest.
To avert a showdown — which would have taken the form of a catastrophic food and fuel shortage in the capital — the ruling coalition’s government was forced to oust its prime minister, release thousands of political prisoners, and consent to the appointment of Abiy, an Oromo leader, as the new head of state.
Abiy has proved more of a firebrand than expected and has been moving quickly to generate a political following and dismantle the TPLF’s grip on power.
Isaias also revealed his worries about the TPLF when he announced his intention to send a peace delegation to Addis Ababa in a June 20 speech: While he had one or two nice words for the changes occurring in Ethiopia, he spoke mainly of “the TPLF’s toxic and malignant legacy,” and his belief that the TPLF “vultures,” stunned by the loss of their power, would now work to “impede positive change” — both in the bilateral relationship and inside Ethiopia.
Isaias and the TPLF fought as close allies during the liberation struggle against the communist Derg [..]. But the violent war, followed by Ethiopia’s long occupation of the Eritrean border, has destroyed all solidarity between the sides. Because of the TPLF’s intransigence, Eritrea has effectively been in a state of emergency since 1998. That state of affairs has helped fuel a migration crisis, as thousands of youth have fled the country for Europe.
The purpose of Isaias’s remarks was to align Eritrea as an ally of the Ethiopian protesters, who had in his view quite rightly pressured the TPLF regime to place Abiy in power.
His speech was widely praised — including by the U.S. State Department, which applauded his “courageous leadership” in a breathtaking about-face, seemingly forgetting that it had long considered Isaias a pariah.
Eritrea clearly welcomes the prospect of a new ally in the very old war against the TPLF, which has yet to be won.
What will peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia mean for Djibouti and its fragile port monopoly?ly
Djibouti President perceives normalization with Eritrea as a zero-sum game. However, Ethiopia’s unexpected warming of relations with Eritrea challenges his country’s strategic advantage. What is he going to do about it?
Ethiopians and Eritreans alike are celebrating the breakneck speed of a rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara, two longtime enemies. Closer ties between the two, while not necessarily a done deal, could usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for the Horn of Africa, resuming a thriving trade relationship and granting landlocked Ethiopia access to a new port.
Unfortunately, nearby Djibouti—which has successfully exploited its prime territory on the Red Sea to offer both port access and military bases to foreign countries—stands to lose.
At the least, this tectonic shift will reduce the revenues available to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999, and undermine his ironclad grip on the country. At worst, Djibouti could prove a spoiler, which would threaten prospects for regional peace as well as longstanding US strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.
For decades, Djibouti was the undisputed winner of Ethiopian-Eritrean hostility and the latter’s international isolation. The New Jersey-sized country of just under one million people has unique geostrategic advantages—its coastline spans the meeting of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a chokepoint through which significant amounts of the world’s energy supply and commerce pass every year.
While ports exist in Sudan, Somaliland, and Eritrea, Djibouti’s developed facilities, political stability, and investment-friendly atmosphere have proven more attractive than anywhere else in the region. As a result, Djibouti has enjoyed a near-monopoly on moving goods to and from landlocked Ethiopia.
The United States also has longstanding security interests in Djibouti, including the only permanent US military base on the continent—a vital component of US counterterrorism operations in East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Some 4,000 US military personnel are stationed at the American base, which extends to the nearby airport used to launch both armed and reconnaissance drones that operate in Somalia and Yemen.
Underscoring the country’s strategic importance to the Pentagon, US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis visited Djibouti in April 2017, just months ahead of the opening of China’s first overseas military base there. Additionally, France, Japan, Italy, and Saudi Arabia have bases of various sizes and capabilities in Djibouti.
Ethiopia and Djibouti have traditionally maintained a close political and economic relationship out of mutual necessity. When the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war broke out in 1998, Ethiopia lost access to Eritrea’s port, an existential crisis for a landlocked country. Since then, Ethiopia has overwhelmingly relied on Djiboutian ports to process its imports and exports: some 95 percent of Ethiopian imports transit through Djibouti. Djibouti, too, relies on its larger neighbor, from which it imports freshwater and electricity.
A logistical nightmare for potash miners. Djibouti’s Tadjoura port was built partly to take advantage of exports from the underdeveloped potash deposits in Ethiopia. That port is now the least desirable option for potash exports.
Profits from Ethiopia’s use of Djiboutian ports—estimates top $1 billion annually—are a key source of Guelleh’s government revenue. But Ethiopia finds this arrangement deeply flawed and is interested in more diverse, and better, deals for port access. The United States, as well, is deeply dissatisfied with Guelleh’s partnership. Specifically, his penchant for extracting costly rents from as many foreign militaries as possible, including allowing a Chinese military base just kilometers from the US one, has left the United States discontented.
Eritrea and Djibouti have a more restive history, and unresolved tensions could flare up again. Djibouti’s western border with Eritrea has been militarized since the end of border clashes in 2008. Qatar attempted to mediate the dispute, and it even managed to facilitate a 2016 prisoner swap before withdrawing its peacekeepers from the Eritrean-Djiboutian border in protest of both countries’ decision to side with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Gulf crisis.
Djibouti’s shipping and land lease profits directly supplement Guelleh’s tight political control over the country. The Chinese will reportedly pay $20 million a year until 2025 for their base, though that figure does not include more than $1 billion in Chinese loans. The Americans pay some $70 million annually for at least another six years, and the French pay another $30-plus millionyearly for their military facility.
These profits contribute to what appears to be a booming economy: Djibouti’s annual GDP growth is expected to remain around 7 percent into the near future. But despite Djibouti’s ostensible riches, most of the country remains desperately poor, underdeveloped, and subject to Guelleh’s authoritarianism. Nearly a quarter of the population lives in extreme poverty, and Djibouti ranks abysmally on political rights and civil liberties.
Ethiopia-Eritrea peace talks are bad news for Guelleh, who has staked his country’s growth on its role as the port of choice for economic giants like Ethiopia. Assuming normalization efforts continue, Ethiopia could soon have the option to use Eritrea’s ports, which are closer and more convenient than Djibouti.
While it is unlikely that Ethiopia will cease using Djiboutian ports altogether, it will have options—and thus will be less inclined to settle for usurious port usage rates. Eritrea may even prove a welcoming partner to foreign militaries, as the country previously allowed Emirati use of its port at Assab to prosecute the war in Yemen. One constraint on Ethiopia’s turn away from Djibouti, however, is its imperative to pay back nearly $3 billion in Chinese loans for the newly opened Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway.
Lastly, if foreign militaries follow Ethiopia’s lead and diversify their security partners, Guelleh will rapidly lose a key source of income, making the four-term president vulnerable to longstanding grievances about his government’s corruption and repression. Once his resources dry up, the little political support he has been able to cajole or co-opt will likely follow.
In recent years, the UAE’s increasing interest in the Horn of Africa adds a new complication to Djibouti’s predicament. The UAE has acquired rights to a naval base in Eritrea, a military base and commercial port in Somaliland, and a multi-purpose port in Puntland. But relations between Djibouti and the UAE have been fraught since February 2018 when the Djiboutian government cancelled the contract of Emirati firm Dubai Ports World (DP World) to operate Djibouti’s main container shipping terminal. Early reports suggest that the UAE might have even played a role in the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The UAE’s growing partnership with Ethiopia—which recently acquired a 19 percent stake in the Berbera port alongside DP World and Somaliland—is also noteworthy evidence of regional diversification.
While it is unfortunate that Guelleh perceives normalization with Eritrea as a zero-sum game, he has some reason to be nervous that Addis Ababa and Asmara are warming up to one another. The faster they normalize relations, the faster Djibouti’s strategic advantages disappear—and with them, Guelleh’s cash flow. Resolving a decades-long conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would strengthen overall regional stability and open new doors for economic trade and prosperity. But there are very real losers in that scenario, and the opportunity to spoil the well-deserved peace should be carefully scrutinized.
Kelsey Lilley is associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.
Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (Rep.) hails the peace agreement signed in Asmara between Eritrea and Ethiopia as a historic milestone that touched the hearts of millions of people around the world.
Republican Dana Rohrabacher, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats, on Wednesday issued the following statement concerning the new accord between the African nations of Eritrea and Ethiopia:
The peace agreement signed in Asmara, Eritrea, this past weekend by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea ending the conflict between their two nations is a historic milestone.
It will benefit both nations, the region, and freedom-loving people everywhere.
It is a bold step taken by two courageous leaders.
The images of Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias embracing and of Ethiopians and Eritreans waving each other’s flags inspired and touched the hearts of millions of people around the world.
Like Anwar Sadat, who went to Jerusalem in 1977 seeking peace, Prime Minister Abiy took a great risk in reaching out to Eritrea and working out terms for peace.
Rightly, President Isaias and the Eritrean people warmly received Prime Minister Abiy and accepted the offer to end decades of conflict.
The United States and its allies should applaud this peace pact and help both nations forge a better future for their peoples.
Along with President Trump for his efforts in Korea, Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias should be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize.
A remarkable thing happened this week in the troubled Horn of Africa. The President of Eritrea, Isaias Afewerki, and the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, signed a Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship to end the 20-year conflict between their two states and secure a future without war and tension to the war-exhausted people of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Some have already started talking about a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but doesn’t it make sense to extend the honor to both men? After all, you can’t make peace by yourself. It takes two to tango.
President Isaias is Prime Minister Abiy’s partner in peace. Prime Minister Abiy’s outstretched hand and unequivocal offer of peace, friendship, and cooperation by dramatically breaking from his government’s past verbal acrobatics and obstacles to peace was accepted by Eritrea’s President Isaias, the other main protagonist.
Both men fully deserve the honor for the risk they have taken for peace. The end of the 20-year conflict’s announcement and the opening of trade and visitations between the two countries was greeted with elation in both Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Eritreans and Ethiopians were glued to their television sets this past weekend to watch coverage of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Asmara, a UNESCO World Heritage City, and the warm embrace he received everywhere he went in Asmara and its outskirts.
With his bold visit to Asmara, Prime Minister Abiy cut the Gordian knot at a single stroke.
Prime Minister Abiy’s critics and detractors, namely TPLF extremists in Tigray, condemned his policy of reconciliation and outreach to Eritrea’s President Isaias but the population at large in both countries has received news of the end of the 20-year conflict with elation.
Both President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy have seen the dehumanizing and devastating effects of war up close and arrive at the peace table by way of military backgrounds. President Isaias was a leader during the 30-year war of independence while Prime Minister Abiy was a young army officer during the devastating 1998-2000 Ethiopia – Eritrea border war that saw some 20,000 Eritreans and 100,000 Ethiopians killed.
Essential negotiations will continue on port usage, currency exchanges, visa requirements, and other vital topics that aim to take advantage of the peace dividend. The negotiations may prove difficult at some points. However, such doubts have been overshadowed by the outpouring of excitement from the citizens of both countries as well as the congratulatory messages and praises both leaders are receiving for their courage in choosing peace rather than condemn future generations of Ethiopians and Eritreans to war, tension and misery.
Nobel candidates can be nominated by national assemblies, some university professors, members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee and members of international peace and judicial bodies.
President Isaias Afewerki is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s partner in peace. If chosen for the prize, both men will be the first East Africans to win the prize.
The political impact of a Nobel Peace Prize for the Horn of Africa and the wider East Africa cannot be overstated. The Ethio-Eritrea conflict has been described by many political observers as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts. The journey of peace and reconciliation the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea have embarked on will be an important example for the rest of the warring countries in the region such as South Sudan and Somalia.
If nominated, I have no doubt that both President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy will be found worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of their efforts to bring peace to their region and relegate the legacy of war between their countries to the dustbin of history. The citation that accompanies their joint prize might read as follows:
“The Norwegian Nobel Committee has awarded the Peace Prize for 2018 to Isaias Afewerki, President of Eritrea, and Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, for their contribution to the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship, and laying a foundation for future peace and reconciliation between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which was signed in Asmara on July 9, 2018.
The people of Eritrea and Ethiopia yearn for peace. If Prime Minister Abiy’s and President Isaias’s Declaration of Peace and Friendship succeeds, a new era will be opened in the Horn of Africa: an era of flourishing and growth, of development and progress.
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki has arrived in Addis Ababa for a three-day state visit, as part of an unprecedented softening of tensions between his country and Ethiopia.
Saturday’s visit by Afwerki, his first in 20 years, comes a week after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a landmark visit to Eritrea’s capital, Asmara.
An agreement signed in Asmara by the two Horn of Africa nations on Monday formally ended a conflict that has been ongoing for more than two decades.
The newly-appointed reformist Abiy first instigated the peace overtures and restoration of relations in April.
Al Jazeera’s Catherine Soi, reporting from Nairobi in neighbouring Kenya, stressed the important value of the visit by Afwerki, who has been president of Eritrea since its independence in 1993.
“Things have progressed very quickly,” Soi reported.
“Many observers have been caught by surprise,” she said.
“It all started when Prime Minister Abiy reached out to the Eritrean president back in April and agreed to abide by the UN ruling on the disputed territories that have been the cause of this 20-year conflict.
“This visit by President Afwerki really cements this thawing of relations. We expect a lot of Ethiopians to receive the president. It’s very good news all around.”
As part of the thawing of relations, Ethiopian Airlines is due to resume commercial flights to Asmara on Wednesday.
According to Soi, it is still too early to tell how the new relationship will affect lasting peace in the region, but she said that it is “certainly hugely significant for the stability of the region”.
“These are two countries that have been highly militarised, partly because of this mistrust they have had for each other. Both have accused each other of using militias to destabilize each other. We expect this to de-escalate,” she said.
Both Eritrea and Ethiopia are expected to benefit from renewed trade ties between the two nations. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, will start using the ports of Eritrea, which will increase turnover.
“This 20-year conflict has torn apart families and communities who shared the same language and who shared the same cultures,” Soi said.
“Now those communities are going to come together freely so it’s good news for the region, but even more importantly for millions of Eritreans and Ethiopians who have been watching this and who have been saying that this what we want and it should have happened a long time ago.”
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he would take action against those who may seek to block a peace declaration with Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, as Ethiopia’s army awaits instructions on troop withdrawals from border areas.
Isaias said both nations would work together to safeguard the newfound peace that’s ended nearly two decades of frosty relations between the neighboring nations, state-run Ethiopian News Agency reported Sunday, citing speeches the night before.
“For the sake of our culture and our historic benefit, we forsake the hatred and revenge of the past and we have decided to go forward for our mutual development and for mutual benefit,” Isaias said in a speech Sunday.
“We will not allow anyone who tries to break our relationship, our development and our growth, and anyone who tries to create conflict between us.”
The Eritrean leader flew into the airport in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, for a three-day visit on Saturday morning to a brass band and a red carpet welcome.
He then joined a motorcade escorted by traditional horsemen and cruised to the national palace as thousands cheered waving Ethiopian and Eritrean flags.
His visit mirrors Abiy’s groundbreaking trip to Eritrea last weekend.
The two countries — at odds since a 1998-2000 border war that claimed as many as 100,000 lives — sealed a swathe of agreements, restoring diplomatic relations, flights and telecommunications, as well as allowing Ethiopia’s use of Red Sea ports.
The Ethiopian army pledged to move its troops stationed at areas bordering Eritrea, the Deputy Chief of Staff [Lt. Gen.] Berhanu Jula said. Berhanu attended June 26 peace talks with an Eritrean delegation that flew into Addis Ababa for the first round of peace talks.
“Moving military forces stationed in border areas in the Ethiopian regions of Afar and Tigray is not the decision of the military, but the government,” said Berhanu, who heads military operations.
“If the government communicated with the Eritrean government and decided to remove the army from the border area, the army will remove them,” according to the state-owned newspaper Addis Zemen.
The opening of the embassy was the culmination of President Isaias Afwerki’s three-day visit to Ethiopia, his first to the country in 22 years.
BY TESFANEWS *
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed re-opened the Eritrean embassy in the capital Addis Ababa, a week after signing a “joint declaration of peace and friendship“ and agreeing to resume flights, open embassies and develop ports together.
The two leaders jointly raised the Eritrean flag as a military band played the Eritrean national anthem.
In a tweet, Eritrea’s information minister, Yemane G/Meskel described the reopening of the embassy as “yet another milestone in the robust and special ties of peace and friendship both countries are cultivating with earnestness in these momentous times.”
Abiy’s chief of staff, Fitsum Arega, said in a tweet that full normalization of relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia “will create the ideal conditions to address remaining strategic issues in the shared interest of the two nations.”
President Isaias was given a dignitary’s welcome on his arrival in Ethiopia on Saturday.
“I feel boundless joy as I convey to you the message of peace, love and good wishes of the people of Eritrea. And, I congratulate you warmly for the successful and historic changes that you have brought about,” President Isaias said at a concert celebrating the peace process at the Millenial Hall in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa.
“We have triumphed over the toxic schemes of the past years aimed at sowing the seeds of hate, resentment, and destruction. These malignant acts are indeed anathema to our cultures as well as to our historical and cohesive interests. We are now jointly embarking – with determination – on the path of development, prosperity, and stability in all fields and fronts.” he added.
President Isaias concludes his three-day Ethiopia visit and returned home yesterday (16).
“We have triumphed over the toxic schemes of the past years aimed at sowing the seeds of hate, resentment, and destruction. These malignant acts are indeed anathema to our cultures as well as to our historical and cohesive interests. We are now jointly embarking – with determination – on the path of development, prosperity, and stability in all fields and fronts.” – President Isaias Afwerki
BY DR. FIKREJESUS AMHAZION
Victor Hugo, a poet, novelist, and dramatist who was among the most important of the French Romantic writers, put it well when he noted, “Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.”
In the Horn of Africa, which for decades has been plagued by conflicts and tension, the idea of peace appears to be quickly taking over.
After what has been a whirlwind several weeks, filled with a series of rapid and momentous developments, the President of Eritrea, H.E. Isaias Afwerki, visited Ethiopia this past weekend for three days of meetings.
The visit comes just a week after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, who took office in April, travelled to Eritrea and signed a historic agreement with President Isaias on resuming ties, including opening embassies, developing ports, restoring telecommunications links, and restarting direct flights, a move that ended a near 20-year military standoff after a destructive two-year border war.
During his visit to Ethiopia, President Isaias, who was accompanied by a high-level delegation comprising ministers, advisers, and other high-level officials, held extensive discussions with PM Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopian President Dr. Mulatu Toshome, and other Ethiopian officials.
He also visited various sites, including the Hawasa Industrial Park, attended a lunch held in his honor at the National Palace, and delivered a speech at Ethiopia’s Millennium Hall in which he conveyed “the message of peace, love, and good wishes of the people of Eritrea,” congratulated the Ethiopian people for their “successful and historic changes,” and expressed his “wholehearted support to Dr. Abiy.”
Although much has been written about what the current developments may ultimately mean for Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the broader region, here I would like to further discuss an important point that I only briefly touched upon within a previous article.
Specifically, it has been both highly notable and quite interesting that throughout much of the ongoing peace developments between Eritrea and Ethiopia – and in contrast to the narrative being peddled by some – the initiatives have been largely led and carried out by Eritreans and Ethiopians themselves.
Underscoring this point, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, during his speech on Sunday at Ethiopia’s Millennium Hall in front of a large, excited crowd of thousands of people, noted how the recent agreement and peace initiatives between Eritrea and Ethiopia were made “without the involvement of a third party.”
Historically, external or foreign solutions were often not viable in Africa since they were either “imported” or “dictated” to Africans. A major irony of general African history is that many of the theories, policies, and solutions employed across the continent have frequently come from outside the continent. Quite simply, no other region of the world has been so dominated by external ideas and models. It is also important to recall that while the solutions have often been completely externally-derived, western policy has also frequently assumed that African problems were solely the responsibility of Africans, even though, historically, many states were negatively impacted by a variety of harmful external influences or effectively run by western governments, multilateral organizations, multinational companies, and international NGOs.
Additionally, those voices, albeit only a few, seeking to diminish or deny the courageous, forward-looking role and initiative undertaken by Eritreans and Ethiopians within the unfolding historic developments reflect the enduring general notion that the “Third World” has “needs” and “problems” but few choices and no freedom or capability to act. They illustrate a troublingly condescending, paternalistic attitude and perpetuate hegemonic ideas of foreign superiority.
By rejecting the agency and initiative of the local actors, these voices starkly reveal a residual attitude from 19th century racism and colonial times when, as discussed by Edward Said, “the peoples of the empire were a subject race, dominated by the more powerful, the more developed, the more civilized, the higher, who know them and what is good for them, better than they could possibly know themselves.”
It is almost as if they cannot bear to concede that Africans, for whom they have been accustomed to speaking for and directing, are choosing to grab the reins and take complete ownership of their own destinies. Bronwyn Bruton, Director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, may have put it best in commenting, “Honestly – it’s embarrassing.”
Of course, this is not to argue that the support and commitment of the international community and various other partners are not needed. The reality is, in fact, quite the opposite. Their support is valuable and absolutely vital, and they have historically often played a critical role in promoting positive changes.
Moreover, the current developments have received important support from a variety of different actors. However, the broader point is that tangible, sustainable solutions have to involve and be led by local actors.
Simply, if you formulate your own solutions to your problems, you have every reason and incentive to see them work. Furthermore, solutions and approaches that are grounded in local realities and contexts often prove to be far more beneficial than solutions that have been imported from other parts of the world.
Ultimately, in order for sustainable peace to stand any chance, those affected by – and involved in – conflict must own and identify with the responses and solutions to it. To borrow from Ebrahim Ismail Ebrahim, former Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa, it is only when African leaders can stand together that, “we, as Africans, indeed become the midwives of our own destiny.”
Finally, as developments toward peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to quickly unfold, it is quite puzzling that regional “experts”, who have long promoted highly flawed, error-ridden, biased, unobjective, and otherwise problematic narratives and analyses (which are so clearly being revealed as abjectly wanting by current developments), now turn to condescendingly pontificating or directing what the next steps for Eritrea and Ethiopia ought to be.
While they are, of course, entitled to their opinion, however flawed or mistaken, this approach appears rather arrogant and presumptuous. Instead, it would be much more appropriate – and they would likely be much better served – if they genuinely considered the perspectives, accounts, views, and aspirations of local actors.
Roses and champagne have been given to passengers on the first commercial flight between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 20 years.
BY TESFANEWS *
The first flight in 20 years from Ethiopia to Eritrea landed safely in Asmara on Wednesday, to be greeted by traditional dancers waving flags and flowers, cementing a stunning reconciliation between the Horn of Africa foes.
Relatives and friends are expected to be reunited for the first time since a 1998-2000 border war between the two nations shut air and road travel.
“I am in cloud nine …. I’m going back to the place where I grew up. I’m really happy,” flight captain Yosef Hailu told the BBC.
It’s the first flight in what will be a daily service by Africa’s biggest airline.
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church was among the passengers on this historic flight.
Mr. Desalegn told the BBC reporter that he was emotional about making the trip.
“It’s a golden moment for the two countries and the two people,” he said.
Ethiopian Airlines Chief Executive Tewolde GebreMariam took to the onboard intercom as the flight crossed into Eritrean airspace.
“This is the first time that this is happening in twenty years,” he said, to applause from the 315 passengers on board.
Demand was so huge that a second flight left within 15 minutes, AFP news agency reported.
“We’re very excited not only for the business part of it but the emotional attachment of the two people,” GebreMariam said by phone from Addis Ababa.
“The route will allow Ethiopian airlines to use previously closed airspace to fly to other destinations, with savings on fuel costs incurred through detours over Sudan and elsewhere.”
Upon arrival at Asmara International Airport, dignitaries of this historic flights were received by Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh.
This historic air link was made possible after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki made a declaration of peace earlier this month in Asmara and agreed on restoring diplomatic, telecommunications and transport links.
President Isaias reciprocated with a visitto Ethiopia last weekend.
The uniquely African Empire of Ethiopia has seen itself launched into a peaceful revolution that promises to transform one of the planets poorest countries into a modern peoples democracy.
Being that I have spent my entire life living by the principle of “political power grows from the barrel of a gun”, or as Marx said, “Force is the midwife of change”, to see a peaceful revolution next door in Ethiopia is almost too much to grasp hold of.
I first thought this was a “soft coup” by the Americans, but this is much more than that. American acquiescence was necessary, but the new government led by Dr. Abiy Ahmed has started what can only be called a revolution.
Prime Minister Abiy, elected such by a parliament 100% appointed by the former regime is young, charismatic and has put forward a program of change that is remarkably similar to what Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki has been saying for the past 25 years and more.
Calling on all Ethiopians, the good Doctor, past soldier, intelligence officer and for the past eight years a politician, is urging his countrymen and women to learn from socialist Eritrea next door.
He has suggested the Ethiopian diaspora emulate the Eritreans and start donating $1 a day to their homeland. National service and national education training centers such as Eritrea’s Sawa are being discussed. And of course, if Ethiopia is really to begin to break with its history of debt bondage and beggary, the Ethiopian diaspora, like the Eritreans, will have to start paying an income tax on their foreign earnings of 2 percent.
Eritrea, four million population, gathers $300 million a year or more from its diaspora so Ethiopia should be able to make a serious dent in its budget deficit by introducing the 2% income tax.
PM Abiy’s task is a giant one, for Ethiopia is a big country with many different ethnic groups and like Eritrea next door roughly half Muslim and half Christian. A divide and rule policy of instigating ethnic-based conflict by the previous regime has left the country burnt and bleeding, with almost one million people internally displaced.
On top of this, almost perennial drought and famines have wracked the land brought on by western industrialization induced climate change.
Ethiopia should be a thriving country with a well-off citizenry for it has rich lands, lots of water, minerals and even energy. The problem has been its leaders this past century starting with Haile Sellasie, “Emperor”. His claim to power was based on his grandfather’s use of Italian supplied firearms to conquer and loot their neighbors, mostly the Oromo, of whom the new PM derives from.
Once in power having completely subjugated the Oromo, amongst others, Haile Sellasie turned his eyes toward the coast and the dream of having his own port on the Red Sea. This meant annexing the Italian colony of Eritrea with its much more advanced economy and of course, the ports of Assab in the south and Massawa in the north.
The violent subjugation of Eritrea is central to the modern history of Ethiopia and today Ethiopians see the recent development of peaceful relations as God’s blessing.
The Eritreans fought a 30-year independence war which helped trigger the overthrow of HaileSellasie and eventually would see the Eritrean rebel army defeat HaileSellasie’s replacement Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s army and drive him into exile in Zimbabwe.
The Eritreans left their erstwhile allies the Tigrayan rebel army in control of Ethiopia and returned to their main task of establishing their newly independent country.
When two years later the Eritreans formerly declared their independence and joined the UN, the Tigrayan dominated government did its best to sabotage international recognition for with independence came the loss of control of its main port of Assab. Never mind Eritrea gave Ethiopia rent-free use of Assab, the prestige lost in losing Eritrea to independence drove the new Ethiopian government controlled by the ethnic minority Tigrayan regime to reignite Ethiopian national chauvinism and eventually, just seven years after Eritrean independence, a new war of conquest was launched in 1998.
After three years of particularly bloody warfare, probably the last major land war in history, and 123,000 Ethiopian dead alongside 19,000 Eritrean martyrs (these are the official government figures) with 1.4 million Eritreans internally displaced by the Ethiopian invasion (40% of Eritrea’s population) has left both countries peoples indelibly scarred.
Following the defeat of the Ethiopian invasion, the Tigrayan regime began what came to be known as No-War No-Peace on Eritrea’s border, every few years sending division strength military incursions into Eritrea forcing Eritrea to maintain a large army of national service military on active duty in its trenches along the border.
The main player in all of this, and something almost entirely excluded from a mention by the MSM, has been Pax Americana, with the Clintonites and their kissing cousin Barack Obama dominating the list of criminals who instigated and supported these past 25 years of conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Today’s revolution in Ethiopia has ended all this and with a young, dynamic leader, only 42 years old and sounding like a younger version of Eritrea’s Issias Aferworki, speaking the language of peace and love, communal and national harmony and cooperation, is still having to deal with violent outbreaks i.e. attacks on former regime leaders businesses and properties, communal violence in the south, and continued resistance by former regime supporters still occupying administrative post in Oromia and Afar.
Dr. Abiy is promising a future and outlining inspiring plans on how to achieve it beginning with peace with his neighbors and the end to communal strife in Ethiopia. He speaks directly to the hearts and minds of all Ethiopians in a way almost religious, addressing the importance of loving oneself and one’s neighbors instead of relying on the gun to define society. Now I am not a romantic or religious but his words strike a chord with all people of good heart and gives one hope that here in one of the most strife-torn, famine-wracked places on the planet there is hope.
Of course, it takes unity and hard work, something Dr. Abiy uses Eritrea and Eritreans as role models for the Ethiopian people, going so far as to only half-jokingly declare himself Eritrea’s unofficial foreign minister, the better to fight the lies being spread about our country.
Eritrean President Issias Aferworki has visited Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa and sealed the deal so to speak, demonstrating to the Ethiopian people his and our entire country’s sincere desire for peace and friendship between both of us, all too similar and all too different.
As Dr. Abiy continues his path of independence and close relations with Eritrea expect to see a growing wave of criticism, maybe even demonization, once his “honeymoon” period with the western media goes stale and the anti-socialist zealots in the west raise a hue and cry alleging “lack of democratic process” and alleged “human rights abuses”.
Towards the end of his speech at the unity music concert in Addis Ababa on Sunday, July 15, Dr. Abiy, in addressing the problems facing the country told his listeners, almost entirely under 30, not to worry, “Isaias is leading us” as in Eritrean President Isaias Aferwerki.
It hasn’t taken long for the cat to get out of the bag so to speak and the influence of “Wedi Afom” as Dr. Abiy calls Isaias, is now a matter of public record. Maybe we should be calling Ethiopia’s peaceful revolution a “Soft Coup” by Eritrea.
Thomas C. Mountain is an independent journalist in Eritrea, living and reporting from here since 2006. See thomascmountain on Facebook or best contact him at thomascmountain at g mail dot com
Djibouti is asking Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to help peacefully resolve a border dispute with Eritrea following the recent end to that nation’s 20-year border dispute with Ethiopia.
Djibouti’s U.N. ambassador, Mohamed Siad Doualeh, asked Guterres in a letter circulated Wednesday to work with the Security Council to bring his tiny port nation and Eritrea together “with the aim of facilitating an agreement between them upon a mutually acceptable means of peaceful dispute settlement.”
He said Djibouti’s preference would be to refer the dispute “to judicial settlement or arbitration” that would be legally binding.
Djibouti’s appeal to the U.N. chief follows the dramatic diplomatic thaw to one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts that began last month when Ethiopia’s reformist new prime minister fully accepted a peace deal that ended a 1998-2000 border war with Eritrea that killed tens of thousands.
Doualeh recalled that the Security Council imposed [unjust] sanctions on Eritrea in 2009 “because of its aggression against Djibouti and its refusal to withdraw its troops from the disputed area, and its rejection of all efforts aimed at mediating between the two parties.”
Between 2010 and 2017 Qatar attempted to mediate a settlement but that effort failed, and Qatar withdrew its 450 peacekeeping troops from the border. Djibouti accused Eritrean troops of occupying the Dumeira mountain area shortly after the peacekeepers left on June 13, 2017, and lodged a formal complaint with the African Union.
“Eritrean forces continue to occupy Djiboutian territory, prisoners of war remain unaccounted for, threats of force continue to emanate from the Eritrean side and the risk of violent confrontation is once again high,” Doualeh said.
He warned that without any effort to end the border dispute, the U.N. monitoring group has said: “the situation on the ground remains vulnerable to provocation by both parties, which could result in the rapid escalation of the conflict.”
“There is thus an urgent need for a new dispute settlement mechanism,” Doualeh said.
He said Djibouti applauds the secretary-general’s recent decision to refer a longstanding border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana to the International Court of Justice.
He also noted that Eritrea had successfully resolved a dispute with Yemen over their sea boundary and a Red Sea island through binding international arbitration.
Doualeh said Djibouti will “consider in good faith any proposals that you or the Security Council might make with regard to the appropriate means of peaceful dispute settlement.”
The cold war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is now over. Diplomatic and economic relations resume. The future once again looks bright.
BY BERHE HABTE-GIORGIS, Professor Emeritus
The last weekend saw historic developments in the relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia: an end to two decades of state of war and return to peace relations to pre-war years. The details of the agreement include implementation of the decision of the Boundary Commission, to “forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation” and “to ensure regional peace, development, and cooperation.”
As an ongoing process, the two countries will have a consultative group to work out details of all issues. Implementation of some points of the agreement has already started. The two sides seem to be determined not to waste any time.
With the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia is following a new course not only in relations with its neighbor Eritrea but also in its internal governance. The whole atmosphere exudes liberalism in politics and the economy. One thing we can say is that on issues of governance, Dr. Abiy Ahmed is steering Ethiopia away from imminent danger and possible fragmentation.
In international relations, the reconciliatory position taken by Ethiopia on relations with Eritrea is the most significant. All governments and international organizations have lauded the move and promised their full support for the implementation of the policy. The public outburst of love and affection to the Ethiopian Prime Minister and his entourage by Eritreans of all walks of life and age during his visit to Asmara two weeks ago shows the depth of the public sentiment and craving for peace.
The key factor in the relations between the two countries is “the implementation of the border decision.” As simple as it looks, the TPLF leadership refused to allow demarcation of the border despite its approval both before and after the decision. That was the monkey wrench in the peace process.
At this stage, all the means that could be mustered by Ethiopia and its supporters (handlers) were used. It started with an attempt to reject the Border Commission Decision at the UN Security Council, the imposition of sanctions on trumped-up charges for alleged support to Al-Shabab, and continued to this day using ‘moving goalpost’ series of false charges.
The charges kept on changing even when the original reason was proven to be false. The situation continued for eighteen years. Other attempts to weaken Eritrea involved using the pull-effect of immigration of Eritrean youth to North America and Europe. Isolation and demonization of the Eritrean Government and leadership were put into full effect with the eventual aim of elimination.
The Government and people of Eritrea stood their ground, maintaining solid defense capability and investing in infrastructure for food self-sufficiency, education and healthcare. All these tasks had to be performed while maintaining a reliable defense force.
In the meantime, the legitimacy of the TPLF was challenged by the majority Oromo and Amhara. They called the bluff and went for strict implementation of the provisions of the federal constitution at all levels. This was supported, and in some cases spearheaded by the youth and population at large.
The election of Lemma Megersa as head of the Oromo local administration and Dr. Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister was the culmination of the process of ousting the TPLF group. Several policies and practices were reversed. Political prisoners were freed and people are encouraged to exercise their rights fully without fear.
Hence, the change in policy towards Eritrea is part of the basic change taking place within Ethiopia. With the ulterior motive of the TPLF gone, there was no bone of contention between the two countries. The Eritrean people and government seem to realize this point. The spontaneous welcome of the Eritrean people to the visiting Ethiopian Prime Minister shows the readiness of the Eritrean people to move forward.
Actually, the change taking place now was the position of the Eritrean Government before the start of the war in 1998. In Eritrea, one can actually feel the peace – it is everywhere in the atmosphere. The Implementation of the terms of the agreement will start in a matter of days.
In addition to the prevalence of peace, there is a huge peace dividend that accrues to both countries. The effect of these benefits will be reflected directly in their economies. It was recently disclosed that Ethiopian Airlines loses US $100,000 per flight for not using the Eritrean airspace.
Potash from the Danakil area is a few miles from the Red Sea coast and this will reduce the transportation cost of the commodity for export. Similarly, the northern part of Ethiopia will benefit from the short access to the sea.
For Eritrea, far less military expenditure that was necessary for the defense of its sovereignty will entail positive ramifications for rapid growth of its economy. Lifting of the sanctions will open up investment and tourism. Ethiopian Airlines carries tourists to Egypt, East Africa, and Ethiopia. Many of these tourists can be lured to visit Eritrea on their way, for a little additional cost. Ethiopia itself attracts tourists whose main destinations are Egypt and East Africa. Ethiopians who come to enjoy the Red Sea coast and resort areas will, by itself be a good segment of the tourist market. The free-trade zone and the Massawa area, in general, can be turned into a gateway for central and western Africa. The Chinese trade route that passes over the Red Sea can find a convenient landing spot for Africa.
In the meantime, the challenge of the advent of peace on Eritrea can be daunting. There will be a shift from the war mode to the peace mode and that includes the way priorities are set, resources allocated, and tasks performed. There will also be a host of other programs to be restarted that have been shelved away because of the war situation and sanctions.
However, Eritrea has gained enough experience in running a fast-growing economy and smooth administration during the pre-war years. Now it will be in a much better situation. Thus, the prospect for fast recovery of Eritrean economy and restart of all programs is encouraging.
The availability of educated human resource and infrastructure in the form of dams and irrigation systems will speed up growth in agro-industry and export of such products. The start of potash mining and other minerals will provide the finance for investment in several sectors of the economy. The pent-up demand for housing is so huge, because of the stoppage of construction for several years, that it will be the main economic activity and source of employment for several years to come. Developing the inputs for the construction industry locally will be additional investment areas. This sector had started on a good footing during the prewar years.
The whole process of restarting the economy, revamping the administration and demobilization will occupy the government for a long time to come. Addressing these critical issues will result in significant growth and a shift in the economy and society.
In the long run, Eritrea with a small population will be dependent on international trade if it is to attain a significantly higher level of economic activity. Effective utilization of the young minds in hi-tech and science fields will be the main players in the new arena. The means for encouraging the young minds have to be developed if the country is going to benefit from them.
Thus, it is prudent to assume that current developments in the political arena in Ethiopia will be crucial for the direction the country is going to take in the future. So far they are encouraging.
I’m thankful to God who made this day possible during our lifetime! What just happened in Asmara cannot be attributed to men and women alone. This historic happening is a little short of a miracle!
In recent years, the UAE’s increasing interest in the Horn of Africa adds a new complication to Djibouti’s predicament. The UAE has acquired rights to 
Potash from the Danakil area is a few miles from the Red Sea coast and this will reduce the transportation cost of the commodity for export. Similarly, the northern part of Ethiopia will benefit from the short access to the sea.