BY E. ABRAHAM

A relative, albeit confused, calm has set in Ethiopia after the election of the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD). Confused because no one seems to tell whether the calm is due to the state of emergency (SoE) that was declared just before his election or due to his hypnotic messages of hope of evangelical proportions.

Further confusion may have arisen from the uncertainty by many as to whether he is the real deal i.e. a real reformer; or just a magical saviour-in-chief of the TPLF.

Put bluntly, the million-dollar question would be: Is PM Abiy ‘the silver bullet’ and a custom-made-soother offered by the TPLF as a cynical response to the multitude of demands by Ethiopians? or is he really part and parcel of the transforming solution the people of Ethiopia have been vigorously and persistently demanding for throughout the last three to five years?

The one thing there is little confusion about though is over the fact that it is what had started out as a small scale popular protest against a government master plan, in an obscure tiny town of Ginchi in Oromia region nearly three years ago, that had led to the events of the last few months in Ethiopia culminating in the election of the new PM. The unrest that followed throughout Oromia region spearheaded by the Qeerroo (youth), although the most formidable, is by no means the only issue with which the TPLF in Ethiopia has been battling with lately.

Prior to that, there were proclamations of anti-terrorism, media and civil societies laws which many rightly believed were designed to smother free speech and political dissent by targeting journalists and political activists that were critical of the TPLF led government.

As was expected, many of the most critical and vocal of those journalists and activists had ended up in the many prisons of the country using those laws as instruments.

There was also another ongoing weekly protest (right after Friday afternoon prayers) by Muslims, mainly in the capital Addis Ababa, against state interference in their religious affairs and governance – with the most peaceful and humble plea: ‘let our voices be heard’.  The government, instead of listening and addressing their legitimate concerns, again ended up sending the leaders and organizers of those protests to jail.

Meanwhile, following the spread (covering the entire region) and seemingly unstoppable nature of the Oromo protests and their apparent success, the Amhara youth in the North (Gondar and Bahir Dar) joined their Oromo sisters and brothers in protests of their own. They were initially triggered by local grievances surrounding Wolkait identity and their territorial dispute with the TPLF’s homeland Tigray. They quickly grew in to becoming national in scope and demands of radical changes in the way the country is currently governed became their focus.

The regime’s response to every popular demand has so far been the use of brutal force to intimidate and to try and bring protesters into submission. More than a thousand people have so far been killed and tens of thousands of others have been jailed, made to disappear or have fled the country.

Furthermore, on another front and at around the same period, the different armed groups including those ethnically organized (most of them based in Eritrea) were also ramping up pressure by ambushing and attacking government troops in various parts of the country but mainly in the northern regions.

One of those armed groups, which is also suspected to have been having a role in the ongoing civil unrest in Ethiopia, is the Arbegnoch Ginbot 7 (AG7) front. It is one of the more popular organizations led by a Professor, Berhanu Nega (PhD). The source of its popularity lies mainly on its politics of national unity and Ethiopian patriotism visa vis the widely unpopular policies of the current TPLF regime of ethnic federalism to a level where it has inserted a provision in the national constitution to allow for the secession of ethnic regional states.

Around four years ago, Andargachew Tsige (who has just been released from prison), the secretary general of AG7, was kidnapped by the TPLF security forces from a Yemeni airport. He was en route to Eritrea where he was leading the resistance movement at the time. Following such a brazen attack, the leader of AG7 had to send a strong message of commitment to their followers by leaving behind a university appointment in the US and basing himself in Eritrea to lead the ‘all rounded’ struggle on the ground.

Arguably one of the two most significant political events of the decade in Ethiopia – perhaps next only to the death of the former PM Meles Zenawi – the kidnapping provoked massive reactions especially from Diaspora Ethiopians; never seen since the 2005 botched elections. It triggered a new wave of activism by providing a long missing unifying hero in Andargachew Tsige.

Indeed, those diaspora activists and their followers have been actively involved in linking up with the local protests and resistance movements. They have also been able to open a new battle front of their own by organizing embargoes on remittances and boycotts of Ethiopian services and consumable exports targeting the diaspora. Such measures have caused significant additional damage to an economy already suffering from diminishing interest from foreign direct investment, affecting exports; and from reduced tourist inflow – both scared off by the ongoing insecurity due to protests and armed clashes.

Nature has not been so kind to the regime either, as millions of people have been requiring food assistance for the past consecutive few years. This year alone, more than eight million people are affected.

Not surprisingly therefore, the TPLF led government was not expected to survive such a manifold of challenges and most believed that it was just a matter of time before it collapsed. That was a near unanimous view as recently as three months ago.

And such was the backdrop against which the TPLF, its creations the EPRDF and its member organizations the OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM had started their marathon meetings back in November 2017. Ethiopians were once again promised that the EPRDF was set for a ‘renewal’ by cleaning its house and the houses of each of its member organizations, and for once made it appear like a reform was imminent.

Sure enough, the clean-up started off convincingly well with a seemingly bloody reshuffle in TPLF’s heartland Tigray region. At times, it looked like the bitterness and bickering amongst the bigwigs of that region was threatening TPLF implosion. A ‘faction’ led by the former president of Tigray region, which had the former first lady in its corner, apparently lost in the fight for dominance costing both their high-profile jobs. There was an expectation that it could spread to include the scalp of other prominent backers of the ousted group including the army chief. Well, that didn’t happen. But instead, it had taken the extraordinary turn in appointing the then federal deputy prime minister (considered to be the front man of the ‘winning faction’) as the new chairman of the TPLF and president of Tigray regional state. Again, such a move by the TPLF gave every indication of a junta in disarray—going back to base to regroup.

Not everyone was convinced with such an assessment though, as there were many who suspected that the whole show could have just been a highly planned and orchestrated crisis to give the impression of weakness and surrender.

According to those suspicions, such a move could have given the TPLF enough time and the breathing space it desperately needed to formulate its next move or to set in motion an already planned one. In boxing terminology, they call this feinting. And that feinting may have also slowed the momentum of the opposition and the protesters and may have taken their focus away from the real fight and in to premature and hypothetical deliberations about post-TPLF Ethiopia.

The drama unfolding ever since, especially up until the election of the new PM, seems to strongly support such suspicions. The sensational leaks and email scandals that were coming out of the TPLF camp, the drama surrounding the release of political prisoners, the PR campaigns promoting personalities within the OPDO/EPRDF including the eventual PM, the sudden resignation of the former PM, and subsequent speculations about who was going to replace him, the declaration of the state of emergency (SoE) following the resignation, the drama surrounding the voting in parliament on the SoE, and the rumours around the notion that the TPLF was strongly against the election of the new PM, etc. may have all been indicators of a well-managed PR, disinformation and diversionary campaign to try and effect an outcome whereby the TPLF could get to weather the storm and live another day.

One may call it ‘Enboch-politics’, after the sea-weed on Lake Tana. Politics in Ethiopia may have just entered a new sphere—a ‘politico stratosphere’—and it doesn’t smell indigenous (Abesha) at all. If anything, Abesha would most likely fake strength not a weakness.

Eventually, such a heightened and frenetic drive of the last several months had culminated in the election of the new PM Abiy Ahmed (PhD) to be the chairman of the EPRDF and subsequently the Prime Minister of Ethiopia around two months ago. And considering the relative calm in the country following his election as compared to what it was like in the preceding months, it would be very hard to believe that this was an outcome the TPLF was forced to accept. Never mind members and supporters of the EPRDF, even some of the most critical in the opposition camp are expressing hope that this could be a ‘game changer PM with a potential to bring crucial reforms and to open up the political space’ in the country.

In all fairness though, the new PM is hardly a known quantity; at least not before the recent PR campaign catapulted him to prominence and to the public’s attention. Hence, the hopes and expectations of many including some in the opposition camp are mainly based on messages of his inaugural speech and his other orations previously delivered, and which were made widely available online and in the local media at the height of the PR frenzy. In many of those speeches, including his maiden one in parliament, he seems to have successfully managed to snatch the message of unity and Ethiopian patriotism from most opposition groups; depriving them of any traction to criticize his appointment.

Perhaps what is more ironic is that, the same message of Ethiopian unity and patriotism that had been used to save TPLF’s neck at the height of its 1998-2000 war with Eritrea seems to have been used once again for a similar purpose. On that very note, and notwithstanding the renewed call for peace by the new PM, alarm bells should start ringing in Eritrea. Who knows if a seemingly ‘patriotic’ and popular leader could be what the TPLF was waiting for to be used to mobilize the public for another shot at war with Eritrea.

Recent, positive moves by the new PM in releasing political prisoners and the open arm policy towards opposition groups could also have an impact and could be put to an evil use by the TPLF in this regard. Although fully and unconditionally accepting the Algiers agreement and the EEBC’s decisions is a slight improvement over previous false-starts, what the gallant Eritrean youth in the trenches facing off the occupying TPLF forces would like to experience is finding out one morning that they are all gone. Anything less would lack the sincerity the situation deserves.

Going back to the topic of the PM’s patriotic messages in his inaugural speech, they were so focused on trying to match opponent’s rhetoric almost word for word that he deliberately stayed away from the messages of the ruling party that made it possible for him to become a PM in the first place. Avoiding to mention any of the cardinal principles of the EPRDF, including legacies, indicate that the speech was massively sanitized to a point where he sounded like a PM from the opposition camp.

As anyone with a working knowledge of how the ruling party in Ethiopia operates could easily understand, such ‘sanitization’ could only be possible with the full endorsement of the TPLF/EPRDF party apparatus, implying premeditation and tactics.

The PM’s upbringing, which was mostly nurtured by the ruling party since his teenage years and his long and loyal service to the party (and to the intelligence services in the army) would automatically endear him to the supporters of the current regime and other affiliate ethnic organizations who look up to the TPLF as their guardian.

Hence, that obvious side of his story didn’t necessarily require a mention or elaboration in his speeches; perhaps with the view that he would have enough time to reveal that side of his commitment in action rather than words. A long and loyal service may also mean plenty of opportunity for the TPLF to have accumulated enough dirt on the new PM—which might come in handy in making sure that he stayed in line and on message at all times.

On the other hand, the lack of criticism bordering on good will, and the wait and see approach taken by the opposition camp may not necessarily reflect their true feelings. A seemingly popular newly elected PM, whose rhetoric comes straight out of their (oppositions’) text books, doesn’t make for a very good target. Openly criticizing him or opposing his appointment could prove to be politically costly or even suicidal to some. Such is the space which most in the opposition have been cornered to by the TPLF that although they may be very much aware of what is going on, they are unable to say anything much less do something about it.

Obviously, some may just be playing dumb and working behind the scenes to up the ante in continuing with the project of disqualifying the TPLF (the developing situation in the Ethiopian Somali region could be an early sign).

Overall, and whether people like it or not, the TPLF (or whoever may be running it from behind) may have just done something spectacular for the short term. It might have drawn an Ace in the person of the new PM that seems to have ticked all the boxes as a potential ‘neutralizer’ to most of the threats it has been facing for the last few years.

A young (Qeerroo) practicing Protestant from an Oromo-Muslim background with a PhD must be such a once in a life time bargain. It may appear a little myopic but from a purely contemporary political context in Ethiopia it is a staggering package one can only dream of. It is also interesting to note that, for the second time in a row and in a country dominated by majority Orthodox Christians and Muslims, the PM of Ethiopia is a practising evangelical Christian, and it should be obvious who this move is intended to please. The BBC’S latest Hard Talk interview with AG7’s spokesperson could shade some light as to whether that move has paid off.

Although most may consider such a move by the TPLF as very superficial and cosmetic, without necessarily wanting to genuinely tackle the real issues or relinquish power, one thing the TPLF has worked so hard in the more than 25 years it has been in power is to make sure that the identity (ethnic or religious) of an office holder carries considerable weight. And based on such reckoning, which seems to have worked so far, Abiy Ahmed (PhD) would be considered to be the soother to almost all of the protesting segments of society in Ethiopia; and an antidote to some of the most potent opposition figures and personalities. Every aspect of the PM’s identity and his virtues seem to have been weaponized.

Consequently, despite the attempt to make people believe otherwise, it would appear that the TPLF may have gotten what it desperately wanted. Based on such logic, it may also be safe to assume that the newly elected PM may not necessarily be substantially different from his predecessor. They both are TPLF’s creations (‘wall-papers?’) and its answers to pressing challenges at various points in its life time. It is to be remembered that there was a similar drama of rumoured ‘unwillingness’ by the TPLF of initially accepting the appointment of the previous PM as well.

Choosing to completely and temporarily fade in to the background this time around, the TPLF had nevertheless been keen to show who really was in charge by some of its presumed actions taken shortly after the election of the new PM. One case in point is when it apparently sent the newly elected PM, as his inaugural assignment, to the Ethiopian Somali region.

The leadership in the Ethiopian Somali region has long been courted by the TPLF as a ‘special ally’ and a potential spoiler to the restive Oromia region. Returning the favour, the region’s security apparatus and its president have been showing unflinching support for the TPLF by way of doing TPLF’s dirty work in their own region, across the border in Somalia, as well as the neighboring Oromia region.

Just recently for example, the security forces in the Somali region had unleashed mayhem resulting in the displacement of close to a million Oromos who were residents there. It was a massive headline grabbing tragedy which may have also helped divert attention and political debate (some of the most prominent protest organizers were busy fundraising for the displaced) while the TPLF was busy orchestrating its spectacular comeback. A similar tactic had been successfully used in Darfur by some ‘actors’ while processing South Sudan’s independence.

The eventual coming to power of an Oromo as the new PM of Ethiopia would have then worried the president of the Somali region the most. There could be some substance, therefore, to the assumption that the new PM would’ve been following orders from the TPLF when he kickstarted his career by visiting that same region. The official reasons given to the PM could well be different from those given to the president of the Somali region. Nevertheless, it very much comes across as a reward to the president of the Somali region for a job well done and may have also been a tacit assurance to him that nothing had changed and his future would be safe.

Another most symbolic act of what may become of the newly elected PM came during his visit to Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray regional state. During that visit, in front of stadium full of TPLF supporters, the PM was given a speech written in Tigrinya (vs his strength of Amharic eloquence) and was made to read it like a toddler while the president of the region and chairman of the TPLF was standing right behind him, watching. The expression on the latter’s face was priceless.

One particular statement in that speech literally reads: “Tigray without Ethiopia and Ethiopia without Tigray are like a car without engine”. Now, an engine that is bigger than the thing it is running is an oxymoron. Whoever wrote that speech therefore knew exactly what they were talking about and the message was loud and clear: Despite the deliberate confusion and disinformation that was designed to make it look like the TPLF had just lost to a young and reformist clique within the EPRDF, the TPLF still remains firmly in control as the engine of the government in Ethiopia.

And so far, none of the decisions made or actions taken by the new PM could be said antagonistic to the TPLF or even remotely undesirable. In fact, they may actually be helping the TPLF get off scot-free—to then start afresh on a clean slate.

The post Ethiopia: A New Prime Minister with a Weaponized Identity appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY SIMON WELDEMICHAEL

After sixteen years of holding an arrogant and irresolute position over the decision of the Eritrea Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC), word of Ethiopia’s recent “acceptance” of the ruling has recently been heard. Ethiopia’s past actions not only undermine the “final and binding” April 2002 EEBC decision but also the December 2000 Algiers and the June 2000 Cessation of Hostilities Agreements.

For sixteen years, Ethiopia has occupied Eritrea’s sovereign territory, intensified resettlement in territory awarded and delimitated to Eritrea, and conducted various military and propaganda provocations. Ethiopia’s government repeatedly condemned and undermined the final and binding nature of the EEBC decision as “null and void”. Instead of working to implement the boundary demarcation, they chose to complicate the issue. One time they asked clarification, another time they demanded negotiation, and yet another alteration. For the last two decades, Ethiopia worked against peace and instigated conflicts across the region.

Flip-flopping was the political culture of the TPLF-led Ethiopian government. When the EEBC gave its decision on 13 April 2002, the Ethiopian government misinformed its people and the international community that the Commission awarded Badme and other territories to Ethiopia. The trumpet of happiness and acceptance was blaring in Addis Ababa. A month latter on 13 May 2002, Ethiopia submitted a “Request for Interpretation, Correction and Consultation” letter to the commission. However, the Commission did not find uncertainty in the decision and concluded that “the Ethiopian request is inadmissible and no further action will be taken upon it.”

In December 2004, Ethiopia addressed to the President of the EEBC on the five-point proposal for resolving the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea. In the prelude of the letter of 25 November 2004, it states, “Reiterating Ethiopia’s conviction which remains unchanged that the decision of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission was flawed…” Since the decision was flawed, in its own eyes, they came up with the wily “five-point peace proposal” as an alternative. When the Boundary Commission’s Registry informed Eritrea about the new “Peace Proposal” Eritrea responded that the only peace plan that the Commission is mandated to implement is the Algiers Agreement of 12 December 2000.

On 3 December 2004, the late Prime Minister Meles Zenewai, in an interview with Reuters, stated, “On the so-called 85 percent of the boundary, we don’t have any objection and it can be demarcated straightaway. The remaining 15 per cent of the border could be solved through dialogue.”

Three days later, in a 7 December 2004 interview with the Ethiopian Herald, the Prime Minister again condemned the 13 April 2002 decision: “We have reiterated that the decision passed by the Commission does not bring about peace… Accordingly, we suggested a proposal for dialogue and negotiation to reach a solution.”

>> ALSO READ : How Genuine is Ethiopia’s Peace Offer to Eritrea?

The Ethiopian government has repeatedly informed the Ethiopian people and the international community that the EEBC decision is null and void. The government wished to amend the decision and sought to give legitimacy to its illegal occupation of sovereign Eritrean territory. Negotiation before implementation of the boundary demarcation is an attempt by Ethiopia to reopen the court verdict. This attempt has been foiled by the strict persistence of Eritrea to the application of the court verdict and the professionalism of the EEBC.

The EEBC has not turned to the second phase of its work, the demarcation of the boundary solely due to Ethiopian defiance. Both parties have agreed, the Commission’s delimitation determination is “final and binding.” They also agreed that the demarcation has to be done on the ground as delimited in the delimitation decision. The agreement stipulated clearly that variation of that boundary or the elaboration of some new boundary is not allowed. This conclusion is reflected in the Commission’s Demarcation Directions of 8 July 2002, which reads as follows: “The Commission has no authority to vary the boundary line.”

Therefore any attempt to substitute the 13 April 2002 EEBC decision is illegal and Eritrea reiterated that view and rejected any alteration of the decision. In this case, the professionalism of the EEBC deserves appreciation for its persistence in its decision and resistance to the various forms of pressure to depart from the strict application of the boundary line.

Article 4(15) of the December Agreement provides that “The parties agree that the delimitation and demarcation determinations of the Commission shall be final and binding. Each party shall respect the border so determined, as well as the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the other party.”

Ethiopia violates the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Eritrea. Skirmishes and military provocations continue to happen all over the border. Considering the continued occupation of Badme and other Eritrean territories, aggressive incursions such as the Tsorona incident of 2016 and many others, Ethiopia’s involvement in the project of destabilizing Eritrea engineered by Qatar, sensationalized and orchestrated media campaigns, and conflicting speeches of the Ethiopian officials, it’s difficult to believe the supposedly “new” message coming from Ethiopia.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in his inaugural address, stated that “The Somali, the Sidama, the Benishangul, the Walaita, the Gambella, the Gurage, the Afar, the Silte, the Kambata, the Hadiya, the Harari, and all other peoples of Ethiopia have fallen saying my death before Badme and intermingled with its soil.”

Ethiopians are not only killed in Badme. During the thirty years war of independence, thousands of invading Ethiopian army were buried in different parts of Eritrea. The same story also happened again during the TPLF invasion. Then, according to his explanation, whatever land has Ethiopian buried is Ethiopian. After the government announced the acceptance of the agreement, various media outlets of the TPLF broadcasted orchestrated hostile and inflammatory public opinion. On one side they expressed their support and on the other side they bring people demonstrating against the decision.

Although it’s good to be optimistic, equally the world should know that Ethiopia is not a genuine partner for peace and it is not and never was interested in international verdict. If the new government really wants to solve the problem it must simply submit to the UNSC its unconditional respect for the work of the Boundary Commission. In the past, when the Ethiopian government denounced the ruling, it sent a letter to the UN and the EEBC. Similarly, now they have to send a letter of acceptance to concerned bodies.

The time of mediation and arbitration is over. The diplomatic and political aspect of the dispute culminated in the EEBC decision. What is left is the genuine cooperation of Ethiopia in implementation on ground. There is nothing new on the Eritrean side. Eritrea has already accepted the decision, before sixteen years. The international community should now force Ethiopia to accept the ruling. The next steps to be taken are clear: Ethiopia must withdraw its troops from Eritrean territory and cooperate fully with expeditious demarcation of the boundary. These positive actions would bring peace to the Ethiopian people, the people of Eritrea, and the Horn.

As far as Eritrea is concerned, there is no time in history that the country goes against any international agreement. Eritrea has showed its legality at all times with any party. Eritrea has a tradition of obedience to international law and arbitration. Among many things, Eritrea’s compliance to settle the dispute on questions of territorial sovereignty and delimitation of marine boundary with neighboring Yemen is a case in point.

Eritrea is a trusted, principled, and law abiding country. No one can bring a legal case that Eritrea fails to accept. All past records proved that Eritrean ways are ways of obedience to the rule of law, and all her paths are peace. The peace loving people of Eritrea are again waiting for Ethiopia to undertake practical and honest step. Words are not enough to prove the sincerity of Ethiopia’s acceptance. As for Eritrea, it must be patient, vigilant, and cautious. If the Ethiopian message is genuine, it’s the reward of our perseverance. Let a time of war be replaced by a time of peace and cooperation.

The post The Sincerity of Ethiopia’s Acceptance of the Boundary Ruling appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY AMBASSADOR HERMAN J. COHEN

In 1991, as the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, I led peace talks between Ethiopia and Eritrean separatists. The negotiations ended a nearly thirty-year war and established Eritrea as an independent state.

These outcomes were a geopolitical success, but they did not resolve the bitter acrimony between the two countries. And since that moment, the relationship between these neighbours has been frozen in hostility. It has included a 1998-2000 border war, shadowy intelligence efforts, and accusations of tacit support for rival militant groups. Both sides have maintained a heavy and expensive military presence along their border, and a once vigorous economic relationship has totally dried up.

Yet a détente may finally be emerging, driven by the arrival of a new Prime Minister in Addis Ababa, Abiy Ahmed. On 6 June, the Ethiopian government announced it would finally implement the 2000 Algiers Agreement, an internationally sponsored peace treaty and border demarcation signed by Ethiopia and Eritrea.

“All that we have achieved from the situation of the last 20 years is tension,” Abiy later remarked. “We need to expend all our efforts toward peace and reconciliation and extricate ourselves from petty conflicts and divisions, and focus on eliminating poverty.” The prime minister referred to Ethiopians and Eritreans as “brotherly peoples” and expressed hopes for “economic ties between Asmara and Addis Ababa”.

The centrepiece of this move is the highly symbolic town of Badme, a disputed territory which Ethiopia illegally occupied in 1998, sparking the border war. As part of the peace agreement, a Hague commission declared Badme part of Eritrea, but Ethiopia never accepted this decision and continued to occupy the town.

Ethiopia’s pledge to cede Badme to Eritrea is therefore deeply momentous. Eritrea has consistently stated that all issues would be on the table for negotiation as soon as Ethiopia withdrew from Badme, a symbol of Eritrean resentment since the last war ended in 2002.

This means that, in theory, the door is now open for bilateral discussions. It is hard to overstate how positive a friendly relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea could be for the region, which has been dogged by poverty, famine, and insecurity.

It is too early to say if and when such talks could be held, but these are the key issues that would need to be resolved as priorities for the partnership to move forwards.

1) A mutual security guarantee

Since the end of the war in 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea have accused each other of supporting “opposition groups”, both armed and unarmed. It is difficult to confirm or deny their allegations, but it is clear that the first order of business should be a mutual security guarantee. Both governments should agree not to allow their territories to be used for hostile activity and pledge to reduce their military forces along the border by 80%.

The two defence establishments could then begin discussions on joint actions against “jihadist” militants threatening the security and stability of both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

2) Re-opening the border for trade

Prior to the war, Ethiopia and Eritrea enjoyed what was essentially a common market. Cross-border trade flowed freely, with neither tariff nor non-tariff barriers. Eritrea’s introduction in 1997 of its own currency, the Nakfa, made cross-border trade more complicated, but had little impact on commerce. Ethiopia’s later insistence that cross-border trade be conducted in US dollars created an additional impediment.

The two governments should now declare that the border will re-open to commerce with no barriers. To overcome the inhibiting factor of US dollar trade financing, the governments can jointly request that the International Monetary Fund establish a currency-clearing mechanism allowing businesses to pay for goods in either country’s local currency. The IMF has established several such mechanisms in other regions of the world.

3) Restoring access to the ports

Prior to the war, Ethiopia had full access to the Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa. Ethiopia had its own customs facility in Assab where they cleared imports destined for its markets. All of this was interrupted by the war. After Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia became landlocked and had to rely exclusively on the railroad from Addis Ababa to the port of Djibouti, bypassing Eritrean territory.

There is no reason why the normalisation discussions could not arrange for a restoration of Ethiopia’s access to Eritrea’s two ports. An existing high-quality road from Massawa port to Ethiopia could serve northern Ethiopia. The Assab port meanwhile is relatively close to the capital Addis Ababa.

Under such an arrangement, Eritrea would gain revenue from Ethiopian rental payments. Ethiopia would gain more efficient movement of imported merchandise and aid. In addition, Ethiopia would no longer have to rely exclusively on the distant port of Djibouti and the less-than-reliable railway connection.

4) Removing sanctions against Eritrea

The UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritrea in 2011 based on some weak evidence of its alleged support for al-Shabaab militants in Somalia. Since the allegations against Eritrea are now old and there is no evidence of recent activities, it would be appropriate for Ethiopia and the US to jointly sponsor a resolution in the Security Council to lift these sanctions.

The new regime in Ethiopia has brought fresh hope of a healthy and stable relationship with Eritrea. The two governments undoubtedly have additional issues they will want to raise during discussions. But if they start with those above, they will be well on their way to a win-win outcome.

Ambassador Herman J. Cohen was US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

The post Cohen: How Ethiopia and Eritrea Can Forge a New Relationship appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY ARGAW ASHINE | THE EAST AFRICAN

Cracks have emerged in the ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Front (EPRDF), over last week’s decision to make peace with Eritrea and open up the economy to private investors.

A member party, the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), has openly opposed the acceptance of the Algiers Agreement and the privatization of state enterprises.

TPLF has termed the last week’s resolutions as flawed and a contradiction of the ruling coalition’s guiding principles.

The powerful member of the coalition and the mother party of late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, has now requested an emergency meeting of EPRDF council, a governing body of 180 members.

Unconditional acceptance

It is, however, noteworthy that senior TPLF officials were party to the EPRDF decisions and never raised any objections then.

The EPRDF executive committee announced its unconditional acceptance of the Algiers Agreement, signed in 2000 with Eritrea. Based on the agreement, Ethiopia was expected to withdraw its troops from the disputed border town of Badme.

TPLF was also unhappy with the decision to partially privatize state enterprises, including the Ethiopian Airlines.

The disenchanted party, in a statement issued late Wednesday, also expressed its disapproval of the appointments done by Minister Abiy Ahmed. The party accused Mr. Abiy of marginalizing the ethnic Tigrians.

Mr. Abiy last week removed long-serving Army chief Gen Samora Yenus and head of the Intelligence service Getachew Assefa, both Tigrians. He appointed Gen Seare Mekonen, also a Tigrian, the new Army chief.

Held a demonstration

The Tigrians fought against former Ethiopian military regime from the early 1970s to 1991 and played a key role in the formation of EPRDF, a coalition of four parties in 1991.

The Tigrians only constitute 6 percent of the estimated 100 million Ethiopian population but have dominated the nation’s military, security, and economy in the past three decades.

Following the EPRDF decision to implement the Algiers agreement, local Badme and Irob residents [most of them resettled illegally after the end of the war] held a demonstration against the move, which they called a betrayal.

The Tigray region borders Eritrea.

The last three years’ massive and violent anti-government protests in Oromia and Amhara regions, plus the armed insurgency in northern Ethiopia, forced the ruling coalition to change its course and elect a new chairman, Mr. Abiy.

Since he took office, Mr. Abiy has embarked on a reform and reconciliation agenda, including working with the exiled opposition figures. His popularity was on the rise across the country and in the diaspora.

The post Cracks Emerge in Ethiopian Ruling Coalition appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY THE STREAM

A surprise announcement by Ethiopia’s prime minister to mend relations with neighbouring Eritrea is highlighting the rapid pace of his government’s agenda just eleven weeks since he was sworn in.

Abiy Ahmed of the ruling EPRDF coalition is offering to cede control of the northern border town of Badme and other disputed regions to Eritrea and abide fully by a peace deal that ended a two-year border war between the countries in 2000. At least 70,000 people were killed in the conflict. Relinquishing Badme to Eritrea would be in recognition of a UN-backed border commission ruling in 2002 that Badme belongs on the Eritrean side of the frontier.

Abiy says Ethiopia wants to put an end to nearly two decades of discord with Eritrea. So far the response from the Eritrean government, led by President Isaias Afwerki, has been muted. The country’s information minister has said in the past that Addis Ababa must first withdraw all its military forces from Badme and other occupied territories before a final peace accord can be agreed.

But while many Ethiopians agree with efforts to solidify a lasting peace with Eritrea and re-open the border, support has not been universal. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), one of four parties within the ruling coalition, said there was insufficient consultation inside the EPRDF’s 180-member council on both the peace offer and a separate plan to open state-owned enterprises to private investors.

Ethnic Tigrayans living in the northern border regions have also reacted angrily to the peace proposal as a betrayal of those who fought and died in the 1998-2000 border war.

The dissent from the TPLF, which has dominated the ruling coalition for nearly three decades, highlights the challenges Abiy faces to run a government that is inclusive of all Ethiopian ethnic groups.

In April he became Ethiopia’s first ethnic Oromo prime minister after he was elected by parliament in the wake of Hailemariam Desalegn’s resignation in February. He has so far ordered the release of more than 1,000 prisoners, many of whom were jailed within the last three years for their part in anti-government protests.

The post What Are the Prospects for Peace Between Ethiopia and Eritrea? appeared first on TesfaNews.

The USA has launched a “Soft Coup” in Ethiopia in an attempt to relieve growing revolutionary pressure from the Ethiopian people after three years of failed martial law rule.

These past three years had seen brutal repression with thousands killed and tens of thousands thrown into regime dungeons with no end in sight.

The devil was taking his due, with a growing foreign currency shortage, unemployment and hunger and disease stalking the land, and to top it off the decades-long divide and conquer ethnic warfare strategy of the regime has come home to roost.

Lead by pressure from the Oromo’s, over 40 million strong and Africa’s largest nationality, the old Abyssinian empire, Ethiopia, is coming apart at the seams. Most of the population, mainly Muslim, want independence or some sort of self-rule from the Orthodox Christian “Abyssinians” of Haile Sellasie and Menelik infamy continued by today’s ethnic minority Tigrayan regime.

In this “Soft Coup” the ruling regime, former Marxist-Leninist-Hoxha-ite guerrilla fighters from the province of Tigray turned 100% democratic (they won 100% of the seats in the Parliament the last election) have seen themselves pushed into the back seat with a 42-year-old Oromo, now installed as Prime Minister.

To understand just how unprecedented this is you have to understand a little Ethiopian history.

Ethiopia, or Abyssinia as it used to be known, is an African Empire created with Italian supplied firearms during the late 19th century. The biggest victims of the Ethiopian Empire were the Oromo peoples who until the Abbysinians of Menelik and later Haile Sellasie got their hands on Italian machine guns and artillery had used their legendary cavalry to sweep back all previous attempts to enslave them.

And enslave them the Abbysinians did, for after gunning down their warriors on the battlefield, the Amhara ethnic minority empire went on a rampage against their new subjects, enslaving, murdering and massacring across Africa’s largest nation in a wave of terror and destruction unprecedented in African history, overstanding even the African slave trade in brutality and extermination in such a short period.

It has been estimated that millions of Oromo were wiped out in the decades immediately after their defeat by the Abbysinian Empire, many starving to death as their cattle and graineries were looted. The Abbysinian soldiers were not paid salaries and took their livelihood by being freely allowed to loot and pillage after victory on the battlefield, guaranteed thanks to Italian supplied firepower.

When the Abbysinian brigands were done Africa’s largest nation was reduced to beggary and bondage with their Oromo town of Finefine annexed and renamed Addis Ababa, capital of a Christian Abbysinia.

So to have a Muslim, Oromo Prime Minister is no small matter in Ethiopia marking how much and quickly the times are changing. Of course, Don Yamamoto is behind all this, he hasn’t been the Ambassador to Ethiopia all these years and now Assistant Secretary of State for Africa and not learned a few things.

Anyone can see that the old guard regime die-hards weren’t going to keep a lid on the Ethiopian social pressure cooker much longer and if the USA didn’t act quickly it may find itself a day late and a dollar short in terms of influence.

For the USA, this is a nightmare in the making for Ethiopia has been the main recipient of US military investment and the center of US intelligence gathering in Africa and a local policeman on the beat in service to Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa, through which flows the commerce of Asia and Europe, the worlds biggest trading partners.

To avoid this, the USA has ordered a change in course for their regime henchmen with new faces being installed and promises of peace and prosperity in the wind, especially peace with Ethiopia’s number one nemesis and former colony, Eritrea.

To accomplish this veteran Horn of African “diplomat” Donald Yamamoto, now Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Africa has instituted a “soft coup” approach starting last year when the decision was made that the old Tigrayan ethnic minority regimes usefulness was now a liability.

Brute force and the iron fist had only made the masses of Ethiopian more resolute in their hatred of the regime and something pretty quick had to be done or the situation could begin to spiral out of control.

Hard cash from mainly the USA and the UK began to dry up, and the squeeze was on. With a $13billion trade deficit buying critical imports have become a robbing Peter to pay Paul strategy, and the resultant shortages and inflationary pressures have only increased the Ethiopian regime’s isolation.

Under Trump, the USA has seen a rapprochement with former arch-foe North Korea (arguably Asia’s only socialist country) and it seems Eritrea, Africa’s only socialist country, is finding a much more friendly reception at the US State Department these days.

The United Arab Emirates, who have built military and naval bases in Eritrea (in open defiance of UN Security Council Sanctions) are said to have Trump’s ear and have been pushing for lifting of sanctions and the economic embargo against Eritrea, with peace with Ethiopia and an explosion of trade for the Eritrean economy being a major incentive.

Now that the new Ethiopian regime leadership has announced, though not yet implemented, adherence to the Algiers peace treaty and border demarcation agreement, the Crown Prince of the UAE has arrived bearing $1billion of hard cash and $2billion in “investments”, an emergency injection of liquidity for a hard currency-strapped Ethiopia regime.

As for peace with their neighbors, Eritrea has stuck to our demands as detailed in the peace deal and border demarcation after the last aggression by Ethiopia and until the letter of the deal is in place, Eritrea has said it has nothing to talk to Ethiopia about.

Buying time is what the USA supported by the UAE is counting on with its new “soft coup” scheme for Ethiopia and the 90 million person question is whether the Ethiopian people, lead by the Oromo’s will bite the American/UAE bait or tell Pax American to go to hell and decide to break free from the Abyssinian empire and declare themselves independent.

The next few years could see a leopard change its spots, as in the old regime changing its coat. Or it could see a bust-up of Africa’s only indigenous empire, today’s Ethiopia.

With the disaster called South Sudan to learn from so-called “independence” could be jumping from the frying pan into the fire, with small, ill-organized countries easy pickings for the circling sharks lead by the United Snakes of Amerikkka, all to willing to incite “black on black, African tribal violence” rather than allow any truly independent African countries brought to birth.

Thomas C. Mountain is an independent journalist in Eritrea, living and reporting from here since 2006. See thomascmountain on Facebook or best reach him at thomascmountain at g mail dot com

The post USA’s “Soft” Coup in Ethiopia appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY REUTERS

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki raised hope for a breakthrough in one of Africa’s most intractable conflicts on Wednesday when he described recent peace overtures from archenemy Ethiopia as “positive signals”.

Speaking at a Martyrs’ Day event in the capital, Asmara, Isaias said he would send a delegation to Addis Ababa to understand the position of new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and “chart out a plan”.

It was the first response from Eritrea to Abiy’s shock pledge this month to honour all the terms of a peace deal that ended a 1998-2000 war between the Horn of Africa neighbours.

Adding to the positive mood, Abiy’s chief of staff said the prime minister welcomed Isaias’s statement and promised the Eritrean delegation would be welcomed “warmly and with considerable goodwill”.

The war drew comparisons to the First World War, with waves of soldiers forced to march through minefields towards Eritrean trenches where they were cut down by machine-gun fire.

As many as 80,000 are believed to have been killed in total.

Disputes over the still-militarised border, in particular the town of Badme, have kept the two sides at loggerheads, with Asmara using the Ethiopian threat to justify its hefty military spending and long-term conscription.

However, Abiy, a 41-year-old former soldier who has outlined a series of radical reforms since taking over in March, stunned Ethiopians this month by saying he was prepared to honour international rulings that put Badme, which Ethiopia has refused to cede, in Eritrea.

Isaias said the concession, which is likely to meet opposition from hardliners in Ethiopia’s ruling EPRDF coalition, stemmed from the desire of both countries to reach long-term “peace and harmony”.

“The positive signals issued in these past days can be seen as an expression of this popular choice. We can say that the positive messages which have been circulating of late are signs of the people’s choice,” he said, according to the official translation of his speech on state EriTV television.

>> MUST READ : Full Speech of President Isaias

“Outside myopic considerations of public relations stunts and advantages, we will send a delegation to Addis Ababa to gauge current developments directly and in depth as well as to chart out a plan for continuous future action.”

Constructive

There were no further details of the mission, including its date or remit, although Eritrea’s ambassador to Japan, Estifanos Afeworki, described it on Twitter as a “constructive engagement”.

Ethiopia’s prime minister “thanked & congratulated President Isayas Afwerki for the positive response to Ethiopia’s #peace and reconciliation overture,” Fitsum Arega, Abiy’s chief of staff, said on Twitter.

“He also expressed his readiness to welcome warmly and with considerable goodwill the Eritrean delegation to Addis. #Eritrea #Ethiopia.”

Eritrea has no diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, although it has an embassy in Addis as part of its representation to the African Union, whose headquarters are in the Ethiopian capital.

In parliament this week, Abiy acknowledged that the tension was inflicting a heavy economic cost on both countries and said Addis should no longer hide this price tag from the Ethiopian people, another stunning departure with the past.

Although welcomed across East Africa, Abiy’s concession met opposition from veterans of the war still living in Badme and ethnic Tigrayans living in Tigray province, which lies along the Eritrean border.

Some Tigrayans, who have long been the leading ethnic group in the EPRDF coalition that has run the nation of 100-million for more than two decades, are concerned their interests will be hurt if Badme is surrendered.

Residents told Reuters a protest had already taken place in the Irob district in Tigray over the decision by Abiy, a member of the Oromo ethnic group, Ethiopia’s largest.

After Abiy’s Badme announcement, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, a regional political party that had dominated the EPRDF until Abiy took office in April, came out swinging against any concessions to Asmara.

“The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front will not take part in any process that harms the interests of the people of Tigray,” it said, demanding that any withdrawal is linked to additional concessions from Eritrea.

The post Eritrea Bolsters Hope for Peace with Positive Response to Ethiopia’s Overture appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY FIKREJESUS AMAHAZION (Ph.D.)

On Wednesday, June 20th, Eritrea held its annual national commemoration service in memory of martyrs who sacrificed their lives during the struggle for independence and to safeguard the country’s sovereignty.

In addition to paying his respects and honoring the great sacrifices of Eritrea’s martyrs, H.E. President Isaias Afewerki responded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement on June 6th that Ethiopia is now willing to abide by the Algiers Agreement and the Eritrea Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) boundary decisions.

Speaking at Eritrea’s Patriot’s Cemetery, President Isaias stated that Eritrea was “sending a delegation” to Addis Ababa to better understand the current situation, begin “constructive engagement,” and to prepare a work plan for the future.

Of note, President Isaias also expressed his hope and confidence for better relations with the US administration, as well as Eritrea’s general willingness to build new ties and positive engagement with Washington.

Hours later, speaking in Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replied to President Isaias’ comments, thanking the Eritrean President for his decision, describing it as “historical news on a historical date.”

It was also highly notable that the Ethiopian PM’s response included several significant gestures of goodwill, including referring to President Isaias as his “brother,” stating that Eritrea’s delegation would be graciously welcomed “as Ethiopians,” and not simply “as guests,” speaking in Tigrinya (which is one of Eritrea’s three main working languages), and respectfully noting the importance of Eritrea’s Martyr’s Day.

Notably, days ago the Ethiopian PM, speaking in Parliament, also questioned Ethiopia’s delay in implementing the EEBC final and binding decisions.

Of course, many questions remain unanswered and specific details will have to be ironed out. However, after years of stalemate, bitter rivalry, antagonism, and tension, such developments between the two governments can only be regarded as highly positive and extremely encouraging.

Both countries are faced with a number of significant challenges, and thus an end to the costly – and largely unnecessary – conflict and tensions will allow the two to better focus their attention on addressing their various and considerable challenges.

For instance, with peace and stability, vital human and fiscal resources can be used to combat poverty or promote development, rather than having to be diverted toward defense and national security. A relationship between the two countries based on mutual respect, understanding, and cooperation will also contribute to promoting sustainable peace, security, and development across the region.

For example, before the outbreak of their conflict, from 1991 until 1998 Eritrea and Ethiopia had worked closely to bring about a solution to the Somali crisis. Moreover, the two countries, working together, can help promote and revitalize important regional security architectures that can play a pivotal role in the prevention, management, and resolution of conflicts.

In addition, it is important to recall that until the emergence of the conflict in 1998, the two countries enjoyed strong economic, cultural and security relations. Prior to the war, Ethiopia was Eritrea’s top export partner, and thousands of Ethiopians were employed throughout the country.

Furthermore, Ethiopia had been using the Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa at symbolic rates and without any hindrance (a point raised by PM Abiy Ahmed in a recent statement where he questioned the logic in using other more expensive and inefficient regional ports), while even during the war, Eritrea offered the use of its ports to transport humanitarian aid to Ethiopia.

For Eritrea, the immediate post-independence period was characterized by a focus on poverty reduction, reconstruction, and rehabilitation. Nearly 65 percent of the country’s liberation forces were demobilized and shifted into both the private and public sectors (note that another round of large-scale demobilization, under The Demobilization and Reintegration Program Project and carried out in partnership with the World Bank, occurred after the 1998-2000 conflict), and the country experienced the beginning of growth with macroeconomic stability.

Of note, from 1993 to 1997, Eritrea’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of nearly 12 percent, inflation averaged approximately 6 percent, the fiscal deficit including grants averaged approximately 5.5 percent of GDP, and gross international reserves were equivalent to 3.5 months of imports of goods and services (IMF 2016; Kidane 2015: 2; World Bank n.d.).

Admittedly, while such figures only offer a snapshot of the country during the time period, they do suggest that with the conditions of lasting peace and stability, there is quite a considerable potential in Eritrea for significant socio-economic growth and sustainable development.

Overall, as a result of the statements by Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders, this June 20th was a day not only of solemnly reflecting on the past but also one of looking to the future with considerable optimism and hope.

Ultimately, the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia not only want peace, they need and deserve it.

The post Eritrea and Ethiopia: Hopes for Peace and Progress appeared first on TesfaNews.

“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki have demonstrated courageous leadership by taking these steps toward peace” – White House

BY WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY

The United States is encouraged by the progress that Ethiopia and Eritrea have made to resolve longstanding disputes and normalize relations.

Over the past 20 years, the frozen conflict between these states has hindered stability and economic growth in the vital Red Sea region.

A durable peace will yield greater prosperity and security not only for the citizens of Ethiopia and Eritrea, but also for their neighbors, the United States, and the world.

The United States commends Ethiopia’s statement on June 5, 201,8 announcing that Ethiopia fully accepts the 2000 Algiers Agreement, issued in the context of positive political and economic reforms.

The United States also welcomes Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s June 20, 2018 commitment to send a delegation to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to advance the peace process.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki have demonstrated courageous leadership by taking these steps toward peace.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have a critical role in promoting stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa.

The United States looks forward to a full normalization of relations and the realization of our shared aspirations for both countries to enjoy enduring peace and development.

As a witness to the Algiers Agreement, the United States stands ready to facilitate progress toward this goal.

The post U.S. Commends Ethiopia and Eritrea Leaders for Taking Courageous Steps Toward Peace appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY BEREKET KIDANE

Although May 6, 1998, is generally considered the beginning of the 1998-2000 Eritrea-Ethiopia War, a border-related conflicted started earlier. Unreported incidents went as far back as 1992.

In 1993, Tigray Administrative Region initiated “Border Rectification Project” to redraw unilaterally its border with Eritrea. Eritrean farmers were forcibly removed from their land. Crops and livestock were confiscated. Several attempts were made to resolve the problem between 1993-1996 without much progress. The problem deteriorated beginning in 1997. What follows is a partial timeline of the dispute that started initially as a border dispute, but later expanded into a much wider war.

Events leading up to the war

April 20-21, 1997: A meeting to discuss border issues that had surfaced in the course of the previous year was held in Shire, Tigray, Ethiopia between the Vice President of the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, and the Deputy Governor of the Gash-Barka Region of Eritrea.

June 22-27, 1997: A sub-committee designated in accordance with the Shire decisions met to make a tour of the “demarcations,” a length it determined at about 40 kms. It was established then that at least three demarcations, each creeping into Eritrea had been laid on the ground.

June 1997: Tigrayan authorities ordered that no Eritrean farmer was to plough fields or build houses or sheds beyond the “unilaterally demarcated” line and that the inhabitants of Eritrean villages were to be evacuated.

July 18-19, 1997: Three truckloads of Ethiopian troops entered the Badme area and planted radio communications equipment. Eritrean territory inside the “unilaterally demarcated” area was, thus, put under patrol. Subsequently, massive expulsion of Eritreans begun.

July 19, 1997: Two battalions of the Ethiopian Army came to Adi Murug and their commander met with representatives of the Eritrean Army in the area. The Ethiopians explained that they were there to chase armed Ethiopian opposition groups that they believed to be in the Badda area, and requested entry. The battalions were let in on this understanding.

July 24, 1997: Ethiopian administrators instructed the Eritrean administrators to disband – they were taking over. They declared Adi Murug Ethiopian territory and appointed their own administrative committee.

August 8, 1997: Two Eritrean officials traveled to Addis Ababa to discuss Adi Murug and Badme with their counterparts in Ethiopia.

August 16, 1997: Less than a month after the Adi Murug and Badme incidents of July 19, President Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea wrote a letter to his counterpart Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia formally protesting Ethiopia’s actions. He called on the Prime Minister to take all necessary measures to put a stop to Ethiopia’s border incursions.

August 25, 1997: President Isaias Afewerki wrote another letter to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia. This time suggesting that a joint border commission be set-up – the Eritrean side to be led by General Sebhat Efrem, Minister of Defense. The first meeting for this commission was scheduled for November 1997.

October 17, 1997: Weyin, the official organ of the TPLF, printed a new map of Tigray Region, which for the first time in almost a hundred years, altered Eritrea’s colonial borders with Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Mapping authority also officially printed this “illegal” map of the Tigray Region. Here, the straight line linking the Setit (Tekezze) River to the Mereb River at its confluence with the Mai Anbessa had disappeared and was replaced by an oblique line entering deep into Eritrean territory.

November 1997: A joint High Commission on Demarcation met in Asmara and agreed to meet again within three months. There was no discussion on substantive matters.

January 1998: Ethiopia tried by military means to occupy sovereign Eritrean territory on the Bure area (Assab-Dessie road). Unfortunately, Eritrean efforts to solve the problem amicably and bilaterally failed as the Government of Ethiopia continued to bring under its occupation the Eritrean territories that it had incorporated into its map.

War Breaks Out

May 6, 1998: Ethiopian troops fired at an Eritrean patrol unit on routine duty along the border around Badme. It triggered a chain of reaction on both sides and several people were killed.

May 13, 1998: The Ethiopian Parliament declared war on Eritrea.

May 14, 1998: The Eritrean Government called for peace and invited neutral parties to examine the circumstances leading to the incident on May 6.

May 14, 1998: The Cabinet of Ministers of the Government of Eritrea proposed a five-point peace plan.

• The Government of Eritrea condemns the logic of force as it firmly knows and upholds that border disputes of any kind can only be resolved through peaceful and legal means, and not through military means.
• On the basis of this principle, each party shall publicly announce to the peoples of Eritrea, Ethiopia and the international community the territories that it claims – if any – and designate them on the political map with clear geographical coordinates. Each party shall also accept that the dispute can not, and should not, be resolved by force, but through peaceful negotiations.
• Both parties shall agree that all negotiations and understandings shall be carried out in the presence and through the mediation of a Third Party. The latter will act as a witness and guarantor.
• Areas under “dispute” shall be demilitarized temporarily and be free from the presence of armies of both countries. The enforcement of this understanding shall be guaranteed by the Third Party.
• If the above proposal for resolving the dispute through the involvement of a Third Party and without complications is not acceptable, the matter is to be referred to an international adjudication.

May 15, 1998: The Government of Eritrea expressed its readiness to accept an independent inspection by any third party to verify the facts of the matter on the ground.

May 30-31, 1998: US-Rwanda Peace Plan presented to Eritrea and Ethiopia. The Governments of the United States and Rwanda, in an attempt to facilitate a peaceful resolution of the border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia, presented both parties a four-point peace plan.

June 1, 1998: While the US-Rwanda Peace Plan was under discussion, Ethiopia launched an attack on Eritrea along the Ambesete-Gleba area.

June 3, 1998: The State Department issued the following statement: “the United States and Rwanda regret that these recommendations have not yet been accepted by both sides as the basis for a peaceful resolution of this dispute.”

June 4-5, 1998: Ethiopia, while announcing acceptance of the US-Rwanda Peace Plan went ahead and bombed the Eritrean capital, Asmara. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, while announcing his government’s “acceptance” of the US-Rwanda plan, ordered his troops to attack Eritrea.

June 5, 1998: (morning): The Eritrean Government issued the following statement: “The four-point recommendations that have evolved in the facilitation process address the paramount issues that the Government of Eritrea has been raising and are, therefore, not controversial at all to the Government of Eritrea. At the same time, the Government of Eritrea believes that the facilitation process has not been consummated and that there are still serious issues of detail and implementation that need to be worked out in the period ahead.” Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, June 5, 1998.

June 5, 1998: At 14:00 and 14:30 hours, local time, Ethiopian fighter planes launched an air strike on Asmara. They hit Asmara International Airport, killing and wounding 30 people, and damaging a Zambian cargo plane parked on the runway. About an hour later, an Eritrean plane retaliated by hitting military targets in Makelle, Ethiopia – destroying several Ethiopian fighter planes. Inadvertently, it also hit an elementary school near the airport killing and wounding 47 people. The Eritrean Government apologized for the incident.

June 6, 1998: At 09:40 hours local time, two Ethiopian fighter planes bombed the southern outskirts of Asmara; because of Ethiopia’s imposition of indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets, most foreigners living in Asmara were evacuated. An Ethiopian fighter jet (a MiG 23) was shot down by Eritrea’s Air Defense Units. Ethiopia further imposed an air blockade and maritime access blockade to Eritrean ports through the threat of incessant and indiscriminate air bombing.

June 10, 1998: In violation of the agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia that citizens of each country do not need visas to visit the other country, Ethiopia instructed all carriers not to board Eritreans who do not have a valid visa to Ethiopia.

June 11, 1998: Eritrea called on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to take urgent measures to ensure the safety of international air and maritime navigation in the area.

June 12, 1998: Ethiopia announced that it was expelling an unspecified number of civilian Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin in the country for “security reasons”

June 12, 1998: Eritrean Air Force pilots bombed military targets in Adi Grat.

June 13, 1998: The Government of Ethiopia ordered the deportation of thousands of Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin from the country; it also fired thousands of others from their jobs.

June 14, 1998: The Governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia accepted the proposal put forward by the United States Government on a total ban of air strikes by both sides.

June 17, 1998: Ethiopia begins large-scale deportations. About 800 Eritrean residents of Ethiopia arrived at the Eritrean border town of Um Hajer in the southwestern tip of the country.

June 25, 1998: The Government of Ethiopia ordered the families of the deported to mortgage their businesses and property and leave the country within one month. By this time, the number of deportees was about 1150, most of them were prominent businessmen and professionals.

June 26, 1998: The Security Council unanimously passed a resolution that condemned “the use of force” and demanded, “both parties immediately cease hostilities and refrain from further use of force.”

June 10, 1998: OAU calls for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The Organization of African Unity (OAU) at its 34th Summit in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, called for a peaceful solution to the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict.

July 1, 1998: UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) Mrs. Mary Robinson expressed her serious concern over Ethiopian expulsions of Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin from Ethiopia.

July 1, 1998: Ambassadors from Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Rwanda and Zambia held talks with Eritrean officials as part of an initiative by the OAU, following the failed US-Rwanda Plan.

July 9, 1998: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, in an interview with Ethiopian television and in reaction to Mary Robinson’s statement about Ethiopia’s human rights violations, boasts that his government “has the unrestricted right to expel any foreigner from the country for any reason whatsoever…Any foreigner, whether Eritrean or Japanese lives in Ethiopia because of the good will of the Ethiopian government. If the Ethiopian government says “Go because we don’t like the color of your eyes, they have to leave.”

July 11, 1998: Following Meles’ speech that Ethiopia can deport even for not liking someone’s color of eyes, by Ethiopian admission, more than 2400 Eritreans were rounded up, 1000 in Addis Ababa alone. They were deported the next day.

Aug 1-2, 1998: The Organization of African Unity Ministerial Committee met for two days of talks in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Its main aim was to resolve the border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

August 6, 1998: The US Department of State issued a statement condemning the detention and expulsion of Eritreans from Ethiopia and called on the Ethiopian Government to respect international human rights norms and standards.

August 6-12, 1998: About three thousand Eritreans expelled from Ethiopia arrive in Eritrea. Some of them came through the border town of Zalambessa. The number of Eritrean deportees from Ethiopia reaches over 16,000.

August 13, 1998: Ethiopia gave Eritreans working for international organizations and embassies in Addis Ababa one month to leave the country. The Ethiopian government also admitted that it had served notice to some 87 Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin working in embassies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations to leave the country.

September 16, 1998: The US Government communicated to Eritrea its desire to launch a new initiative. This new initiative was to be led by Mr. Anthony Lake, the former National Security Advisor (1993-1997) under President Bill Clinton. Mr. Anthony Lake becomes President Clinton’s Special Envoy to Eritrea and Ethiopia.

October 6, 1998: U.S. Special Envoy Anthony Lake arrives in Eritrea to make a second attempt at finding a peaceful solution to the five-month border conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The first attempt was the US-Rwanda plan drafted by President Clinton’s Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Susan Rice. The US-Rwanda plan was terminated on June 4, 1998.

October 29, 1998: Ethiopia shelled southwestern Eritrea (Badme area). Several villages were destroyed, more than a hundred crop fields burned, and a farmer and a child instantly killed. On the same day in the Senafe area, barrages of Ethiopian shelling similarly destroyed villages, burned crop fields and killed three peasants.

November 2, 1998: The United Nations “vigorously” protested Ethiopia’s decision to expel some 30 U.N. staffers working for various U.N. agencies around Addis Ababa as “persona non grata.”

November 7-8, 1998: The Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Summit was held in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. At this time the OAU presented a Framework of Agreement that had 11-points. The OAU document was identical to the US-Rwanda plan. Except that the latter four points instead of eleven.

November 11, 1998: Ethiopia formally announced that it had “accepted” the OAU proposal.

November 19, 1998: The UN Security Council passes a resolution unanimously urging nations to restrict arms sales to African countries embroiled in a conflict.

December 6, 1998: U.S. Special Envoy Anthony Lake arrives in Asmara – his third visit to Eritrea.

December 12, 1998: Eritrea submitted a list of questions on the OAU’s Framework for Agreement seeking clarifications.

December 17, 1998: Three people were killed and at least 24 wounded when Ethiopia shelled the Eritrean town of Tsorona.

December 17, 1998: The OAU’s Central Organ for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution began its meeting Ouagadougou. About 20 Heads of State and Government attended the meeting. The meeting endorsed the High-Level Delegation’s 11-point proposal for solving the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict.

December 18, 1998: Ethiopia formally announced that it has accepted the Proposal for a Framework Agreement as endorsed by the Central Organ of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in Ouagadougou.

January 3, 1999: One thousand three hundred sixty seven (1367) Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin expelled from various towns in Ethiopia arrive in Assab. By this date, over 47,000 Eritreans had been deported from Ethiopia.

January 18, 1999: Anthony Lake, President Bill Clinton’s former National Security Advisor, once again shuttled between Addis Ababa and Asmara and held a fourth round of talks with Eritrean officials. His first round was in October 1998.

January 20, 1999: The US State Department warned US citizens against travel to Eritrea. It gave the excuse “given the continuing tensions and the possibility for renewed tensions.”

January 26, 1999: The OAU gave a reply to the 26 questions Eritrea raised on the framework agreement on December 12, 1998. The OAU took forty five (45) days to reply.

January 29, 1999: The UN Security Council voted unanimously to support efforts made by the OAU to end the border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

January 29, 1999: Amnesty International released a document on Ethiopia’s gross human rights violations of Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin.

February 5, 1999: The Ethiopian government alleged Eritrean fighter planes bombed the town of Adigrat, Ethiopia. The allegation was proved to be false by independent journalists and foreign governments.

February 6, 1999: Ethiopia breaks the US-brokered air moratorium and bombs Eritrean towns and villages. Ethiopia launched a massive offensive on the Badme Front on February 6, 1999 and February 8, 1999 on the Tsorena Front.

February 6, 1999: The Ethiopian Government launched a large-scale attack against Eritrea on the Mereb-Setit Front.

February 7, 1999: The Ethiopian Government shelled the town of Adi Quala killing eight and wounding 23 civilians.

February 8, 1999: Blaise Compaore, President of Burkina Faso and OAU Chairman for 1998-1999, called on Eritrea and Ethiopia to put an end to their fighting “immediately and without conditions.”

February 9, 1999: The Ethiopian Government declared Eritrea’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, Girma Asmerom, “persona non grata” and asked him to leave Ethiopia immediately.

February 10, 1999: The UN Security Council passed a US-drafted resolution that demanded an immediate halt to the fighting and strongly urged all states to end immediately all sales of arms and munitions to Ethiopia and Eritrea.

February 12, 1999: Ethiopian authorities ordered troops who had surrounded the Eritrean Ambassador’s residence in Addis Ababa to break into his residence. Their actions violated Article 22 of the Vienna Convention which guarantees the inviolability and immunity of premises and property of diplomats and diplomatic missions.

February 14-15, 1999: Ethiopia started an offensive along the Burie Front. Eritrean defense forces shot down one MI-24 helicopter gunship.

February 16, 1999: Three Ethiopian fighter planes dropped bombs on a water reservoir near Assab.

February 17, 1999: Ethiopia attempted for the third time to attack water reservoir that it missed twice. This time its Antonov planes dropped six bombs in the area of the reservoir.

February 17, 1999: The OAU High-Level Delegation urged both Eritrea and Ethiopia to put an immediate end to the fighting and to re-commit themselves to a peaceful resolution of the dispute based on the OAU proposals for a framework agreement.

February 21, 1999: Ethiopia’s Antonov bombers targeted the airstrip in Assab dropping 12 bombs. All of the bombs missed their target. On the same day, Ethiopian Antonovs bombed the village of Mai Aini near Tsorena. They destroyed homes and property in the village killing four (4) civilians and leaving several others wounded.

February 22, 1999: The U.S. Department of State released a statement of regret of use of air strikes by Ethiopia.

February 23, 1999: Ethiopia launched yet another offensive on the Mereb-Setit (Badme) Front.

February 24, 1999: Intense fighting continued on the Mereb-Setit Front. Ethiopian forces backed by heavy artillery, mechanized units and aircraft attempted, for a second day, to dislodge Eritrean forces from their positions.

February 26, 1999: Eritrea announced to the world that Ethiopia had broken through its defense lines at one point on the Badme Front. Since this made Eritrea’s fixed defense lines vulnerable Eritrean armed forces withdrew and re-established a new frontline.

February 27, 1999: Eritrea informed the UN Security Council that it has accepted the OAU peace plan and was ready to implement it. The plan was submitted on November 8. The UN Security Council welcomed Eritrea’s decision to accept the OAU peace plan previously agreed to by Ethiopia.

February 28, 1999: Ethiopia launched a fresh offensive in the Badme area.

July 14, 1999: Eritrea accepted the Modalities for the Implementation of the OAU Framework Agreement that was endorsed and tabled by the 35th Regular Session of the OAU Heads of States and Governments in Algiers.

July 21, 1999: Ethiopia accepts the Modalities for the Implementation of the OAU Framework Agreement.

August 5-6, 1999: The OAU presented the Technical Arrangements for the Implementation of the peace plan to Eritrea and Ethiopia on August 5 and August 6 respectively. At that time, Ethiopia requested that the Technical Arrangements be non-amendable and was written accordingly. Both countries were expected to send formal replies to President Abdulaziz Bouteflika of Algeria, the OAU Chairman.

August 7, 1999: Eritrea officially accepts the Technical Arrangements in its entirety, and commits to its full implementation. The document calls for a cease-fire, a withdrawal of troops to positions held prior to May 6, 1998, and the demarcation of the border.

August 11, 1999: Ethiopia seeks clarification on the OAU’s “unamendable” Technical Arrangements.

August 23, 1999: OAU provides clarifications to Ethiopia.

December 6, 1999: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi officially rejected the Technical Arrangements.

February 22-March 8, 2000: The United States Special Envoy, Anthony Lake, and Personal Representative of the OAU Chairman, Ahmed Ouayahia, shuttled between Asmara and Addis Ababa to get an agreement on a new document referred to as the “non-paper,” a replacement for the Technical Arrangements document.

April 1, 2000: Ethiopia rejected Eritrea’s offer to let the Port of Assab be used for shipments of food aid to avert the looming famine threatening millions of Ethiopians.

April 29-May 3, 2000: Eritrea and Ethiopia held proximity talks in Algiers. But the proximity talks failed because Ethiopia refused to sign the two substantive documents of the OAU Peace Plan: The Framework Agreement and the Modalities of Implementation. Ethiopia also rejected a cease-fire agreement, which was the first and key provision of the OAU Peace Plan.

May 8-9, 2000: The United Nations Security Council sent seven of its ambassadors to Ethiopia and Eritrea as a “last-ditch attempt” to avert war. But the delegation’s effort bear no fruit because Ethiopia told the delegation that it had invested heavily on the war and wanted a quick return on it.

May 12, 2000: Ethiopia launched a massive offensive against Eritrea.

May 24, 2000: The OAU tabled a peace plan in order to bring about an immediate end to hostilities. Eritrea stated its readiness to respond immediately and favorably to the OAU plan and agreed to withdraw to pre-May 1998 positions. Ethiopia for its part responded by saying, “We shall negotiate while we fight and fight while we negotiate.”

May 25, 2000: Eritrea completed withdrawing to pre May 1998 positions. However, President Bouteflika of Algeria informed Eritrea that the Ethiopian government was asking that Eritrea redeploy form additional places referred to as Bada and Burie. Bada and Burie were territories where there was no Ethiopian presence to May 6, 1998. Eritrea nonetheless formally informed the OAU Chairman that it commits itself to re-deploy its troops from Bada and Burie in order to deny Ethiopia any pretext.

May 26, 2000: Taking advantage of Eritrea’s withdrawal and rearrangement of its defense forces, Ethiopia proceeded to occupy Senafe and Tserona, areas that were not under dispute.

May 28, 2000: Ethiopian aircraft bombed the new power plant at Hirgigo in the Northern Red Sea region of Eritrea causing serious damage to the project. The power plant, which was near completion, was financed under a loan agreement with a consortium of international financiers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Italy, OPEC and BADEA.

May 29, 2000: Ethiopia’s fighter planes bombed Asmara International Airport. The bombing sparked a grass fire at the airport and sent clouds of dirt flying over Airport Road. The attack came hours after delegations from Ethiopia and Eritrea flew to Algiers for a new round of talks.

May 30, 2000: Ethiopia-Eritrea peace talks opened in Algiers.

May 31, 2000: Ethiopia spurning UN appeal rejected calls to cease hostilities, saying it “will not abandon its campaign until it has met all of its military objectives.”

June 1, 2000: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia declares the two-year border war has ended.

June 2, 2000: A day after it declared the war is over, Ethiopia carried a bombing raid near Assab.

June 3, 2000: Deploying two divisions, Ethiopia opened a fresh ground attack to take the Port of Assab. The fighting was underway deep inside Eritrean territory forty kilometers from the port along a line to where Eritrean forces had withdrawn at the request of peace mediators. By the end of the day, Eritrea announced that it had foiled the Ethiopian attack, decimating Ethiopia’s 38th division and killing, wounding or capturing 3,755 Ethiopian troops.

June 4, 2000: Meles said that they “have proposed at the Algiers talks that the government in Asmara sign an agreement that it would not again start war with Ethiopia and that the highland areas (inside Eritrea) controlled by our defence forces be placed under international peace-keeping force when Ethiopian forces are evacuated.”

June 8, 2000: Ethiopia launched another attack on the Assab Front. The attack involved three divisions or more than 20,000 troops.

June 9, 2000: The OAU presented its Proposal on Cessation of Hostilities and asked the two parties to reply within 24 hours. Eritrea accepted the proposal within the 24-hour deadline.

June 10, 2000: Ethiopia announced that it had opened another attack on all fronts: Guluj on the west, the Assab Front, and the Senafe area. Meanwhile, OAU’s deadline for reply to its proposal passed without Ethiopia’s reply and the OAU had to extend the deadline by another week to accommodate Ethiopia. In a statement he released, Ahmed Ouyahia said,”We gave the two parties a one-week deadline to attend a ceremony to sign the cessation of hostilities in Algiers.”

June 12, 2000: Eritrea announced that it had foiled the large-scale offensive on the Assab Front. Eritrea also announced that its defense forces had dislodged the Ethiopians from strategic and commanding heights on the Senafe Front after a daylong battle.

June 14, 2000: Ethiopia said it accepted the OAU proposal for the cessation of hostilities.

June 18, 2000: Eritrea and Ethiopia sign the OAU’s Cessation of Hostilities proposal. The proposal calls for the deployment of UN peacekeeping mission under the auspices of the OAU along a 25 km temporary security zone inside Eritrea and withdrawal of Ethiopian forces to their pre-May 1998 positions.

June 30, 2000: The Security Council, by its Resolution 1312 (2000) established the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) consisting of up to 100 military observers and the necessary civilian support staff in anticipation of a peacekeeping operation subject to future authorization.

September 15, 2000: The UN Security Council by Resolution 1320 (2000) authorized the deployment within UNMEE of up to 4,3000 troops.

December 12, 2000: A Comprehensive Peace Agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea was signed. The Peace Plan called on the parties to “permanently terminate military hostilities between them” and to refrain from the threat of use of force against each other. The Agreement, among other things, required the establishment of a neutral Boundary Commission to “delimit and demarcate the colonial treaty border” and a neutral Claims Commission which would decide on claims from either side and calls for an independent investigation into the origins of the conflict.

The post Chronology of Events Leading up to 1998-2000 Eritrea-Ethiopia War appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY BRONWYN BRUTON | THE NEW YORK TIMES

Early this month, the Ethiopian government declared that it was finally ready to implement a peace deal it signed with Eritrea nearly two decades ago. The Eritrean government didn’t respond to the announcement for over two weeks — until Wednesday when President Isaias Afwerki said that “the positive direction that has been set in motion is crystal clear.”

Mr. Isaias also promised to send a delegation to Ethiopia “to gauge current developments directly and in depth.”

For many years, however, even as Ethiopia declared its willingness to implement a 2002 judgment about the two states’ border, it refused to withdraw its troops from Eritrean territory until other issues — about armed groups, trade, access to Eritrea’s ports on the Red Sea — were settled. But Eritrea refused to negotiate at gunpoint, especially over a boundary decision that both governments had committed to upholding whatever its outcome.

So why the surprise breakthrough now?

Analysts have pointed to two factors: the advent of Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, who in just a few months has embarked on a series of ambitious domestic reforms, and a recent trip to Eritrea by Donald Yamamoto, the acting head of the State Department’s Africa bureau, a rare visit for a senior American diplomat. A changing of the guard in both countries appears to explain this watershed moment.

Except that it doesn’t. Ethiopia’s policy toward Eritrea was shifting well before Mr. Abiy came to power, largely as a result of fundamental domestic factors. And America’s policy in the Horn of Africa hardly has changed: It is as misguided as ever, with its overriding focus on counterterrorism. What’s more, the United States has far less sway over Ethiopia than it would like or than is often assumed.

In the years that followed the 2002 boundary decision, Ethiopia became a regional powerhouse and a major security partner of the West, and it played on that influence to isolate Eritrea, seemingly in the hope of destabilizing the country until it collapsed. The Eritrean government only made matters worse by shelving its Constitution, arresting dissidents and supporting armed rebels throughout the Horn of Africa — policies that alienated its neighbors and Western powers alike.

But over time, containing Eritrea became less and less tenable as a strategy for the Ethiopian government.

For one thing, Eritrea has emerged from its near-total isolation in recent years. In particular, in 2015 it began developing new alliances with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both eager to use its territory as a base for operations in Yemen, for example. Ethiopia nonetheless tried to marginalize Eritrea, supporting efforts in 2016 to mount a case against the Isaias government for crimes against humanity. When that failed, it attacked the border — again in hopes of precipitating an internal crisis in Eritrea. But that, too, failed.
More important, the costs of isolating Eritrea became too onerous for Ethiopia as it struggled to contain mounting unrest at home.

Ethiopia has more than 80 different ethnicities, but the Tigrayan minority, which makes up only about 6 percent of the total population, holds the reins of the country’s wealth and political power, notably through the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (T.P.L.F.), long the country’s dominant party. Ethiopia’s Somali population in the southeastern region of Ogaden has been fighting the central government since the early 1990s. And since 2015, the Oromo, the country’s largest ethnic group, has staged protests in more than 200 towns in the vast central region of Oromia, demanding wholesale political reform.

But it was when tens of thousands of Amhara joined Oromo protesters in August 2016 that the scales finally tipped. Facing escalating unrest from so many sides, the government declared a state of emergency that October. Ethiopia seemed to be coming apart at the seams.

The military already was stretched thin, with thousands of troops tied up in peacekeeping operations in Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan. As the need to deploy soldiers across the country to quell popular unrest grew, the Ethiopian government could no longer afford to keep tens of thousands of forces stationed on the border with Eritrea. In April 2017, Hailemariam Desalegn, then the prime minister, announced a “new policy direction regarding Eritrea” centered on “creating a sustainable peace.”

Mr. Abiy’s recent peace declaration doesn’t cover any new ground, and it is as vague as Mr. Hailemariam’s policy was.

Nor is Mr. Abiy’s announcement the result of some dramatic diplomatic push from the United States. For years now, Washington’s policy in the region has been dominated by security concerns, and human rights and the Eritrea issue, among other things, have fallen by the wayside. In any event, Ethiopia always has had the upper hand in the relationship.

It’s easy for the government to withhold intelligence from the United States, sit out a counterterrorism operation in Somalia or commit fewer troops to a peacekeeping mission. American support to Ethiopia, on the other hand, is nearly inflexible. America’s military assistance is delivered by way of formal commitments to the African Union’s peacekeeping missions; most of its humanitarian aid comes in packages approved by Congress. And Washington doesn’t have any good long-term alternatives to its security partnership with Ethiopia.

In other words, any progress on the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute these days is happening in spite of American policy in the region, not thanks to it.

And what kind of progress is Ethiopia’s recent declaration anyway? If the T.P.L.F. can spoil Mr. Abiy’s efforts, the government may be forced to backtrack.

Mr. Hailemariam resigned as prime minister in February after protesters started blocking the roads into Addis Ababa. The T.P.L.F. feared that it might lose its grip on power, which already was slipping if fuel and food shortages and then unrest spread to the capital. To stop the protests’ advance, the government forced out Mr. Hailemariam and released several thousand political prisoners.

But those moves only gave the Oromo protesters a real taste of their strength. Crowds flooded the streets again to celebrate the prisoners’ release, and with that, the T.P.L.F. lost its absolute say over the nomination process for the next prime minister.

The party didn’t care for Mr. Abiy, an Oromo, but its leaders were divided between endorsing a party lackey or a hard-liner. On the other hand, the T.P.L.F. couldn’t possibly get behind the firebrand reformer favored by Oromo leaders. In the end, Mr. Abiy seemed like the least-bad option, an all-around compromise candidate.

That weak endorsement leaves Mr. Abiy in a vulnerable position today. He seems to be rushing to pass radical, popular reforms in the hope of both calming protesters and broadening his base. Meanwhile the T.P.L.F. — conveniently forgetting its authorship of the “sustainable peace” policy last year — is protesting Mr. Abiy’s overtures to Eritrea (and other things besides).

Tigrayans living near Eritrea have objected, too, and have held demonstrations. With the T.P.L.F. presumably still in control of Ethiopia’s army, it’s also unclear if the officers stationed on the Eritrean border, many of whom are Tigrayan, would obey a government order to withdraw. Serious negotiations with Eritrea will be a heavy lift for Mr. Abiy.

But he may have support from an unexpected corner: the Eritrean government. Mr. Isaias’ advisers have told me that at this stage ensuring stability in Ethiopia is more important to them than rushing to finally end the old stalemate over the border.

Eritrea may be the least of Mr. Abiy’s problems. Now that he has made an overture, peace between the two countries might be best served by being delayed.

Bronwyn Bruton is deputy director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, in Washington, and director of the center’s Eritrea Working Group.

The post Eritrea – Ethiopia: A Peace Best Delayed appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY TESFANEWS

An explosion disrupted a huge pro PM Abiy Ahmed rally on Saturday shortly after his speech and waving to the crowd that had turned out in numbers never seen before in the capital’s Meskel Square.

In a televised address shortly after escaping what Addis Abeba Deputy Police commissioner Girma Kassa described it as an “apparent assassination attempt” at a rally organized to support his reform agenda, PM Abiy said, “such small incidents will not deter us from the journey of renewal. We will unite and overcome this failed and defeated idea.”

PM Abiy sent his condolences and appealed for calm and unity to defeat spoilers.

“Love will win. Forgiveness will win. Killing is a sign of defeat. They failed yesterday. They failed today. They will fail tomorrow,” he said to suggest that there’s indeed a loss of life.

An Associated Press reporter has seen more than a dozen injured people. Footage showed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed being rushed from the scene by security guards.

Jawar Mohammed, an activist and executive director of the Oromo Media Network (OMN) confirmed that four people have died and scores injured.

The Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Office, Fitsum Arega, tweets shortly after the incident to say:

“We will overcome hate with love. Some whose heart is filled with hate attempted a grenade attack. HE PM Abiy is safe. All the casualties are martyrs of love & peace. HE PM sends his condolences to the victims. The perpetrators will be brought to justice.”

Abiy was chanting in front of the tens of thousands of his supporters before the explosion that change is coming after years of anti-government tensions and there is no turning back.

“For the past 100 years hate has done a great deal of damage to us,” he said, stressing the need for even more reforms.

The state broadcaster quickly terminates the coverage after the incident.

Mr. Abiy took office in April and quickly start implementing reforms by announcing the release of tens of thousands of prisoners, the opening of state-owned companies to private investment and the unconditional embrace of a peace deal with rival Eritrea.

Not everyone has cheered the reforms.

Some Ethiopians near the border with Eritrea have protested the embrace of the peace deal. And the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, a party in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition that has been the dominant force in government for most of the past 27 years, said the announcement on the peace deal had been made before the ruling coalition’s Congress met to discuss it: “We see this as a flaw.”

In his reciprocal speech, Eritrea’s president warns those who dumbfounded by the ongoing reforms in Ethiopia will not refrain from obstructing the positive change just to prolong their dwindling power.

“The TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) clique and other scavengers are dumbfounded by the ongoing changes. And, as they know full well that their game has come to an end, they will not refrain from concocting various machinations to obstruct any change and to mollify their wayward appetite.”

Eritrea’s Ambassador to Japan quickly denounces the attack through his Twitter handle. 

“Eritrea strongly condemns the attempt to incite violence, in today’s Addis Ababa demonstration for peace, 1st of its kind in the history of Ethiopia.”

The post Deadly Explosion Disrupt #March4Abiy Rally appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY SERAWR.COM

It has only been a few days since the Peoples of Eritrea and Ethiopia have been celebrating the beginning of the turning of black clouds of death and conflict into the light of peace and harmony. However, the deadly grenade attack in Ethiopia’s capital on Saturday has manifested there are still desperate elements who are determined to bring back chaos and bloodshed.

The Eritrean people, both at home and abroad, have expressed their great sense of shock and sympathy to the Ethiopian people for their hurt and lose. Eritrea condemned the attack.

The Eritrean Ambassador to Japan Mr. Estifanos said, “Eritrea strongly condemns the attempt to incite violence, in today’s AA demonstration for peace, 1st of its kind in the history of Ethiopia.”

The incident underlines there are elements who are having a problem to come to terms with the new reality. Instead of licking their own wounds and move on, they are wounding others with the intention of replacing the newly founded optimism with chaos and destruction.

The TPLF elite, who claim to be the guardian angels Tigray people’s interest, have made strategic mistakes that have caused much damage to the very people they claim to stand for.

The time for Tigray people to say “Not in Our Name” to the elements, who trade in their name is now!

>> ALSO READ : Tigray People Protests Implementation of Peace Deal With Eritrea

The Tigray people should embrace the positive changes in Ethiopia. They stand to gain the most from peace and cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The Second World War caused the deaths of 60 million people and so much material destruction, but it provided the impetus to the rapid development and peace in the West.

Similarly, the destruction and the opportunities lost over the last half a century, as President Isaias Afwerki said, could be the beginning of a journey of peace and eradication of poverty through cooperation between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

There have been different reports on casualties of the explosion, but it has been established that the target of the attack was Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed. The prime minister made it clear that the attack was a ‘well-orchestrated attack’. Top police officials have already been arrested for questioning.

The incident is a great reminder for the Ethiopian people, the government, and partners that much work still remains and challenges need to be overcome.

Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Service are one of the institutions that have been under the complete control of the TPLF. Although the head of the agency has been replaced, a structural change is urgently needed.

As millions of Ethiopians across the country have been expressing in a strong term that there is no turning back to the ugly days and that is really Game Over.

The post Time for Tigray People to Say “Not in Our Name” appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY TESFANEWS

Spokesperson of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, Meles Alem, announced that the first Eritrean delegation is expected to arrive in Addis Ababa this week [Tuesday] for the first time in two decades after surprising gestures by both sides aimed at ending one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts.

The foreign ministry, however, gives no details on the expected visit.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in April, made a surprising pledge this month to honour all the terms of the peace deal that ended the conflict with Eritrea.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki raised hopes of a breakthrough last week by describing the unconditional pledge by PM Abiy to honour the boundary commission’s rulings as “positive signals”.

To strengthen PM Abiy’s hand in the peace overtures, President Isaias announced he would send a delegation to “gauge current developments directly and in-depth” and plan future steps.

There are growing concerns of a political backlash against PM Abiy following his sweeping reform plans and peace overture to Eritrea from within the ranks of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

The Eritrean president was particularly concerned of the coalition member Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that stands to lose from the ongoing reforms and a peace deal with Eritrea.

The group issued a statement last week denouncing PM Abiy for accepting the peace deal unconditionally.

“The TPLF clique and other vultures are dumbfounded by the ongoing changes. And, as they know full well that their game has come to an end, they will not refrain from concocting various machinations to obstruct any change and to mollify their wayward appetite.

One of the worn-out tricks that they will try to wield to prolong their dwindling power and to impede positive change is to work for the perpetuation of tension with Eritrea,” said President Isaias during his martyrs day speech.

On Saturday, at a huge rally in Addis Ababa, an explosion that may have been intended to kill PM Abiy left two dead and 156 people injured, five of them critically.

Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a bloody border war in 1998-2000 that killed more than 20,000 Eritreans and more than 100,000 Ethiopian soldiers.

The post Ethiopia: Eritrean Delegation Expected Tomorrow appeared first on TesfaNews.

High-level Eritrean delegation arrives in Ethiopia for talks on ending the decades-old conflict between the two countries.

BY HAMZA MOHAMED | AL JAZEERA

A high-level Eritrean delegation led by foreign minister Osman Saleh arrived in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa for talks on ending the decades-long conflict between the two countries.

The delegation – which was received by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Tuesday – also included Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s right-hand man Yemane Gebreab.

It is the first time in more than two decades that a top-level delegation from Asmara visits Ethiopia.

The visit comes a week after President Afwerki said the East African country would dispatch a delegation to Addis Ababa to “gauge current development” in the region.

“We will send a delegation [ to Addis Ababa] to gauge current developments directly and in depth as well as to chart out a plan for continuous future action,” he said.

Committed to reconcile

Earlier this month, Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said Addis Ababa would fully accept and implement the terms of a peace agreement between the countries.

“We are fully committed to reconcile with our Eritrean brothers and sisters and extend an invitation to the Eritrean government to start a dialogue and establish rapport,” Abiy told parliament earlier this month.

The UN-backed agreement, which was signed in 2000, awarded disputed territories, including the town of Badme, to Asmara.

The two countries fought a bloody border war in 1998 that left more than 80,000 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Eritrea, which comprised of Ethiopia’s only access to the sea, broke off from its larger neighbour in 1993 leaving Addis Ababa landlocked.

Abebe Aynete, an Addis Abab-based analyst, said the visit could mark the end of the political deadlock between the East African countries.

“This visit is very significant and when the agreement is fully implemented it will mean the people of the two countries can finally have friendly relations. It will also improve the security of the region. The proxy wars between the two countries will also end,” Abebe told Al Jazeera.

“The outcome will be felt not just in the disputed territories but across East Africa. The implementation of the agreement might also lead to political reforms in Eritrea,” he added.

For the first time since the start of the conflict, the Eritrean flag hung side-by-side with Ethiopia’s on the streets in downtown Addis Ababa on Tuesday.

Many in the Ethiopian capital welcomed the arrival of the delegation and the recent thawing of tensions between the two neighbours.

Broken family ties

The conflict not only displaced thousands but also broke up many families.

Sipping an espresso in a coffee shop in downtown Addis Ababa, local journalist Yonas Abraham said the peace talks have been long overdue.

The conflict turned his world upside down in ways he never imagined.

“I’m Ethiopian. My family is Eritrean, so when the war started they were deported. I remained in Addis Ababa,” Yonas told Al Jazeera.

“I missed my fathers funeral because I could not go to Eritrea. I have not seen my family for 20 years,” the 40-year-old said, with his brother, the only family member he has left in Ethiopia, sitting beside him.

Abraham was not deported because he worked for a government-affiliated media outlet in Addis Ababa.

His brother, Bereket, who is also a journalist, was deported to Eritrea along with the rest of family but sneaked back into Ethiopia and sought refuge.

“There are no words to describe what happened to our family. We suffered greatly. We lost everything,” he said.

The brothers say they cannot wait for the two countries to normalize their relations.

“As soon as the door opens, we will both go to Eritrea to reunite with our family. We miss them a lot,” Yonas, the elder of the two brothers said.

The post Eritrean Delegation Arrived in Ethiopia appeared first on TesfaNews.

“Great Statesmen in Eritrea and Ethiopia have summoned the courage and vision to blaze the trail and build the pillars for enduring regional peace anchored on law and justice” – Eritrean Gov’t Spokesperson.

BY TESFANEWS

The visiting high-level Eritrean delegation is winding up its highly successful visit in Ethiopia that helped to pave the road to end the two-decade-old conflict between the two countries.

Speaking to local media, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu announced that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki will soon meet [most probably in Asmara] for the next high-level discussion.

At a farewell reception held at the State Palace to the Eritrean senior delegation, Prime Minister Abiy gave FM Osman a letter and gift [a bag of gourmet coffee] to deliver to President Isaias Afwerki.

The Eritrean delegation is expected to return back to Asmara tonight.

It was the first time in more than two decades that a top-level delegation from Asmara visiting Ethiopia.

After three days of bilateral talks in Ethiopia, the Eritrean delegation is returning home filled with hopes and determination for peace from the Ethiopian side.

Chief of Staff for Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Office, Fitsum Arega described his government’s feeling in one single tweet:

“June 26 will be remembered as the day Eritrea and Ethiopia refused to remain trapped in the past and decide to move forward. A day the two nations decide to overcome two decades of mistrust and proceed with courage in a new direction. Now getting closer to a safer and more hopeful region!”

Many pundits and self-appointed “experts”, however, are having a hard time to figure out the outcome of the meeting as the talks involve no Western third party.

Speaking to the German broadcasting DW, the self-proclaimed Eritrea expert Michael Wrong admits “experts” like her are left to play guessing on the ongoing bilateral talks between the Eritrean delegation and the Ethiopian government by saying this:

“We don’t know what they are going to be negotiating. We don’t know what their agenda is. At the moment, outsiders like me don’t have a sense of what is on the table and what the agenda is, but the mere fact that this delegation is turning up in Addis Ababa is incredibly important and definitely takes the relationship between these two countries in a positive direction.”

The Eritrean government spokesperson and Minister of Information, Yemane G/Meskel suggests, as in the case of TPLF, perhaps it is time to say “Game Over” to these clueless pundits as well.

“At the other opposite end, clueless “pundits and experts” continue to wallow on half-baked and presumptuous “analysis” of the unfolding events; on sterile “predictions” of how they will ultimately pan out.

The flawed narratives they have peddled for so long is clearly in tatters today. It is indeed time for them to discard their condescending approaches and defer to the wisdom, foresight, and aspirations of the local actors.”

The door for peace seems wide open now. But the ongoing political instability and open hostility from within the EPRDF coalition, particularly by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), casts doubts that the road ahead towards peace and normalization of relations may not be as smooth as it looks from the surface.

The post Eritrea and Ethiopia Leaders to Meet Face-to-Face appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY BEREKET KIDANE

An American proverb says, “Good fences make good neighbors.”  The same thing can be said about demarcated borders. Demarcated borders make for good neighbors.

Eritrea must demarcate its border with Ethiopia not to separate itself from its neighbor but to prevent future territorial disputes.

The highly destructive 1998-2000 Ethio-Eritrean border war has left both countries deeply scarred. The memories are still raw and painful.  It will take time to heal the wounds left by the legacy of that war.

Regardless, Eritreans and Ethiopians are happy to leave the legacy of the devastating war behind and embark on a new era of cooperation and good neighborliness.

The best way to ensure there are no future border clashes is through demarcated borders.

The benefits of demarcated borders are many and the timing is appropriate.

Firstly, bilateral relations are about to be established between Ethiopia and Eritrea after a long hiatus.  Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has the popularity and ability to take on the full implementation of the Algiers Agreement. United Nation’s cartographic units are ready to assist in that endeavor.  In fact, they have been ready to assist all those years.  The only thing missing was Ethiopia’s commitment.

Secondly, the countries of the Horn and East Africa have talked incessantly about regional cooperation and integration of economies.  To make that happen, Ethiopia as the most populous country in the Horn must bear its responsibility in bringing peace to this sensitive region.

Thirdly, demarcated borders make for good neighbors.  There are known mineral deposits and natural gas reserves along the Ethio-Eritrean border that could lead to future territorial disputes without clearly demarcated borders.

Once the boundary is demarcated, the two countries will have to agree on a maintenance regime for repair or reconstruction of defective columns, pillars, and markers.  Setting up a joint commission that holds regular meetings and reports to the highest authorities in both countries would be preferable so that the two countries can work together and share the maintenance and management of their borders.

The details of the recent talks between the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments have not been revealed yet, but one thing that has been made abundantly clear over the last week is the Ethiopian and Eritrean people’s hunger for peace and the resumption of brotherly relations.

It was encouraging to see Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed go on record committing his country to the full implementation of the Algiers Agreement.

Demarcating the already delimited boundary will achieve the goal of peace, security, and stability for both countries, which will translate into positive economic consequences not just for the two countries but for the region at large.

The post Eritrea Must Insist on Demarcation of its Border appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY ECADFORUM

The narratives of double-digit economic growth of Ethiopia for over a decade was wrong and obtained as a result of “cooked data”, according to a high profile economics professor at the Addis Ababa University.

Ethiopia’s economy has not been growing more than 6% or 7% per year, according to Professor Alemayehu, who proved government’s date wrong with his scientific research.

“In my calculation, there is no such exaggerated [double digit] growth rate. The official figure is problematic and structural change became illusive (share of manufacturing in GDP, exports etc), ” he said, presenting his paper on Tuesday in Addis Ababa at a forum organized by the Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Association.

“Where did that 11% GDP came from? It should be either from capital accumulation, or from labor, or it is coming from efficiency or technology. When we look at the case of Ethiopia the government data says, capital is around 2.2%; labor is also around 2% and around 7% has come from efficiency and technology. But as we all know for the past 3,000 years, we are farming using oxen,” Professor Alemayehu said, making the audience laugh and implicating that the government has been cooking those numbers.

“So that figure has problems. If we look at the efficiency of other countries, OECD countries, their efficiency is around 2.2% when they are growing fast. When the economic growth in East Asia was growing at the fastest rate, the efficiency was around 2.2%.

For instance, in China when it was growing at the fastest rate, the efficiency was around 4%. Before the Ethiopian economy data was manipulated, the research I have done shows that our efficiency was only 1%,” he said.

So when we add up the three [capital, labor, and efficiency] the GDP growth we get is half of what the government has been claiming.

The so-called double-digit economic growth of Ethiopia has manifested itself by its major results – poverty and unemployment, according to the professor. His research shows that some 60% to 70% of the Ethiopian population is currently living below the poverty line while the government data indicates that it is only 23%.

“This also confirms that the growth was not inclusive. When we look at youth unemployment, the government data says it is around 25%. But 40% is underemployment. The government says the informal sector is 20% but it is 40%. In addition, 60% to 70% of employed are working poor [earning less than 1.95 per day] population, according to my calculation,” he said.

The high profile economists in Ethiopia have reflected at the panel that aims to get independent professionals views on the current challenges the economy of Ethiopia is facing and the potential opportunities.

The panelists reflected their views on how to rescue the economy from collapsing by quickly solving the multiple traps the country has fallen into as a result of loan and aid driven economic growth the country has been bragging about for over a decade.

Currently, Ethiopian economy is struggling with foreign currency shortage, widening trade deficit, high unemployment, poverty and inflation, growing inequality, liquidity problem, and corruption.

Professor Alemayehu listed top five socio-economic challenges of the country:

1. Non-Inclusive Growth: Unemployment and Poverty
2. Inequality, and Conflict/Politics
3. Macroeconomic miss management
4. Corruption and Conflict/Politics
5. Education Quality, State Capacity and Lack of Professionalism

When added all together, the challenges will lead to conflicts as seen in many fragile states in Africa, according to professor Alemayehu, who advised the need for exercising professionalism to fix the economy and independence of professionals from politicians influence.

The post Economics Professor Debunked Ethiopia’s “Double-digit Economic Growth” Tale appeared first on TesfaNews.

BY ORION ASMELASH

Winning a war is a victory but subduing your adversary without fighting is ingenuity. Eritrea surprisingly has come out triumphant. As Martin Luther King Jr said, “Lightning makes no sound until it strikes”.

The devil and its surrogate, the TPLF junta, that was an obstacle of peace and stability in the Horn of Africa region is defeated.  Its grave is sealed and locked with no hope of resurrection. The horn of Africa region now enters in the post TPLF era.

This minority TPLF group sow the wind but now is reaping the whirlwind. If yesterday was impossible to overcome Eritrea’s expedition, it is unthinkable today and unimaginable tomorrow. After twenty years of continuous provocation, defamation, and blackmail, the Eritrean Camel keeps marching towards its destination while the mad dog continues barking.

The game has officially ended, and Eritrea has successfully completed the second operation of Fenkil against the TPLF junta.

Yohana Eritrea! Let your citizens, small, young and old wave the Eritrean patriotic palm branches and sing the song of triumphant victory over the evil beast!

Let freedom rains Eritrea
The land of the brave
Let Nakfa sing the song of Victory
The old lyrics of Yikealo
Let Sawa speak the story of Warsai
The strength and resilience
Let Eritrea shout Awet Nehafash!
The Martyrs rest in peace!

The “No-war No-Peace” strategy that was crafted to weaken Eritrea has swallowed its own architect. The myopic brain of TPLF was not able to comprehend and see the long-term consequences of their actions. They foolishly entered into unnecessary conflict with Eritrea without realizing the dangerous entanglement from which there are no exits. Their adventurous journey and arrogance have ended with humiliation.

The Game Over declaration by President Isaias Afwerki on June 20, 2018, was the culmination of TPLF’s apartheid system in Ethiopia and their adventurism in the Horn of Africa. From this day forward, TPLF as a political entity is dead. Its soul has been bound in hell, but for a little while, its skeleton will be walking like a zombie to create chaos and harm innocent civilians to disrupt the ongoing transition in Ethiopia and terrorize its people.

Forgetting so quickly the historical facts and Eritrea’s strength, the minority TPLF regime gravely underestimated Eritrea’s power supply, the unwavering resilience, perseverance and strength of its people which stood firm in the test of time against all odds for the last fifty years. The resilience, brevity, and discipline that was built and shaped during the thirty years of struggle for independence are neither mimicable nor obtainable through hard currency in the Arms market. Eritrea’s resilience is peculiar, authentic and immune from any forgery. It is unmatched with any kind of Weaponry, Artillery, Tanks and Fighter Jets. It is impossible to decipher or decode Eritrea’s heroic algorithms.

Eritrea’s principle is unshakable; it never falters on the truth, keeps integrity and resilience, imitates no one but fights and operates according to its own rhythms. Eritrea’s arch enemies spent millions of dollars on armaments, intelligence, and sabotage. However, they were not able to weaken the Eritrean spirit and resilience.

Many pundits, as well as mainstream media, have miscalculated its strength. Eritrea may seem to be far away, but it is very near, it may appear to be weak, but it is strong, it may seem to be divided but impenetrable even in its darkest moments, it may appear to be inactive but dynamic, and it may appear to be defeated but victorious and it may seem to be slow like a Turtle, but its dynamic rhythm outlasted and outlived the enemy’s short-lived adventurism. As always, in the final laps of the game, no one can stop Eritrea from the finish lines.

Justice has prevailed, and Eritrea has been vindicated. The devil and its surrogate, the TPLF junta has been cornered and thrown into the bottomless pit.

Eritrea, your children will sing your story of heroic acts for generations to come. Yes, the pain and sufferings experienced is enormous. Yes, you were alone inside the fiery furnace, but you never faltered. As the famous poet and writer, Khalil Gibran puts it “Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars”

Eternal glory to our Martyrs!

The post Eritrea Successfully Ends Operation Fenkil 2.0 appeared first on TesfaNews.

The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea are scheduled to meet soon to discuss reviving relations that have been in deep freeze for decades.

Analysts believe that ending their bitter dispute could be transformative for Eritrea, whose policies have been driven by the deadlock with its neighbour.

Here are four things to know about why the quarrel matters so much to Eritrea — and why ending it could reshape the country.

How important is the dispute to Eritrea?

Very.

Eritrea contends — and a United Nations-backed boundary commission agreed in 2002 — that Ethiopia is illegally occupying land along the two countries’ border that belongs to Eritrea.

It was along this frontier that Ethiopia and Eritrea, went to war, from 1998 to 2000, in a conflict that killed around 80,000 people.

Since the 2000 Algiers agreement ended the war, Eritrea’s president, Isaias Afwerki, has used Ethiopia’s rejection of the subsequent boundary ruling to justify a host of repressive domestic policies.

These include jailing journalists and dissidents, refusing to implement the constitution and running an indefinite military conscription program the UN likens to slavery.

“The country was put on hold for 20 years and everything revolved around [the border dispute],” says Abraham Zere, a [worthless] exiled journalist and executive director of the literature and rights organisation, PEN Eritrea.

Does Eritrea want rapprochement?

Yes, by all indications.

Ethiopia’s new prime minister Abiy Ahmed made the first move in June by announcing Ethiopia would withdraw from the town of Badme and other disputed border territories, in accordance with the 2002 ruling.

Eritrea responded by sending two top officials to Ethiopia, and later a meeting between Abiy and Isaias was announced, though no details have been given.

“I think it’s fair to say the Eritrean leadership is committed to political rapprochement,” says Michael Woldemariam of Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies.

Ethiopia has not withdrawn from the contested areas yet, but doing so will meet a long-stated Eritrean demand. […]

How would peace benefit Eritrea?

Hugely.

Eritrea and Ethiopia are among Africa’s poorest nations, but while Ethiopia has seen its economy grow by “double-digit” figures in recent years, Eritrea has stagnated.

Analysts believe normalising ties would benefit both countries.

Eritrean industries could service the growing markets of its much larger and more populous southern neighbour.

“Eritrea is going to gain a lot, because it will be able to follow Ethiopia’s economic momentum,” says Marc Lavergne of the National Centre for Scientific Research in Paris.

Woldemariam argues settling the dispute with Ethiopia could also spur foreign investors to consider Eritrea free of the fear of incurring Addis Ababa’s wrath.

“It is likely that improving relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea will further solidify the Eritrean state’s rehabilitation on the international scene,” he adds.

Peace could also help resolve Ethiopia’s problem of lack of access to the sea: the country became landlocked after Eritrea, which comprised Ethiopia’s entire coastline, seceded in 1993.

The outbreak of war five years later stopped the flow of Ethiopian goods through Eritrea’s Red Sea ports, but trade and transport could restart if the two countries come to terms.

“The port of Massawa will get a boost and become one of the alternative ports for Ethiopia,” Lavergne says.

Who else is involved?

Nobody, officially.

Last week’s breakthrough meeting between Ethiopia and Eritrea was not brokered by any third party.

However, analysts say policy shifts by the US and Gulf countries towards the two countries and their dispute may have played a role in hastening the diplomatic thaw.

Eritrea has long accused the US of taking sides, blaming Washington for failing to push Ethiopia to abide by the boundary ruling, and for supporting Security Council sanctions against it.

The post Eritrea and Peace with Ethiopia: Four Questions appeared first on TesfaNews.