The political transformation that has taken place in Ethiopia over the past 19 months can best be described as miraculous. I use the word in both its original Latin root meaning “miraculum” (“object of wonder”) and common understanding suggesting divine intervention in human affairs creating an object of wonder.
In January 2018, all indications were the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was hunkering down to defend its ethnic apartheid system.
The TPLF leaders always bragged without them at the helm of power, there will be no Ethiopia. Everyone feared the TPLF leaders will not hesitate to blow up the country into smithereens if they felt they were going to lose power.
In February 2018, I had given up all hope of a peaceful democratic transition. I was convinced Ethiopia was on the precipice of a civil war.
I wrote in The Hill, “To save Ethiopia from civil war, solutions must work from the ground up.” I concluded, “Time is running out for Ethiopia and the point of no return nears.”
By April 2018, the game had changed. It was clear the TPLF was in the throes of its final battle to remain in power.
On April 1, 2018, the day before Abiy Ahmed officially became prime minister, I wrote, “After 27 years nearly to the month, there is no doubt that TPLF wounded beast is in retreat but not in defeat.”
On April 2, 2018 when Abiy Ahmed was named prime minister, the TPLF and Ethiopia had crossed the point of no return.
The TPLF was going down, down, down into the dustbin of history!
Ethiopia was going up, up, up from ethnic apartheid into multiparty democracy.
On November 24, 2019, the TPLF bit the dust. More poetically, the TPLF was dumped into the dust bin, garbage heap, of history.
That was surely miraculous!
Since the TPLF took power in 1991, its leaders had bragged and boasted about how mighty, invincible and untouchable they are.
They used to brag about how the mountains would shake, rattle and tremble at their mere presence.
The late Meles Zenawi used to taunt the opposition with contempt. “We got power by shedding our blood. If you want to get power, you must fight your way to power just like we did. The TPLF will remain in power for a hundred years.”
The tragedy is Meles Zenawi and his gang came to power by shedding their blood and stayed in power for 27 years by shedding the blood of others.
Then came Abiy Ahmed and declared, “To kill is to be defeated. Victory must be achieved only in the battlefield of ideas.”
He proclaimed we “shall beat our swords into plowshares, and our spears into pruning hooks.”
No more lifting sword against one another nor against neighbor.
In less than a month, Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afewerki removed the dark clouds of war and made peace. Abiy Ahmed was named the Nobel Peace Laureate for 2019.
In 2010, Meles Zenawi told American diplomats how he will teach a lesson the opposition will not forget: “We will crush them with our full force… and they will vegetate like Birtukan (Midekssa) in jail forever.”
In 2019, Birtukan Midekssa is the Election Commissioner of Ethiopia and Meles Zenawi and the TPLF are dead, forever.
The little big man Meles Zenawi did not understand the greatest men and the empires they forge are nothing more than sands in the hourglass. Nor did he understand, “The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones.”
The evil Meles Zenawi and his TPLF gang have done will live after them. But there is a major cleanup of evil underway today.
The TPLF and its 27-year rule of oppression, corruption, human right violation came to an end suddenly, not with a bang but a whimper.
In December 2015, I had wondered what the “end of the story will be for the TPLF in Ethiopia.”
I argued the only outstanding question was whether the TPLF story will end with a bang or a whimper.
Two months later in February 2016, I knew the TPLF’s end would come with a whimper.
I knew the TPLF was an evil beast with feet of clay. When gazed upon, the TPLF appears awesome, formidable and infinitely powerful. It has guns, tanks, rockets, planes and bombs. Though the TPLF has legs of iron, its feet are made of clay.
In May 2016 when the TPLF celebrated its silver jubilee (25th anniversary) extravaganza, I prophetically warned them their end is near but they cannot see it because they are blinded by arrogance and ignorance. “There is no doubt about it. The day of reckoning for the TPLF will come ‘unexpectedly, like a thief in the night.’”
On November 20, 2019, the end came like a thief in the night for the TPLF Alibabas and the Forty Thieves.
What poetic justice!
The TPLF whimpered in a public statementand a letter, delivered it and then put its tail between its legs and moped into the sunset, beckoned by the garbage heap of history, hanging their heads low and blustering, “We will create a de facto state.”
How strange these TPLF blokes (or is it blockheads) are?
Are the TPLF Schrödinger’s cat saying they are legally dead but are alive in fact?
They will soon realize, if they have not already, the true meaning of Napoleon Bonaparte’s regrets. “Death is nothing, but to live defeated is to die every day.”
“Parting is such sweet sorrow” TPLF. We hope to never to see you on the morrow.
With the usual swap between Kenya and Ethiopia for the chairmanship role is no longer acceptable, differences, however, between Kenya and Djibouti have prevented the bloc from deciding the next country to chair IGAD.
Kenya and Djibouti could both miss out on the chairmanship of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) as the regional bloc seeks to resolve simmering differences between Horn of Africa countries.
In its first Ordinary Summit in nearly 10 years, representatives of IGAD members are sitting in Addis Ababa on Thursday and Friday to determine who will chair it next.
It is also expected to confirm Ethiopian diplomat Workneh Gebeyehu as the new executive secretary, according to a programme released on Thursday morning.
New Structure
The programme indicated that the council of ministers will first meet on Thursday morning to nominate the country that will take the chairmanship as well as vote on a new organisational structure that will make the body to be more responsive to local challenges.
But differences between Kenya and Djibouti have prevented the bloc from deciding, on consensus, who becomes the next to chair IGAD after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
On Wednesday, a diplomat said that both Somalia and Djibouti, who have been opposed to Kenya taking over the chairmanship, have not relented, meaning a new country could take the position as a compromise.
Compromise Chairperson
“The seat could go to Uganda or Sudan,” said the official, indicating that the compromise chairperson will be one way to avoid any falling-out.
Djibouti recently lost to Kenya at an African Union (AU) vote to endorse the African candidate for the UN Security Council seat.
But the country has stuck in the race, launching campaigns and accusing the AU of not following proper procedure to endorse a candidate.
Somalia, which supports Djibouti for the UN seat, has also staked against Nairobi.
Until November, there had been simmering diplomatic tensions between Mogadishu and Nairobi after the former sued at the International Court of Justice seeking to have a maritime boundary between them redrawn.
In early November, Presidents Uhuru Kenyatta and Somalia’s Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo agreed to restore all bilateral agreements, in spite of the case due in June 2020.
IGAD Summit
The IGAD Summit, composed of heads of state and governments, will be expected to approve Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, a former Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, as the new executive secretary.
He had been appointed earlier last month in what Dr Abiy claimed followed “consensus.”
Dr Workneh has already taken over from Kenyan Mahboub Maalim.
But he will face the challenge of unifying the bloc’s members, bring in Eritrea and raise funds for a bloc that has often relied on donors for most of its programmes.
Eritrea
Eritrea, a founder member of IGAD, has often been on and off, suspending itself in 2007 before returning in 2016 but still failing to attend most meetings.
But it now appears a planned swap between Kenya and Ethiopia for the chairmanship roles may not go through.
The last such ordinary summit happened in 2010 when Kenya’s Mwai Kibaki handed chairmanship to then prime minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi. Since then, Ethiopia has continuously held the chairmanship through its three successive Prime ministers.
One argument fronted by both Addis Ababa and Nairobi’s domination of the bloc is that they are the largest contributors to the IGAD budget and currently have no arrears. The two pump in at least USD2.7 million each per year.
Formed in 1996, IGAD superseded the Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development (IGADD) which was founded in 1986 to deal with natural disasters.
The new bloc was supposed to generate a regional identity and be in charge of resolving regional crises from civil wars to natural disasters and enhance economic and regional integration.
NO MORE EPRDF. With the exception of the moping TPLF, all members of Ethiopia’s ruling EPRDF coalition today signed a unification document to become one ‘Prosperity Party.’
Three former member parties of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, EPRDF, and five agar (“support’) parties, as they used to be called during the entire lifetime of the coalition which sort of officially ended on Sunday, December 1, 2019, have inked their signature in the capital Addis Ababa officially signaling that time for Prosperity Party is ushering.
Prime minister Abiy Ahmed updated his fans on social media about what is considered to be a milestone moment in Ethiopian politics in three languages.
He wrote, “A momentous signing occasion marking the unification of our Party. The unification process will continue maintaining legality and due process.”
According to a report by state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting Corporation (FBC), Chairpersons of the parties who approved the merger to form the Prosperity Party (PP) have attended the signing ceremony.
As well, senior government officials including Demeke Mekonnen, who is Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister, and Muferiat Kamil, minister for the Ministry of Peace – one of the most powerful institutions in the country next to the office of the prime minister, have attended the meeting.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a speech during the ceremony. He said that Prosperity Party holds two twin agenda items; development and democracy. “It is a reliable bridge that is based on truth and knowledge to transit Ethiopia [ to prosperity]”
He also mentioned that the party has prepared program and party regulation, which is yet to be made public, and a 10 years plan to usher “Ethiopia to prosperity.”
The umbrella coalition organization of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), was composed of four major ethnic-based (except SEPDM) political organizations and five other support organizations. The latter groups were marginalized, by design and with party regulations, did not have the power to decide on national matters or to hold the highest office in the country. The new party, Prosperity Party, is organized in a way to end what many members call, rightly, injustice in that regard.
Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a party that engineered and dominated the now phased out coalition, declined to join the new party on alleged grounds that it was formed in a way that violates the political and legal procedures. It said “what happened in the name of a merger is the formation of a new party,” and argued that EPRDF leadership does not have the mandate to abandon “revolutionary democracy.”
Individuals figures outside of TPLF have also opposed the merger. Ethiopia’s Defense Minister, Lemma Megersa, who was also a key ally and former boss of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, stated his opposition to the formation of a singer merged party out of the EPRDF coalition in an interview with VOA Afan Oromo language saying that a) he does not believe in it which seems to imply that he prefers the ethnic-based arrangement b) it’s not timely.
Moments from the signing occasion marking the unification of EPRDF into Prosperity Party in the presence of PM @AbiyAhmedAli.
Banked on political and economic wars between Eritrea/Ethiopia and Sudan/South-South, Kenya launched the Lamu port mega project in 2012 with pomp and fanfare. Eight years later, the political crisis in those countries ends, yet the project is behind schedule and still suffering from both monetary and political constraints.
Lamu Port could fail to attract Ethiopia and South Sudan markets who might opt for the Djibouti and Eritrea ports, according to the Shippers Council of East Africa (SCEA).
The Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project pegs its sustainability on the two countries.
According to the shippers council, the end of political and economic wars between Ethiopia and Eritrea following the July 2018 peace has created a conducive environment for trade.
Eritrea has a port which is closer to Ethiopia compared to the Lamu port.
Djibouti also provides Ethiopia with a relatively cheaper and convenient trade corridor through its port. Ethiopia seems to have shifted focus to Djibouti.
Road and rail infrastructure between the two countries including the Ethio-Djibouti railway passenger and freight system, which commenced on January 1, 2018, seems to have also shifted interest away from the Lapsset corridor.
Future prospects of peace between South Sudan and her neighbor Sudan will add pressure on Lamu Port, said SCEA chief executive Gilbert Langat.
Lack of a reliable road and rail network for cargo evacuation could also makes the use of Lamu port more expensive than Mombasa Port.
“Let’s not count on these countries. If today South Sudan and Sudan go back to the old days and allow passage of goods through Port Sudan, it will impact Lamu Port. Ethiopia the same with Eritrea and Djibouti,” said Langat.
“We have no control on what happens in Ethiopia and South Sudan,” he told the Star.
He said the government should instead focus on developing Lamu Port as a transshipment hub and a commodity port which allows developers to put up Special Economic Zones.
Langat said Lamu’s natural depth and proximity to the open sea, makes it a gives it potential transshipment to serve South Africa, Tanzania, Middle East, Europe, and even Mombasa just like Oman’s Port of Salalah.
“Lamu may provide a bigger facility for transshipment where Kenya can become a major player for transshipment and maritime trade. The government should give space to shipping lines to put up berths. This way, they will guarantee business,” Langat said.
The Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) is currently assembling equipment for Lamu Port (whose first berth was ready in August), while pushing promotional tariffs to shipping lines and agents.
“The process (to equip Lamu Port) is ongoing,” KPA head of corporate affairs Bernard Osero told the Star yesterday, “We took shipping agencies there and a lot of them have showed interest in using Lamu Port.”
KPA managing director Daniel Manduku says they have plans to transform Lamu into a transshipment hub, but focus still remains on regional import-export markets.
“We are going to promote Lamu as a transshipment port,” Manduku told the Star, with Zanzibar among the targeted destinations.
Lapsset CEO Silvester Kasuku said that infrastructure is in place to ensure smooth transportation for both domestic and transit cargo, with southern Ethiopia and South Sudan being major destinations.
“I can confirm that we have immediate offtake road for Lamu Port,” Kasuku said.
The government is tarmacking the 135-kilometer Lamu-Garsen road, the main road connecting Lamu to the rest of the coastal region and other parts of Kenya.
In August, the government indicated it would seek the African Union’s support in bringing investors and regional support for the Lapsset project.
Launched in 2012, during former President Mwai Kibaki’s regime, the project has been delayed by cash constraints and lack of political good-will which has slowed down its implementation.
President Isaias Afwerki received at the Denden Guest House the credentials of 29 Ambassadors. The resident and non-resident Ambassadors that submitted their credentials are:
Ambassadors of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Federal Republic of Germany, United Kingdom, Republic of India, European Union, Republic of Egypt, Republic of South Africa, Republic of Slovakia, Kingdom of Belgium, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Republic of Serbia, Republic of Guinea, Republic of Uganda, Romania, Austria, Poland, Republic of Indonesia, Canada, Finland, Check Republic, Spain, Sweden, Philippines, Rwanda, Greece, Brazil, Ireland and Republic of Venezuela.
At the event the Ambassadors wished good health to President Isaias Afwerki and peace and prosperity to the Eritrean people and expressed readiness to work for the development of bilateral relations and cooperation of their respective countries with Eritrea.
The resident Ambassador of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Mr. Redwan Hussein Rameto, said that Eritrea and Ethiopia have agreed to work for the develop of the multi-faceted bilateral relations and cooperation between the two countries and to strengthen peace and stability prevailing in the region.
In the meeting with Mr. Sagr Suliman Al Qurashi, Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, President Isaias commending the encouraging progress of the bilateral relations between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia, said that the two countries should work for the stability and peace in the Red Sea Basin.
Indicating that the relation between the two countries is on the right track, Ambassador Sagr Suliman expressed his country’s readiness to strengthen bilateral relations and cooperation between the two countries and beyond.
The Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany, Mr. Gerald Wolf expressed his country’s readiness to contribute in maintaining the peace and stability prevailing in the region.
Indicating that peace and stability is the only alternative for the peoples in the region, President Isaias said that synchronized effort is being exerted to develop peace, stability and cooperation in the region.
Indicating the progress Eritrea is registering in addressing climate change and to develop water resources and solar energy, the Ambassador of the United Kingdom, Mr. Alasdair Walker expressed his country’s willingness to cooperate in the development of the sectors.
Expressing delight for becoming the first resident Indian Ambassador to Eritrea, Mr. Subhash Chand expressed his country’s readiness to develop bilateral cooperation with Eritrea in all sectors.
President Isaias on his part expressed Eritrea’s willingness to develop relation with India in the sectors of human resources development and others.
President Isaias similarly discussed the enhancement of bilateral ties and cooperation in his meetings with the Ambassadors of the several countries that submitted their credentials.
Yesterday I presented my credentials to President Isaias. Opportunity to discuss UK/Eritrea relations and deepening the dialogue between our two countries pic.twitter.com/pHZzSGejBf
‘Highly problematic’ that Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize won’t attend any event where he could be asked questions publicly – Nobel body
Why do he bother himself to give interviews for winning a prize that has lost its meaning outside of the cash value? (Photo: Lee Jin-man/AP)
The director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute has called it “highly problematic” that the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner won’t attend any event next week where he could be asked questions publicly, while the spokesman for Ethiopia’s prime minister cited “pressing” domestic issues and the leader’s “humble disposition.”
Organizers “had wished that Abiy Ahmed would have agreed to meet the Norwegian and international press,” Olav Njoelstad said, telling Norwegian broadcaster NRK on Wednesday that most Peace Prize winners have no problem putting aside three or four days for traditional Nobel events.
“We have been very clear about this and have clarified that there are several reasons we find this highly problematic,” Njoelstad said. “I think it has to do in part with the challenges he faces at home, and his religious faith and personal humility.”
Abiy’s press secretary, Billene Seyoum, told The Associated Press that it is “quite challenging” for a head of state to dedicate many days to the extensive Nobel program, particularly since “domestic issues are pressing and warrant attention.”
Abiy will attend essential events in consultation with the Nobel Institute “to honor and respect the Nobel tradition.”
At the same time, “the humble disposition of the prime minister, rooted in our cultural context, is not in alignment with the very public nature of the Nobel award,” Billene said. “The prime minister is humbled and grateful for the recognition.”
Skipping the media isn’t unprecedented. U.S. President Barack Obama also declined to speak to reporters when he won the Peace Prize in 2009.
Abiy has rarely given interviews since taking office last year. His spokesman called him “one of the most accessible Ethiopian prime ministers to date in public and media engagements.”
Abiy was awarded the Peace Prize for making peace with neighboring Eritrea after one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts and for introducing sweeping political reforms, but already troubles are growing at home.
Violent unrest, sometimes along ethnic lines, is expected to worsen ahead of Ethiopia’s election in May. Debate has broken out on social media about whether Abiy deserves the award.
When the Peace Prize was announced earlier this year, Nobel chairwoman Berit Reiss-Andersen said some people may consider it too early to give it to Abiy, but “it is now that Abiy Ahmed’s efforts need recognition and deserve encouragement.”
The prime minister is expected to give his acceptance speech Tuesday at Oslo City Hall before officials, including Norwegian royals, after receiving the 9-million kronor ($945,000) cash award, a gold medal and a diploma.
Abiy also is to meet with Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg and open a Nobel Prize exhibition during a private ceremony.
“I accept this award on behalf of my partner and comrade in peace Isaias Afwerki whose good will, trust and commitment were vital in ending the two decade deadlock between our countries.”
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for forging an end to almost two decades of conflict with neighboring Eritrea, described how his personal exposure to the horrors it wrought drove him to seek a rapprochement.
“War is the epitome of hell for all involved,” Abiy, who served as a radio operator in the Ethiopian army and was the only survivor of an artillery attack on his unit during the war, said in his Nobel lecture in Oslo on Tuesday. “I know because I have been there and back.”
Abiy, 43, became Africa’s youngest leader when he was appointed prime minister in March 2018, and immediately announced a swathe of political and economic reforms. Three months later, he and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki agreed a peace accord to end a stalemate that followed a 1998-2000 border war in which as many as 100,000 people died.
Abiy described Isaias as his partner and said his goodwill and commitment played a vital role in bringing about the deal that persuaded the United Nations to lift decade-old sanctions on Eritrea.
“We understood our nations are not enemies,” the Ethiopian leader said in a prepared speech. “Instead, we were victims of the common enemy called poverty. We recognized that while our two nations were stuck on old grievances, the world was shifting rapidly and leaving us behind.”
While parts of the peace accord remain unimplemented, including territorial demarcations outlined by a 2002 boundary commission and the reopening of several border crossings, Abiy described the two nations’ commitment to peace as “iron-clad.”
At home, Abiy’s unbanning of Ethiopian opposition and rebel groups, has stoked political fragmentation and long-suppressed rivalries among ethnic communities. That’s led regional groups to intensify calls for more self-determination. Reforms have also faced mounting opposition from anti-government groups and within the ruling party, which has factionalized under his rule.
Abiy said the returns of reform would be seen in the years to come, and that his administration remained committed to maintaining multiparty democracy, media freedom and human rights.
Abiy’s visit to Norway was also marked by his decision not to attend a press conference — traditionally an integral part of the Nobel Peace Prize award program. In unusual criticism of a laureate, the head of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said last week the snub was “very unfortunate.”
The Nobel Committee went as far as sending its secretary to Addis Ababa to try to convince Abiy to talk to the press during his visit, but to no avail, said Chairwoman Berit Reiss-Andersen. U.S. President Barack Obama also skipped the press conference when he claimed the prize in 2009, taking only two questions from selected media.
The IMF is poised to approve a loan of almost $3bn for Ethiopia as part of a program to provide balance of payments support for the cash-strapped economy as well as technical assistance for the government’s liberalization agenda.
The loan, which still needs IMF board approval, has been agreed by staff after the fund opened a representative office in Addis Ababa this year, according to Ethiopia’s state minister of finance, Eyob Tolina.
The east African country of 105 million people has enjoyed more than a decade of high growth but recently ran into capacity constraints and chronic shortages of foreign exchange, a byproduct of its tightly state-controlled economy.
Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, took office in 2018, promising to overhaul the economy. He has spoken frequently about the limits of Ethiopia’s Asian-style state-led development model, which has produced 15 years of near double-digit growth, and he has pledged to nudge Ethiopia towards a more open, market-oriented system.
In September, Mr Abiy, who received the Nobel Peace Prize on Tuesday, announced a “homegrown economic reform” agenda, which he said would include opening various sectors to foreign investment for the first time. Two new telecoms licences are due to be auctioned next year.
Mr Tolina described the anticipated IMF program as “a huge stamp of approval” for Mr Abiy’s agenda. “It’s excellent news,” he said. “They want to support our policy reform.”
The funds, which will be released in tranches, would be used to counter a looming balance of payments crisis and to fund specific reform initiatives, he said. He added that the IMF would also provide technical assistance on macroeconomic policy, but did not specify in which areas.
The IMF confirmed the agreement after the Financial Times published details of the loan. The fund added that the three-year $2.9bn finance package had been approved by staff following an IMF visit to Ethiopia in November. The program would also strengthen the oversight of state-owned enterprises and support the reform of Ethiopia’s financial sector, it said in a statement.
Analysts said Ethiopia would be keen to present the IMF program as its own and not something imposed by the Washington-based institution.
Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “The reality is they are running out of money. Their shortage of foreign exchange is acute and has been for years and their requirement for external capital has risen greatly.”
Describing the $3bn as “a substantial chunk of change”, he said he suspected the IMF would put pressure on the government to move to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its lending program.
Razia Khan, chief Africa economist at Standard Chartered bank, said: “Finalizing an IMF program might be seen as a clear pointer that Ethiopia is that much more serious about rolling out these reforms.”
The government had already indicated it had an appetite for foreign exchange liberalization over the medium term, she said.
Ethiopia has for years relied on borrowing from domestic banks to fund its investment program. Foreign banks are not allowed to invest in the country.
The policy has enabled Ethiopia to finance one of Africa’s most ambitious infrastructure builds, including the $4bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but it has also contributed to foreign exchange shortages as the government allocates scarce reserves to strategic investors.
The new injection of foreign currency would help to address that problem and give comfort to new market entrants, said Zemedeneh Negatu, a prominent Ethiopia investor.
“The infusion of an additional several billion into the economy will . . . give local and international investors additional confidence since they will view it as concrete steps being taken by the government to address some of the current macroeconomic headwinds,” he said.
A month after Redwan Hussien presented his credentials as Ethiopia’s ambassador to Eritrea, he has been recalled to take over the position of a State Minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Congratulations Ambassador Redwan.
It is not even a month since Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki received the credential of Ethiopian Ambassador to Eritrea. But it is not confirmed that Ambassador Redwan Hussien might not stay long in the position.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia announced on Friday that Redwan is appointed as State Minister of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, and his appointment is effective as of December 27, 2019 -which is actually the same day that the Eritrean president concluded his latest visit to Ethiopia.
Dr. Markos Tekle, now former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, is apparently removed unceremoniously.
It is rumored that he was terminated from his position with a letter from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. And that his removal has something to do with the interview he had with DW Amharic regarding Chinese Delegation which disallowed to travel to Mekele, Tigray, to meet with the regional leaders regarding what officials in the region called “bilateral relations and investment.”
During an interview with DW Amharic, Markos confirmed that the Chinese delegation was prohibited from traveling to Tigray and that it happened without the knowledge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia.
Why Ambassador Redwan was selected to replace him is unclear either. In the past, he served as Minister for Communications Affairs, and also as Ethiopian Ambassador to Ireland.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia did not disclose at this writing if another diplomat is taking over the position in Asmara anytime soon.
Ambassador Redwan Hussien who has been serving as Ethiopia’s envoy to Eritrea since July 2018, is appointed to be State Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of #Ethiopia as of 27 December 2019. @RedwanHussien@NEBGETpic.twitter.com/MM5uDITXQ6
Disgraced Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) officially announced the death of EPRDF coalition, called its successor, Prosperity Party, ‘Illegitimate’.
In a defiant move, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) has decided not to join the Prosperity Party (PP) at the end of its extraordinary conference held over the weekend. According to several videos released, the tone of the just concluded conference was that of anger and defiance directed against central forces.
In a resolution issued on Sunday, TPLF said the merger with the PP is impractical owing to differences and opposing political outlooks and visions between the two parties.
In the extraordinary conference held for the first time in its 45-year history, the TPLF said its relations with the federal government will remain intact but will be executed based on the law of the country and that of the constitution.
TPLF in its eight-point resolution also said it will claim its share of properties of the recently demised Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of regional parties that ruled the nation for 27 years.
EPRDF was established 30 years ago as a coalition of four standing political parties formed along ethnic lines, namely the TPLF, Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and the Southern Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Movement (SEPDM).
In the long-awaited decision, TPLF said its executive members shall remain in their position. According to videos shown to the public, the party’s executive members were praised for making such difficult decisions regarding the EPRDF and the federal government in Addis Ababa.
TPLF warned any possible intervention from the federal government over issues affecting Tigray regional state will be met harshly.
“TPLF will take legal action against any attempt trying to disrupt the unity of the Tigrayan people and peace in the regional state,” the resolution said
The party also has given full mandate to its central committee to follow and supervise the complete implementation of the resolutions passed in the extraordinary conference.
Speaking on the occasion, the chair of the party, Debertsion Gebermichael, described the decision by the central government to disband the EPRDF as “undemocratic” and in ”violation” of the principles of EPRDF and the law of the country.
TPLF has also decided to establish a strategic alliance with ‘federalist forces’ in the form of a forum, coalition or a front for a common goal. According to some reports, the TPLF has been looking for potential partners to form some sort of alliance of federalist forces to challenge the Prosperity Party and other national parties.
Recently the organization held a second national consultative forum under the theme “Rescuing the Constitution and Federal System,” December 3-4, 2019, in Mekele city. However, given its tarnished name in the rest of Ethiopia, it is unclear if the TPLF will manage to build a credible alliance worthy of any power in Ethiopia.
“The government and political party as well as the government and religion are mixed up creating serious problems in the country. In short, after the last meeting of EPRDF, the country has reached the verge of crumbling,” Deberetsion had said in an earlier speech.
Throughout the nearly 30-year rule of the EPRDF, Ethiopia never saw the separation of party from state. The two have been one and the same, earning the government the name “authoritarian” by world bodies. The absence of checks and balances between the executive, judiciary and the military sent thousands of people into exile and/or prison, and ultimately resulted in the demise of the EPRDF.
Jawar said 'Can you imagine TPLF joining the Oromo coalition as a JUNIOR party, that would have been funny'.
TPLF as a JUNIOR party.
The clique has become a laughing stock & an embarrassment to Tigray region.
Did Col. Kassa Gerbremariam actually killed himself?
MYSTERY RESOLVED. The last piece of the puzzle that intrigued Col. Mengistu Hailemariam and his Generals for several decades has now got an answer. Here is the story as told by the commander who planned and execute the destruction of the elite army command post led by Col. Kassa Gebremariam and put an end to the Fifth Offensive (ሓሙሻይ ወራር).
Fans at a soccer match usually see the mistakes in a game better than the players on the field. Similarly, military units who watch from a distance can see openings to be exploited better than units actually engaged in a battle. This is particularly true for the commanders in charge of the engaged units who follow the progress of a battle from a near distance. In the heat of a battle, these commanders of the battling unit can observe a situation and exploit a condition to change the situation to their advantage.
The initiative and great flexibility of EPLF soldiers in new and unchartered situations in a heated battle are well known even by our enemy commanders. There is a testimony to this fact in a notebook of General Abera Abebe. He used this notebook to document daily events of 1979 to 1981.
It was among the contents of a box General Abera left for General Hussien when he departed from the area in March 1982. We found the notebook when we destroyed the enemy’s Wukaw campaign. We read in the notebook a copy of what General Abebe wrote to the highest authorities of the revolutionary leaders of the 2nd Division army. It reads as follows:
“In our effort to boost the morale of our army, our inspirational talk to belittle the rebels had a dire consequence. Day and night we kept propagandizing to our army … ‘Shabia’s army morale is low … Its run out of food and bullets, and it is limited to hiding in a few mountains …’
Our propaganda broadcasts, however, differed greatly from the facts on the ground. This caused our soldiers to be ill prepared for battle. When they found the facts on the ground to be different than what we had drilled into them, they immediately became demoralized. The rebels had soldiers who could survive eating grass and shrubs and fight with the weapons they had stolen from our soldiers.
Unlike them, rebel platoon leaders didn’t complain to the their superiors about a loss of a position in a battle. They regrouped and took back their lost position by launching counter offensives on their own initiative. They didn’t complain up the line when they found themselves in tough situations. They coordinated with their comrades on their left and right flanks and solved their own debacles. They said to each other, ‘Wait, it is better from this side, I can do it better, and so on.’”
General Abera’s written record admired EPLF soldiers, platoon leaders, and the entire EPLF leadership. Yet if truth be told, for the EPLF’s leadership, a battle was an art more than a science. To record all the examples that prove this fact would be difficult. Tens of bookshelves would not be enough if every Tegadalay had written about the self- initiated solutions that he or she improvised to solve the challenges encountered in various battles. I will site some from the many encounters I experienced myself.
* * * * * *
This is about a battle in Adi Hawsha in 1977. Our forces were positioned in the area between Adi Hawsha and Zigb. At night, the 52nd Brigade came from Keren and joined our forces that were ready to launch an attack the next morning. Immediately we positioned one battalion from the new brigade between Tselot and Adi Awsha.
Unexpectedly, however, we met an attack from the enemy before we resume our attack as planned. The surprise attack created confusion especially when one of our battalions positioned on the north side was forced to leave its position. This was when the battalion we positioned between Adi Hawisha and Tselot took its own initiative and attacked the enemy from its side and controlled the paved road of Dekemhare. This attack drastically changed the situation to our advantage. The battalion’s initiative was instrumental in squashing the enemy’s attack and speed up our counter attack forward.
When we were entrenched in the Yangus area in December 1977 and planning an attack to control Dogali, the enemy made a surprise attack. Withstanding the setback, we immediately decided to execute our previous planned counter-offensive attack. Halting the enemy’s assault, our counter offensive resumed. To our dismay, our attacking units that were on the left flank met serious resistance from the enemy’s tanks, artillery and BM 21 propelled rockets positioned on the road to Massawa. It became impossible to push forward.
At this critical juncture, one of our battalions that was not engaged in the battle decided to take its own initiative. Informing the front commanders, it sneaked into the enemy’s line and launched a surprise attack on the southern side of Dogali. As a result, the enemy soldiers were in disarray. Battalion 23.2’s initiative resulted in the destruction of the heavily fortified enemy front line. This victory opened the way to the Hirgigo and Forro areas.
* * * * * *
It was in July 1979. Our fighters were fiercely defending against the Fifth Offensive. On the seventh day of this campaign and amassing all its firepower the enemy launched a massive attack on our defending units, Battalions 44.2 and 22.3. This attack was supported with heavy artillery shelling and warplane bombardment that rained on them.
At that time, I was (as a commander of Brigade 44) with Battalion 44.2, led by Mokonen Tekle (Gubtan Desta) and Ali Manjus, which was positioned on the north side of Maedenen. A few days, before our forces were engaged in hand-to-hand combat to repel the enemy’s advance, while also enduring a five-day pounding of heavy artillery shelling, aerial and tank bombardments, which were propelled from the Debat area.
In July’s merciless heat, we fought for three days without food and water. Between the enemy, and us there was a small ravine that had some water. The enemy was at one side of its bank while we were on the other side. At dark we fought each other to control the water. Five days later the enemy suddenly retreated from the ravine. Only then did we have full control of the water. On the sixth day, the enemy suddenly left the area, and headed towards Maedenen mountain, and west of the mountain in the direction of the area where Battalion 44.3 was embedded. We only discovered this move at daybreak.
From the five hundred arms it left and the non-buried corpses, we understood that the enemy left the area in a hurry. Furthermore, we immediately knew the reason for this sudden move. We anticipated the next day that there would be heavy fighting with Battalion 44.3 and 23.3. We had no doubt that the enemy wanted to penetrate our lines there to descend to Agra’E.
We had to rethink this new development. We had two choices. The first was to reinforce our defending units with the new forces that had a two days lull. Or we had to think of a drastic move that could fundamentally change the scenario. We could see Mount Maedenen from a distance of four- five kilometers. With binoculars, we could clearly see communication radio antennas fixed on the mountain. This was a command post of Colonel Kassa Gerbremariam, who directed the attacking units.
We also learned that the traitor, Tekie Keshi, was at the command post advising the colonel. We learned later from prisoners we took that Tekie was not only advising as a guide but also helping in identifying our units and their leaders. He could easily identify my voice and our other commanding officers leading the forces. That way he was giving valuable information about our strengths and weaknesses to the enemy.
To quickly assess the situation, the battalion commanders, Ali Manjus and Mekonne Tekle, and I had a brief discussion. We decided against reinforcing our defending units and against engaging the enemy head on. Instead we decided to find ways to ambush and destroy the command post of Colonel Kassa. We all agreed on that plan. But the question we needed to answer was how?
The northern side of the mountain was a heavily fortified walled cliff. Frontal attack while climbing the cliff would be costly, if not impossible. The eastern side of the command post was a route to Debat, where its cannons were positioned, and also a supply line for its ammunition as well as a route used to transport wounded soldiers. Because of this, there was continuous movement of enemy soldiers day and night on this route. Choosing between two evils, therefore, we chose to attack the command post on the eastern side.
Four years back, in 1975, enemy warplanes had bombed our arms depot in the area called Bileqat. They damaged some of our weapons. EPLF leadership decided then to move the depot from Bileqat to Deb’at. At that time, I was a member of the arms inventory team. We moved the depot to a lower part of Mount Maedenen in Debat, which was now used as the command post of Colonel Kassa. From that experience, I was very familiar with the area. I knew that the area had caves that could hide platoons or even a company. I also knew where the water sources were.
From this experience, we knew it would be impossible to attack by climbing Mount Maedenen from the north side. The only option was to use the caves in the eastern side of the mountain. We assembled a strong platoon led by Woldeab to march at night towards the northeast to hide in the caves that I knew from 1975. Equipped with radio communication, Woldeab’s platoon left that night. His instructions were to approach the cave stealthily and hide in complete silence. He was instructed to send three radio signals on his safe arrival at the cave.
After six to seven hours of walking through hills and cliffs, the platoon’s three-click radio transmission informed us of its safe arrival at the designated cave.
The enemy had stationed its reserve units around the command post. It was difficult for Woldeab’s platoon to raid the command post while this huge reserve was stationed there. The enemy could easily push the platoon over the cliff by using the reserve units. To ease the pressure for the platoon, we decided simultaneously to launch a frontal attack on the north side of the command post. This was planned ahead of time. The risk was that, after a tiring journey Woldeab’s platoon would be isolated and have no fall back position if the mission went wrong. Our unit assigned to attack from the north was a full battalion and had a fall back position if its mission did not succeed. The battalion had the option of large caves for a hideout. The mission of Woldeab’s platoon was much riskier.
Based on this plan, two companies and two platoons from Brigade 44.2, and a platoon from artillery Brigade 76, led by Tsegay Mehary and equipped with Browning machine gun, entered the cave at the base of the mountain at night. A driver, Debesai Gebremedhin, and an operator, Abed, as well as his helper Dawit, and I were the only people left behind at our temporary command post.
We anticipated that the enemy would launch an attack on the west side early next morning. We also expected Kassa would move the reserve units to be used in this attack.
We decided to instruct Woldeab’s platoon and the battalion in the north to resume attack the moment the enemy’s reserve units started to move towards the west to attack our other forces in the west side.
At dawn, as expected, enemy cannon, mortars, and doshka machine guns started roaring towards our units entrenched in HidaQ and on the outskirt of AgraE. In no time, the enemy soldiers started wave after wave of attacks on the west side. This resolute campaign was to break our frontline established to defend the town of Nakfa.
“Today is the last day to break through the AgraE frontline and move north on the Hamed Dibela road to enter Nakfa.”
This was the enemy’s instruction to its soldiers. At sunrise, its warplanes joined the attack. They rained their bombs indiscriminately in the vast area of our trenches. Whatever the cost, the Tegadelti did not flinch. Otherwise, if the frontline was broken, it would be dangerous. Our supply line and communication to our base would be broken and, worst of all; the town of Nakfa that we defended for two years would be at risk of falling to the enemy.
The July heat, enemy shells, and the warplanes’ napalm bombs turned the area into a burning oven. Blood from both sides muddied the vast ground. At 13:00, disappointed at the progress of the units fighting forwards, the enemy decided to move its reserve soldiers camped at Kassa’s command post to join the frontal attack.
With my few comrades, I was watching this move from my shadeless command post. I started patiently counting, saying “One company descended. Second and third company have followed….” I did this until the enemy’s force at the command post was at its minimum. When I made sure the soldiers around Colonel Kassa’s command post were at a minimum, I instructed Weldeab, Mekonen Tekle, Ali Majus, and Tsegai Mehary to start the planned ambush immediately.
Weldeab’s hideout was only 20 meters from the road that the enemy used for its logistics. It was frustrating to remain completely silent all day long in anticipation of a command to come. From the cave, they heard all of the enemy soldiers’ conversations. When the platoon received the word “to start the ambush,” it felt like a bird set free after being caged for a long time. In no time, they inundated the enemy, launching an attack using hand grenades and small arms on the unsuspecting command post.
Tsegay Mehary’s platoon was positioned facing the mountain range leading toward the HidaQ River. On an hilltop to the left of the river was the only narrow pathway for the enemy army to retreat to its command post. This pathway was blocked by Tsegay’s platoon’s firepower. We made sure that the command post would not get help from the units fighting in the front.
Simultaneously, the platoon that we hid in the cave located in the middle of Mount Maedenen started its ambush, climbing the treacherous cliff. They were able to block the western side of the enemy line that connected the post to the soldiers fighting in the front. This gave our units camped in the north side an opportunity to climb Mount Maedenen from the north side. The area was hilly and rocky. Therefore, mostly hand grenades were used on the attack. The area was not convenient to position heavy machine guns.
Installing itself in the belly of the enemy, and as soon as Woldeab’s platoon reached the highest part of Mount Maedenen, it faced a close-range, Kalashnikov shootout with Colonel Kassa’s immediate location. In the barrage of the Kalashnikovs, Woldeab was hit and martyred.
Undeterred, the platoon continued its attack. At that moment, Colonel Kassa was squeezed from three sides (from east, west, and north). He ordered quick backup support form his units fighting at the front, but the road to the command post was blocked by Tsegay Mehari’s platoon. Part of the units that turned back to save the post was decimated by Tsegay’s platoon, and what was left of it headed towards the water source.
Putting a small radio on my lap and using my binoculars, I was attentively following our gallant force’s ambush of the post from a distance. Using the PRC 77 radio, Abed, the operator, was in continuous communication with Ali Manjus and Mekonen Tekle. Debesai was on my side observing the area.
Suddenly he said, “Wedi Woldeyohannes, we have intruders,” and he picked up his gun quickly. I then saw fifteen enemy soldiers with one of their machine guns approaching our way.
Immediately, barrages of bullets started flying over our heads. We couldn’t tell where the bullets were coming from. We all started shooting, using whatever weapons we had. It was confusing. The fifteen enemy soldiers were equally confused with our sudden gunfire and, without firing a single shot; they headed west towards the water source. When members of our food logistics battalion heard the shootout, they started climbing towards us. They met the soldiers heading to the water source. They killed some and they captured most of them. We understood later that these soldiers were part of the units who were returning to help the command post but dispersed by Tsegay’s platoon.
The person who shot over our head was a young Tegadalay by the name of Girmay Haile. Before the ambush, Girmay was given a post little farther from his team. When the team left for the ambush to attack, they forgot Girmay. Unaware that he was left behind, Girmay remained, holding his post until 1400 (2:00 pm) the next day. When he realized he was alone, he decided to climb toward our post. Soon after he started the climb, he saw the fifteen soldiers approaching us, and he started shooting at them.
Girmay joined us and became part of my team as an operator for seven years. He later joined the fighting forces until independence. Debesai Gebermedhin (Wedi Arbaete) was on my team working as a driver since the famous strategic retreat. At that time, he was driving day and night: Seyidishi to Mai Atal, Seyidish to Embatkal, Seyidishi to Gaden.
I then joined our soldiers in Embatkala on our retreat on foot to Dirfo. Debesai however, found enemy soldiers blocked the road to Ghatelay. He burned his car and he retreated to Solomona on foot and joined us. Until 1985 he worked for me as a driver. In 1985 he was assigned to the mechanized 74th Division and became a tank driver. In our campaign to liberate Massawa in the operation called Fenkil, his tank was hit, and he was martyred in Dongolo. In his memory, I was told his burned tank remains on an hilltop at the side of the road at Dongolo. Our operator, Dawit, continued to fight as an operator and later became in charge of a station until independence.
The enemy units that were fighting westward with our forces at the Agrae frontline met fierce resistance from our forces. The units were also weakened from thirst and food shortages and realized that the Command post was no more. After losing the command post, the units retreated toward where the water was.
Our general army commanders were not aware of the initiative we took that destroyed the command post of the enemy coordinating the fight to advance to Nakfa. Our comrades, including the leader who was coordinating the defense of the frontal attack by the enemy in Agrae , Isaias Tewolde (Wedi Flansa), and the EPLF political office, who coordinated the general war effort, did not know about our operation.
Our ambush to take the Colenel Kassa’s command was difficult. It involved hand grenades in close contact. As a result, our units paid a heavy price. Numerous Tegadelti were wounded and martyred. These included twenty-three platoon leaders that lost their lives. Our attack started at 2 a.m. and ended at 7 p.m. It ended with our units standing at a site of Colonel Kassa’s corpse. Five hundred hand grenades were used in this attack. The Ethiopians claimed Colonel Kassa Gebremariam committed suicide, but the fact is he was killed in the intense fire exchanged between Woldeab’s platoon and his soldiers.
When we controlled the top of the mountain, enemy soldiers who were fleeing from the north side of the mountain and the units that were fighting in the west side to take Agrae regrouped at a place called Hidaq. The regrouped units were in disarray, fighting over water, killing some of their officers, and some even committed suicide.
The next morning we had radio contact with Isaias Tewolde (Wedi Flansa). Wedi Flansa saw that the units who were fighting them were retreating, but he did not understand why. He did not know what had transpired from our side. He said,
“The enemy units that are fighting us are retreating. Therefore, you need to coordinate an attack on Mount Maedenen tomorrow morning. Our general commanders are saying that they are sending a 37mm gun that can attack the mountain from a distance, and one or two tanks will be sent to you as well. So what do you think we should do?”
Wedi Flansa and our leaders were right to plan this because they did not know what we did. We did not inform them when we took the initiative of the attack. Before I could tell them the result, I had to receive complete report of the attack. Wedi Flansa’s radio communication arrived right about the same time I received all the reports of the attack I needed.
I told Wedi Flansa,
“We have finished Mount Maedenen. You are not able to see it, but enemy soldiers are assembled at the water source and they are in disarray. Many of their soldiers are killing themselves. Also, a helicopter was sited taking something from there.”
Hearing this he could not believe it. “Hang on. I will get back to you,” he said, and I knew he switched channels to inform our headquarters. Ali Said was in command of the left flank, the third front that included my unit. Wedi Solomon was commanding the Nakfa front from Apollo Mountain. I switched to their channel, and I was listening quietly as Wedi Flansa was informing them.
When Wedi Flansa said,
“Filipos is saying that his unit has taken Mount Maedenen,” Ali Said laughed and said “Maedenen is not a joke. He just came from the highlands. How does he know Mount Maedenen? He must be mistaken”
“That is what he is saying,” said Wedi Flansa. “Let’s switch to his channel to talk to him,” said Ali Said, not knowing that I was eavesdropping. I switched back to my channel quickly.
After saying “Hello,” Ali said asked me. “What is Wedi Flansa telling me?”
I said, “about what?”
“About Maedenen,” he said.
“Maedenen is in our control,” I said.
He said, “ Do you know what Maedenen is?”
I said, “Yes.” I took my map and I read him its highest peak. I added, “I am not new to the area. When I was a member of the ordinance department, it was on our route to Nakfa, and we were using it as our rest area then.”
Surprised he said, “Hold the line. I will get back to you.”
Ali Said and Wedi Flansa switched to Wedi Solomon’s channel. Wedi Solomon could not believe it either. The three of them came back to my channel, and Wedi Solomon asked me, “Do you really know Maedenen?”
I said, “I know it very well.”
He said, “I think you are wrong.”
I said, “Can you see the mountain from where you are?” He affirmed that he could. It was dusk. I told him, “Watch me shoot three RPG rockets from the mountain towards the west, where the enemy army is located.”
Ali Manjus was on top of the mountain, and I instructed him to shoot three RPG rockets. When Wedi Solomon saw that, he did not reply. Elated, he ordered all the channels to be open and broadcasted the popular song of the time, titled “All Sahel Was Freed,” to announce the victory.
Ali Said came back and asked me, “What is this riddle?”
I said, “I will tell you later, and you should you know that we also killed Colonel Kassa Gerbemariam, the commander of the army.” This was more pleasant news.
Our last task was to rout the remaining army grouped at the water source. We decided to attack the next morning from north and south of Debretlul. As planned, we attacked the next morning. Our units, however, were exhausted from thirst and hunger. Before the two units from north and south met, some of the enemy soldiers, including the traitor, Tekie Keshi, managed to escape.
The units we defeated were well-experienced members of the elite army that came for Ogaden and who were chosen for this special operation. All of its soldiers were veterans with twenty to thirty years of experience.
The late famous leader, General Aman Andom, groomed these units. Many of the soldiers killed themselves that night to avoid being taken alive. The next morning, we captured seven hundred of them. Sending a shocking wave through the enemy, this was its Fifth Campaign ended.
After three days, Wedi Solomon and Ali Said sent a car for me so that they could personally hear my full report. When I told them everything in detail, they were proud. At the same time, they were saddened by the death of the critical platoon leader, Woldeab.
The next day, Ali Said asked me to take him see Woldeab’s grave. We took a car up to lower part of Hidaq. We walked for four hours, passing by many corpses, and we reached Maedinen. Mekonen, Ali Manjus, and I had seen Woldeab’s grave few days earlier. We showed Ali Said the grave. As he placed an olive branch on the grave, Ali Said was overwhelmed. He could not hold his tears. We, too, followed him in tears. Every time I remember that day, I see Ali Said’s tears. I am in tears as I write this last sentence.
* The above story was first published on an a local magazine in Tigrnuya and translated by Menghis Samuel, courtesy of Tesfaye Gebreab. The author, Gen. Filipos Weldeyohanes, is the Eritrean Army Chief of Staff. With this piece, the General shed light over a decade old mystery behind the death of Col. Kassa Gerbremariam, a riddle that never got an answer until this date.
Trump implied that he saved Ethiopia from war but Ethiopia’s leader received the Nobel peace prize instead.
BY TESFANEWS *
Days after ordering the killing of Iran’s top general and threatening to hit the country’s military and cultural sites “harder than they have ever been hit before,” President Donald Trump has now turned his attention to the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump believes he should have been the winner after saving Ethiopia from war.
Why, what did he say?
“I’m going to tell you about the Nobel Peace Prize, I’ll tell you about that. I made a deal, I saved a country, and I just heard that the head of that country is now getting the Nobel Peace Prize for saving the country. I said: ‘What, did I have something do with it?’ Yeah, but you know, that’s the way it is. As long as we know, that’s all that matters… I saved a big war, I’ve saved a couple of them.”
Although he did not name the Nobel Peace Prize winner or the country, it is clear that Mr Trump was referring to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, won the Peace Prize last year for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea starting with accepting the international border ruling unconditionally, something his predecessor failed to accept.
He then signed a peace pact with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to end the hostilities that began with a two-year border war in 1998 and deteriorated into 18 years of stalemated relations in 2018.
Did Trump help broker peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Not really – the US’s influence in the peace talks was minimal. The United Arab Emirates, which has a lot of influence in the Horn of Africa, was key in helping to bring the two parties together.
One senior Ethiopian official, however, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that Mr Trump must be talking about Ethiopia and Egypt.
Last year, a dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over an upstream Nile dam escalated over the hydro-power barrage.
Ethiopia is building a $4 billion dam on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River, near the border with Sudan, saying the project is necessary to provide the country with much-needed electricity.
Egypt feared that the dam could stem the flow of the Nile, on which it depends for around 90 percent of its water supply.
Months of negotiations between the two countries failed to make any breakthrough, spurring fears of a military conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa until Trump intervened to diffuse the tension, meeting with foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan to discuss the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile.
“President Trump really believes he avoided a war as such … but that was not the case,” the Ethiopia official said.
Why did Trump make the comments now?
This is not clear, given that the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded on 11 October last year, and Mr Abiy gave his acceptance speech in Oslo, Norway, on 10 December.
Interestingly, Mr Trump has not officially congratulated Mr Abiy but his daughter, Ivanka Trump, who serves as his senior adviser, and the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have done so.
However, Mr Trump has publicly touted his achievements, including denuclearisation talks with North Korea Kim Jong-un, as warranting the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump is confused. PM @AbiyAhmedAli was awarded the @NobelPrize for his efforts to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, not stalled negotiations about a new dam on the Nile.
If they gave the Nobel for deals that didn’t happen, the Pres. would have a shelf full of them. #Ethiopiahttps://t.co/WhJ6nLvb6Z
— House Foreign Affairs Committee (@HouseForeign) January 10, 2020
President Trump met with Foreign Ministers and Water Resources Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in the White House on the sideline of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam meeting.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) – a huge hydro dam on the Nile River that is set to become Africa’s largest – is a national project fully financed by the Ethiopian people and government. From teachers and healthcare workers to the country’s poor farmers, an overwhelming majority of Ethiopians have contributed from their salaries or by sharing from their meager incomes.
For Ethiopia, where 54 percent of citizens live without access to electricity, completing this flagship project as soon as possible remains a priority. Unfortunately, since the start of the construction in 2011, the GERD has faced two major obstacles: domestic challenges and geopolitical realities.
Ethiopia’s Internal Challenges
The GERD project has been marred by corruption and financial mismanagement. It even saw the sudden death of a popular engineer who had supervised the first phase of the construction.
After Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to office in 2018, press freedom considerably improved. Media outlets started reporting corrupt practices related to the GERD’s construction and how the state-owned military-run conglomerate METEC misused hundreds of millions of dollars meant for the dam.
Today, some of the generals that administered METEC are in jail, and just recently, another round of accusations of corruption related to the dam’s construction was reported.
Here's the 2014 contract signed with METEC for the GERD Dam's Reservoir Cleaning obtained by @TheFintercept. It is worth 6 billion birr & as you can see is signed on the staff's behalf by Simegnew Bekele. METEC is accused of embezzling a large part of this money. #Ethiopiapic.twitter.com/930h94BRSh
These domestic challenges were mostly caused by the lack of institutions with the capacity to undertake such national projects. Indeed, when Ethiopia embarked on an economic growth strategy in the early 2000s, it did so by attempting to build institutions while simultaneously putting together and implementing economic plans that should be administered and regulated by these institutions.
The incompetence and mismanagement of the GERD’s construction, combined with the state’s heavy involvement in the economy without strong institutions, have been disastrous. Nevertheless, Abiy Ahmed’s administration seem to have rectified mistakes from past governments, and the construction is now back at pace.
While construction has been resumed and the dam is now for 70 percent completed, the time-frame to fill the dam and matters related to future water management issues, especially in cases of drought seasons, have not been agreed upon by Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.
In particular Egypt, the country with the Nile River’s lowest basin, has rejected Ethiopia’s compromises. The Egyptian government’s rhetoric on the dam is the external geopolitical challenge that needs to be settled.
Egypt relies on the Nile River for almost all of its water needs. Any intent by upper riparian countries towards the construction of dams or any desire to use these waters for irrigation projects has concerned successive Egyptian administrations.
Colonial-Era Agreements
To challenge the upper basin countries’ growing determination to utilize their fair share of Nile waters for power generation and beyond, Egyptian authorities have been citing 1929 and 1959 treaties that provided Egypt (and to a certain extent Sudan) with a monopoly over the Nile waters’ rights.
According to these treaties, any Nile basin state’s projects would require the full support of all riparian states, which of course includes Egypt. However, these old agreements were signed in colonial times, and Great Britain was the colonial power that controlled many of these states that signed such agreements.
Hence, after many years of negotiations, most of the countries where the Nile and its tributaries originate from have come up with the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) that called for equitable and fair use of the water resources.
The CFA was eventually signed by four of the riparian states (Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania) in 2010. While Kenya and Burundi joined the agreement in 2010 and 2011, Egypt and Sudan remain unsurprisingly opposed to the deal.
Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD commenced within the context of the CFA. Without much delay, discussions on the technical issues related to the dam’s construction, filling, and maintenance also started among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt in November 2011, a few months before Hosni Mubarak’s government was overthrown in Cairo.
Eventually, as political stability prevailed in Egypt, the negotiations continued, and the three countries in 2015 signed a Declarations of Principles, designed to reach consensus on the critical issues involving the GERD’s construction and completion.
Repeated Failures of GERD Discussions
Regardless of how many times Ethiopian, Sudanese, and Egyptian officials have met, no consensus has been reached and no agreements have been signed.
One success for Ethiopia has been the Sudanese government’s stance on the issue. Sudanese authorities not only agreed to Ethiopia’s determination to provide all of its 105 million citizens access to electricity but also noted that the dam’s potential to help manage recurrent floods would be tremendous.
Moreover, Ethiopia and Sudan’s technical teams asserted that the studies they conducted thus far confirmed that the GERD would not have any adverse effects on the amount of water that flows to Egypt’s High Aswan Dam.
A 2014 study by Asegdew Gashaw Mulat and Semu Moges finds the GERD's impact on the High Aswan Dam over Ethiopia's proposed 6 year filling period to be minimally invasive. Good luck
Unfortunately, with Egypt replacing its technical teams from time to time, both Ethiopia and Sudan had to renegotiate the terms afresh again and again. To make matters worse, Egypt has continued to come up with new demands that obliterate even already agreed upon principles from previous discussions. Ethiopia has called Egypt’s strategy a delaying tactic, and even after the involvement of the U.S. government and the World Bank, marathon discussions could not bear any fruit.
Successive regimes in Egypt that have been following policies that had isolated their country from Sub-Saharan African states are now facing difficult times. The consensus by most Sub-Saharan African states’ leaders was echoed by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, who some eight years ago stated that “No African wants to hurt Egypt. However, Egypt cannot continue to hurt Black Africa.”
Egypt’s Challenges
Indeed, Cairo’s insistence on relying on colonial-era agreements has presented two critical challenges to their Africa strategies. Firstly, upper Nile riparian states consider Egypt’s stance as impertinent towards Sub-Saharan African countries’ sovereignty.
Secondly, unless Egypt changes course and negotiates with Ethiopia and Sudan in good faith, it could further complicate future strategic cooperation efforts. In particular, Egypt’s demand to prolong and delay the GERD’s filling by more than a decade and using the counter agreement of allowing the dam’s completion as an insurance policy for its Aswan Dam, have enraged Ethiopians and Africans.
Moreover, Egypt’s domestic rhetoric on Nile water-related discussions to revive Egyptian nationalism and as a means to gain political legitimacy has damaged efforts of the technical teams of involved countries, including Egypt’s successive technical teams that seem to agree on certain terms today only to replace them with new terms after returning to Cairo.
To finally reach an agreement, Egypt must rely more on its technical experts and less on the influence of its politicians whose goals seem to be achieving political expediencies rather than breaking the impasse.
According to FAO, the latest Desert Locust outbreak is the worst in 25 years
A serious and widespread Desert Locust outbreak is destroying crops and pasture across eastern Ethiopia and neighboring areas of Somalia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea and northern Kenya with a high risk of further spread.
BY MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE
The Migratory Pests Control Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture informed that Desert Locust control operation is still underway in the Northern Red Sea Region of the country.
According to the information from the unit, so far more than 17,000 hectares of land infested with desert locust is treated in Northern Red Sea Region starting from November 2019.
The control operations are being conducted from five base stations namely; Marsa-Gulbub, Sheeb, Wekiro, Girat (Emahmime) and Foro.
When it comes to crop situation, crop harvesting is already started in Sheeb, Afabet and Wekiro and; Crops in Emberemi and Foro are at their fruiting stage. However, Karora and Emahmime crops are still under seedling and knee-height stages.
Based on the reports from the region, since ecological conditions are favorable for locust breeding, more infestation is expected. In addition, various swarms are still coming from different directions of neighboring to the Northern Red Sea Region.
According to Desert Locust Watch, the Desert Locust situation remains extremely serious in the Horn of Africa where it threatens pastures and crops in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.
Numerous swarms have formed in eastern Ethiopia and adjacent areas of northern Somalia. A number of large immature swarms moved south in the Ogaden of eastern Ethiopia and adjacent areas of central Somalia and reached southern Somalia, southeast Ethiopia and, on 28 December, northeast Kenya.
There is a risk that some swarms could appear in northeast Uganda, southeast South Sudan and southwest Ethiopia. Ground and aerial control operations continue in Ethiopia and aerial operations started in Kenya on 6 January.
Insecurity and a lack of national capacity have so far not allowed control operations in Somalia. During January, swarms will mature and lay eggs in the Ogaden and north central Somalia that will hatch and cause numerous hopper bands to form. There is a low risk of breeding in Kenya.
A potentially threatening situation is developing along both sides of the Red Sea where ongoing breeding is causing locust numbers to increase on the coasts of Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Widespread laying and hatching occurred in Saudi Arabia and gave rise to numerous hopper groups and bands, and a few immature swarms moved into the interior in late December. Hopper bands and swarms are also forming on the Red Sea coast in Yemen. More swarms are likely to form in both countries later this month.
A severe Desert Locust outbreak threatens rural food security across East Africa.
In Sudan, hopper bands are forming on the northern coast near Egypt and new swarms could form later in January. Breeding in adjacent areas of southeast Egypt is likely to cause groups to form.
A second generation of breeding is in progress and will continue on the central and northern coast of Eritrea where hoppers are forming groups, which could lead to hopper bands. Control operations are in progress in all affected countries.
Locust Outbreak, Most Serious in 25 Years, Hits East Africa
In this photo taken Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020, a Samburu boy uses a wooden stick to try to swat a swarm of desert locusts filling the air, as he herds his camel near the village of Sissia, in Samburu county, Kenya. The most serious outbreak of desert locusts in 25 years is spreading across East Africa and posing an unprecedented threat to food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, authorities say, with unusual climate conditions partly to blame. (AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi)
The most serious outbreak of locusts in 25 years is spreading across East Africa and posing an unprecedented threat to food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, authorities say. Unusual climate conditions are partly to blame.
The locust swarms hang like shimmering dark clouds on the horizon in some places. Roughly the length of a finger, the insects fly together by the millions and are devouring crops and forcing people in some areas to bodily wade through them. Near the Kenyan town of Isiolo on Thursday, one young camel herder swung a stick at them, with little effect. Others tried to shout them away.
An “extremely dangerous increase” in locust swarm activity has been reported in Kenya, the East African regional body reported this week. One swarm measured 60 kilometers (37 miles) long by 40 kilometers (25 miles) wide in the country’s northeast, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development said in a statement.
A serious and widespread #desert locust outbreak in some parts of Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea has caused panic in the #agriculture and aviation sectors.
“A typical desert locust swarm can contain up to 150 million locusts per square kilometer,” it said. “Swarms migrate with the wind and can cover 100 to 150 kilometers in a day. An average swarm can destroy as much food crops in a day as is sufficient to feed 2,500 people.”
The outbreak of desert locusts, considered the most dangerous locust species, also has affected parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti and Eritrea and IGAD warns that parts of South Sudan and Uganda could be next.
The outbreak is making the region’s bad food security situation worse, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has warned. Hundreds of thousands of acres of crops have been destroyed.
Already millions of people cope with the constant risk of drought or flooding, as well as deadly unrest in Ethiopia, extremist attacks in Somalia and lingering fighting in South Sudan as it emerges from civil war.
The further increase in locust swarms could last until June as favorable breeding conditions continue, IGAD said, helped along by unusually heavy flooding in parts of the region in recent weeks.
Major locust outbreaks can be devastating. A major one between 2003 and 2005 cost more than $500 million to control across 20 countries in northern Africa, the FAO has said, with more than $2.5 billion in harvest losses.
To help prevent and control outbreaks, authorities analyze satellite images, stockpile pesticides and conduct aerial spraying. In Ethiopia, officials said they have deployed four small planes to help fight the invasion.
But one approach backfired in Kenya in recent days when the agriculture minister asked people to post photos on social media of suspected locusts, or “nzige” in Swahili.
A mocking series of images of warthogs, cats, lizards and other beasts followed, with pleas for help in identifying them, and the appeal was ended.
At least ten people were killed Monday and scores injured when a seating area collapsed during a major Orthodox Christian celebration in Ethiopia, with fears the death toll could rise.
The accident occurred just before 8am (0500 GMT) Monday in Gondar, a historic city in the country’s north, where every year more than a million people gather for the epiphany festivities known as Timkat.
Two doctors at the University of Gondar Hospital told AFP that 10 people died when the spectator stands gave way suddenly at Fasilides’ Bath, where thousands typically gather to watch worshippers plunge into the holy waters.
“I can tell you up to now we have 10 dead. The number of injured is 100 or even 150,” said one senior doctor at the hospital. A second doctor confirmed the toll.
UNESCO added Timkat to its list of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity last month, and the event draws huge crowds from across Ethiopia and abroad.
Hundreds had been sitting on a tiered wooden structure for hours when it collapsed. Witnesses fleeing the scene said an untold number were crushed, suggesting the casualty count could rise.
Another hospital source said the injured were suffering from fractures and internal bleeding.
Emergency vehicles struggled to part the crowd to enter the site and take victims to the hospital.
Once the site was cleared, however, the festival resumed and lasted until mid-morning.
Samuel Baheru, who travelled to Gondar for Timkat from the capital Addis Ababa, said he was outside Fasilides’ Bath when the structure collapsed and watched bodies being carried out on stretchers.
“We heard a loud noise and what we saw coming out on the stretchers wasn’t pleasant. At first I panicked because my wife was inside, but then I found her and we continued with Timkat,” he said.
Tesfa Mekonnen, the city government’s head of peace and security for Gondar, told AFP three people had been killed and maybe 100 injured in the accident, including at least one foreigner.
But he insisted authorities were prepared for the popular event and that the seating was built by “professionals”.
“Youngsters wanted to participate so they climbed up, so there were too many and it was overloaded,” said Tesfa in Gondar, a city 700 kilometres (435 miles) north of Addis Ababa and the former seat of the royal empire.
No official visitor count to Timkat is kept, said Aschalew Worku, the city’s top tourism official.
But Tesfa, the security official, said UNESCO’s listing of Timkat had played a part in greater spectator numbers this year.
“As you know it has been registered as a world heritage event. Because of this, we have seen a bigger number of people this year,” he said.
At the hospital, the loved ones of victims huddled outside the emergency room in groups, some crying and others anxiously awaiting news from doctors.
One doctor, speaking on condition of anonymity because he did not want to publicly criticise the government, said the wooden seating structures — which are built and erected each year for Timkat — were a needless risk.
“I don’t want to say this is totally preventable, but this type of temporary structure should not have been built in the first place,” the official said.
“The security forces tried to avoid having people climb up, but you can’t control so many people,” he added.
Ethiopia is famous for its Orthodox Christian festivals, which draw worshippers and secular tourists and are central to its tourism industry.
Gondar is a popular stop for tourists travelling Ethiopia’s “northern circuit” to see the storied rock-hewn churches of Lalibela and the Ark of the Covenant that sits covered in Axum, which Ethiopians have long claimed is the original brought from Jerusalem by King Solomon 3,000 years ago.
Timket/Epiphany
A religious festival celebrated annually in Ethiopia by followers of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church commemorating Jesus’ baptism on the Jordan river. Although, the feast of epiphany is celebrated by many Christians,the Ethiopian festival is differentpic.twitter.com/PbCuSujdCH
The last woman standing. Fetlework (a.k.a Monjorino) Gebregziabher (L), Deputy Chair of TPLF and Minister of Trade and Industry, was one of the two remaining TPLF members within PM Abiy Ahmed’s cabinet. She got kicked out today.
The office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has today announced a fresh appointments of three ministerial positions. One of the three appointments saw Fetlework Gebregziabher, one of the the two remaining members of TPLF in the Prime Minister’s cabinet of 20, removed from her position as Minister of Trade and Industry.
Fetlework, (aka, Monjorino, a veteran member of TPLF and the front’s deputy chairperson, removed from her position which she held since October 2018 when women took up 50% ministerial position.
She is replaced by Melaku Alebel, who was serving as Industry and Investment Bureau Head with the rank of Vice President of the Amhara Regional State.
That leaves Yalem Tsegaye Assfaw, Minister of Women’s, Children’s and Youth, as the only member of TPLF in the ministerial position. Addis Standard has learnt that following the conclusion of its last emergency meeting, in which TPLF passed its final decision not to join the newly merged Prosperity Party (PP), its executive has submitted a letter to the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed cautioning against the removal of its members from federal government offices.
A team of six, three from TPLF and three from the Prime Minister’s office, was subsequently formed to look into TPLF’s objection of the removal of its members both from the federal civil service offices and the PM’s cabinet.
The removal of Fetlework also comes at the backdrop of increasing criticisms against alleged removals of Tigrayans from various offices of the federal government, a sign of the deepening rift between the administration PM Abiy and TPLF.
Today’s appointment also saw the appointment of Getahun Mekuria (PhD), who until today was the minister of of Innovation and Technology, as the incoming Minister of Education.
Dr. Getahun fills the post left vacant by Tilaye Gete (PhD) who recently resigned and has become the Deputy Permanent Envoy for the UNESCO with a rank of Minister Plenipotentiary at Ethiopian Mission in Paris, France.
The appointment of Abraham Belay (PhD), as the incoming Minister of Innovation and Technology is today’s third appointment by PM Abiy. Dr. Abraham was serving as the CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), where he was appointed in August 2018 replacing Azeb Asnake, the founding CEO of the state’s giant.
Abraham was once a member of TPLF but has left the party since.
The three Heads of States are due to hold talks on a “wide range of issues”.
BY TESFANEWS
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, and President of Somalia, Mohamed A. Mohamed have arrived in Asmara for Heads of State and Government meeting between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Upon arrival at the Asmara Airport, the two leaders was accorded warm welcome by President Isaias Afwerki, Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, and Presidential Adviser Yemane Gebreab.
Defence Minister Lemma Megersa has accompanied Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Asmara. President Mohamed’s entourage includes Mr. Abdi Ashir Hassen, Minister of Post, Telecommunications and Technology; and Dr. Nur Dire Hersi, Adviser for Foreign Policy.
Current Tripartite Summit is a follow-up to previous Summits that was held in Asmara (September 2018) and Bahri Dar (November 2018).
Relations between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia have continued to grow since the anti-Eritrea TPLF-led regime in Ethiopia was overthrown and replaced by PM Abiy Ahmed in March 2018.
Eritrean government spokesperson and Minister of Information, Mr. Yemane G. Meskel disclosed that PM Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias “will discuss further enhancement of bilateral ties and joint partnership schemes during the current visit.”
The tripartite agreement that was signed on September 2018 between these three countries was aimed at promoting regional peace and security.
The agreement also guarantees a comprehensive cooperation to build close political, economic, social and security ties between these three countries.
During their first tripartite meeting in Asmara, Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed agreed to consolidate their mutual solidarity.
They also pledge to respect each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and particularly, political independence of Somalia.
….
I will be meeting with my brothers, the leaders of Eritrea and Somalia. President Isaias Afwerki, President Mohammed Abdullahi and I will discuss on a wide range of issues. As always, I am certain our dear and welcoming city of Asmara will make our stay delightful. pic.twitter.com/R6cALsuGxc
PM @AbiyAhmedAli arrived in Asmara, Eritrea earlier this evening and was received by President Isaias Afwerki. During the stay, Prime Minister Abiy is will hold trilateral talks with President Isais Afwerki and President Mohammed Abdullahi of Somalia.#PMOEthiopiapic.twitter.com/Ie9ywVEGxL
— Office of the Prime Minister – Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) January 26, 2020
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed arrived in Asmara in the late afternoon hours today. The Prime Minister and his delegation, which include Defence Minister Lemma Megersa, were accorded warm welcome by President Isaias Afwerki on arrival at Asmara International Airport pic.twitter.com/xnIJOurSUz
President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Mohamed A. Mohamed, arrived in Asmara at 10:30 a.m today for Tripartite Summit between Eritrea, Ethiopia & Somalia. President Isaias accorded warm welcome to President Mohammed & his delegation on their arrival at Asmara Int. Airport pic.twitter.com/HWDdJwypU8
#Eritrea, #Ethiopia; Colorful pictures: President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed on a leisurely stroll in Asmara's main street – Liberation Avenue – after a fruitful meeting yesterday evening at State House on bilateral and other issues of mutual importance pic.twitter.com/EakEY5V4Qk
The two undesirable options for the TPLF right now are choosing between an Independent Tigray and to remain part of Ethiopia.
BY SENNAY ZEMEN
When the TPLF launched an armed struggle in Tigray in February 1975, a narrow left-wing nationalistic tendency was bubbling to the surface. Exactly one year after they took up arms, that is, February 1976, the TPLF leaders had their heads in the clouds and unveiled a new document, the Tigray Manifesto.
They declared that Tigray had nothing to do with Ethiopia and its people and vowed to establish their own nation, the Republic of Greater Tigray, which had its genesis in small groups of Tigray university students in 1974.
They were imbued with deep hatred and vindictive feelings against the people, especially, the Amhara, and the land, Ethiopia. Therefore, out of unbridled ambition to settle the old score with its old ‘enemies,’ they drew strategies that resonate with its future agenda.
Having failed to realize the huge gap between reality and fantasy, the leaders, mostly students from Addis Abeba university, drew a map for the cuckoo land based on irredentism and hundreds of years of history with the aim of reviving the ‘Axumite Kingdom’ and bringing an end to ‘centuries-old injustices’ of the Tigray people from Ethiopian imperial times.
No matter what angles were approached, the Republic was deemed impractical from the very beginning and challenged by Tigriyans and Ethiopians as well. Despite this, the TPLF has harbored unrealistic expectations and betrayed Ethiopia and its people since then. Most likely than not, the previous regimes of Ethiopia are more sinned against than sinning.
In spite of the fact that all Ethiopian armed groups had a common enemy, they were fighting against it independently and with different visions. However, as the fall of the Dergue was on the horizon, the formation of a multilateral alliance was the requirements of the times.
With an eye to the future, therefore, the TPLF and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) formed a coalition under the umbrella of the EPRDF in 1989. The main goal of the coalition was to set up a transitional government after the collapse of the regime so that the country would remain stable during the interim period.
The other two movements, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) entered into the coalition later on. It should be noted that though, the TPLF was militarily stronger than the other rebels, their contribution to defeating the Dergue cannot be ignored.
On top of this, the stunning military victory of the EPLF over the Dergue in Eritrea tolled the death knell for the military regime and, as such, its total defeat was an inevitable result of these successes. However, most Ethiopians are ignorant of the fact that the defeat of the Dergue was next to impossible without the military victories in Eritrea.
Despite this fact, for political purposes, Ethiopians are still kept in the dark about the EPLF’s military and other support to the TPLF and other rebels, as well as the role it played in the creation of the EPRDF. It goes without saying that it gives more comfortable to the TPLF and other chauvinistic Ethiopian politicians to live in denial.
Though the TPLF leaders had never had any interests other than establishing the Republic after the fall of the Dergue, they set out to cross the river with the coalition members in the same boat instead of burning it by swimming against the tide. To put it another way, they bowed to necessity when it was borne in on them that the military regime’s days were numbered, when they realized that declaring such Republic was not in favor of them due to internal and external pressures and when no strong movements existed in Ethiopia that could challenge their military supremacy in future, they decided finally to keep in touch with the times but hiding their true nature.
In such situation, the TPLF hogged its seat at the top of the heap and set to preside over the new coalition with the caveat that the constitution, federalism and political ideology including the right to secession would secure its domination over Ethiopian politics. Blinded by hubris, the TPLF, which represents only five million of the total population, sat in the driving seat with three ‘passengers,’ that have a combined population of at least 80 million people. In short, its military superiority gave it a tremendous leverage in dictating Ethiopian politics for 27 years.
From the onset, the three EPRDF members and the five non-members were being treated beneath contempt for 27 years. Given this fact, the TPLF has been neither a genuine nor a trustful political partner in Ethiopia. It started to rule the country with a duality mindset and dominated the entire political system without strong opposition from the three coalition members other than picayunish challenges against it.
With a ‘beggar my neighbor policy,’ it kept a tight rein on the coalition members and rode roughshod over the wishes and aspirations of the Ethiopian people for almost three decades. That having been said, the Ethiopian people had defied the TPLF dominated government right from the beginning. This is to mean that even prior to experiencing its harsh rule, they had never given its army a warm welcome when they were entering the capital, Addis Abeba, and other towns in 1991. So, it can be said with certainty that the TPLF had been a big fish in a small pond for 27 years.
Needless to say, the purpose of the coalition was primarily to help the coalition members establish a transitional government after the military regime removed from power. Though it was due to run out after Ethiopia held its first ‘election’ in 1995, it continued serving the minority group’s interests for 27 years. The TPLF blackmailed the three members into maintaining it in order to ‘bleed’ Ethiopia and plunder its resources like ravening wolves. It is to be recalled that though the regions were technically running their own internal affairs, the TPLF was calling the tune. Therefore, it is not a stretch to say that the three coalition parties and the five partners were totally subjugated to the wishes of the TPLF. What is more, officials from the three coalition members who were placed on high government positions were simply figure heads. Right from the start, the principles of justice and equality were totally abhorrent to the TPLF.
Since 1991, the anti-TPLF opposition was growing slowly in momentum before it elbowed the TPLF out of power in 2018. During its rule, it pursued ‘Tigray First’ pernicious doctrine which typified appropriately by corruption, arrogance, violation of human rights and high-handed attitude.
However, its hegemonic rule came to an end in April 2018 with no U-turn to power after four years of bloody people’s uprisings in many parts of the country, except in Tigray. The uprisings together with the internal struggle within the EPRDF set a stage for the reformist forces led by Dr. Abiy Ahmed to come to power. The home-grown reforms have already brought about a series of changes and revived hopes for the bright future of Ethiopia. Despite being beset with challenges and suffered greatly by strategy of destabilization of the TPLF, the winds of change have been swirling and moving forward unabated with silver lining.
The dominance of the TPLF over Ethiopian politics was confronted with serious headwinds and, as a result, the coalition members finally managed to shake off its rule. They cut the apron strings and changed their previous names to new one to keep abreast with the political changes and, after all, the armed struggle against the Dergue was ended 29 years ago. It is to be recalled that OPDO changed its name to Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) to the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP).
With respect to the TPLF, however, the name ‘TPLF’ is considered as the most hallowed one and directly linked with the goals and objectives of the Tigray Manifesto, not with Ethiopian agenda. So, the TPLF has never had any wish to change its name nor will change it in the future so long as the struggle for achieving the Republic has realized. Therefore, “aluta continua!” (the struggle continues!), has remained and will remain the slogan of the TPLF until it meets a sticky end. It is no wonder that betrayal, which is a byword for the TPLF, is embedded in its political culture.
Notwithstanding the fact that the five regions had been fighting for a place in the sun since the 1990s, the fate of the merger was fallen at the TPLF mercy. Rather than promising the regions the moon, it never had any willingness to include them within the EPRDF coalition despite the issue was being repeatedly raised in several occasions. However, the TPLF hogged the merger deliberately since it would conflict with its long-held political ambition and hamper its grip on power especially over the two coalition members. So, the duty of the five regions was remained to take the bullet for the TPLF and to stand behind it in order to offset the looming danger coming from the two big ethnic groups. Only when the reformist forces came to power and when the TPLF was no more calling the tune, did the coalition members agree to push ahead with a single party during the 11th Conferences of the EPRDF held in Awasa. The conference also bade farewell to the TPLF domineering attitude.
At the time when the reformist forces were pushing for a single party and putting the plan in motion, the TPLF resented the proposed plan and backed out unabashedly its previous commitment and made a brazen attempt to fail it. It started to sing a different song and rejected it both in word and deed and flew in the face of the wishes and expectations of the Ethiopian people. Ahead of the meeting of the EPRDF that was held in November 2019, it had already embarked on a campaign against the union. To counter further the gravity of the situation, the Executive Committee of the TPLF held a meeting on October 15, 2019 and issued a statement and strongly condemned the merger agenda and attacked the PM and his government in barbed words. But in point of fact, the statement doesn’t tally with the truth or hold water but was intended to buy time until it builds a strong force to deconstruct the country in cahoots with its allies. Indeed, the decision of the EPRDF has transformed the TPLF into an injured predator that mercilessly attacks anyone who approaches it.
Much to the chagrin of the TPLF, the merger agenda, which was systematically and deliberately suppressed for years, finally come to the surface. The Executive Committee of the EPRDF at its meeting held on November 16, 2019, passed a historical resolution in the teeth of strong resistance from the TPLF. In addition, on November 21, 2019, the Council of the EPRDF unanimously approved the decision of the EC during which the TPLF representatives refused to attend the meeting. The decision cleared the ground for the country to set off on a new journey towards a political and economic resurgence. Against this backdrop, the political parties of the three coalition members agreed to form a single party, the Prosperity Party, to govern the country on an equal footing together with other regions while safeguarding the interests of all ethnic groups equally and fairly. The TPLF has been bewildered by the wave of reforms and defied to admit the fact that the shoe is on the other foot.
Gone are the days when the TPLF alone was deciding the destiny of Ethiopia. What goes round comes round.
It stands to reason that the political parties of the five regions have fully backed the formation of the new party due to the fact they were being treated for long with utter contempt and, as such, had never had the right to participate in decision-making process that matters their own regions. It is strongly believed that the merger would guarantee non-interference in each other’s affairs, build mutual trust, promote a sense of belongingness, treat each other with respect and accommodate each other’s interests and concerns, to say nothing of its contribution to unity, peace and stability.
So, it is high time for the regional political parties to join the new party and press ahead with amendment of the constitution and federal system to level the playing ground for all ethnic groups who were deprived of their political rights for years.
When Ethiopians were looking ahead with optimism after the EPRDF passed a historic and landmark resolution to replace the ‘front’ with a ‘party’, the TPLF executive and central committee held an urgent meeting one after another in Mekelle from November 23 – 24, 2019, for the second time (first held in October) to oppose obstinately the decision of the EPRDF, which has laid bare the truth behind their real intentions.
For all intents and purposes, the adamant refusal marked the official end of the EPRDF coalition and, as such, the TPLF burned its bridges despite tomorrow is another day. Since then, its relationship with the coalition members and other political parties of the country had reached at an all time low just before it officially left the EPRDF in disgrace. Most unfortunately, the one-time ‘advocator’ of the merger has turned out to be the main enemy of the union. The wolf changes his hair, but not his nature.
In reply to the decision of the EPRDF, Dr. Debretsion, acting President and Chairman of the TPLF, held an interview with local media and mouthed the usual platitudes and prated on about the current political situation in Ethiopia. During his long and gibberish speech, he warned the people of Tigray that a black cloud looks a bit ominous in Tigray and, as such, should have to stay alert for any unforeseen circumstances. He tried to dupe the people into the belief that foreign forces including the USA, Europeans, Arabs and Eritrea are collaborating with the Ethiopian government to attack Tigray. But this is a white lie which is nothing less than figments of his imagination.
He also said “the TPLF would never allow any political party [the Prosperity Party] to stand against the hard-won political line of the Tigray people which include the constitution, federal system and revolutionary democracy ideology.” In general, his speech set a pessimistic tone for the Tigray region’s relationship with Ethiopia in future.
Taking into account the past history of the TPLF, which was full of intrigues and betrayals, its political program which embodied the constitution, federal system and revolutionary democracy, it’s hegemonic rule over Ethiopia for 27 years and its destabilization strategy that has been following to disintegrate the country, the political stand taken by the TPLF against the formation of a one party is not surprising. After the EPRDF had passed a decision for the merger, it left the coalition officially for good due to the fact that the new party has posed the greatest challenge to its political agenda. Furthermore, it rejected it, lest its deep-narrow nationalism would be enveloped in Ethiopian nationalism and its very survival and influence would be threatened and dwindled in due course.
We should remember always that “the water that bears the boat is the same that swallows it up.”
Despite its sanctimonious speech about Ethiopia, the TPLF was a quasi-Ethiopian political party. After its removal from power with humiliation, it kept itself aloof from the EPRDF business and viewed the adoption of new policies, decisions, or amendments by the government with a pinch of salt and as “an affront to the struggle of the Tigray people.”
It declared a de facto government and started to govern the Tigray region by the seat of its pants and completely on a different wavelength guided by the TPLF program and bombastic nationalism. Before it officially drifted away from the EPRDF in November 2019, it did all its best to fail the formation of the new party in collaboration with other opposition forces, but to no effect. So, it is no wonder that the TPLF had no any political will to work in tandem with the coalition members and, as such, the political position that it took to split off from the coalition government had already been in the pipeline.
In addition to the above briefly mentioned iniquitous practices, from December 28-29, 2019, the TPLF held a two-day public conference in Mekelle. The debate was revolved around the current affairs of Ethiopia in which the “violation of the constitution, federal system and the Prosperity Party” were in the heart of the discussion. Top TPLF officials including Dr. Debretsion, attended the conference. The aim of the conference was, as per usual, to seek support from the participants for their political decisions passed in October and November, respectively. At the conference, the TPLF leaders and the participants broke out into a long tirade against the reformist forces and reaffirmed further their strong opposition to the new party. The party members sang the praises of the TPLF’s “remarkable contribution towards the political and economic progress in Ethiopia in the past 27 years.”
In the mean time, they accused ‘the reformist party of leading the country to a political quagmire and economic stagnation as well as of being a “threat to the constitution and federal system” and vowed to fight it to the bitter end. The participants passed unanimously a nine-point strong worded statement and fully backed to the decisions of the Executive and Central Committee of the TPLF.
Following the conclusion of the public conference and at a time when the Executive Committee of the Prosperity Party was holding its first meeting to respond to the call of the times and chart out future courses of action accordingly, the TPLF called an urgent party conference in Mekelle for two days, from January 04-05, 2020. The conference was organized with similar agenda to that of the previous ones. That is, to revive the EPRDF or preserve the status quo. It was closed after the participants passed an eight-point resolution.
Among which, it has officially announced not to join the Prosperity Party, set to work against it in alliance with the federalist or other forces to eliminate it at all costs and decided to remain as part of Ethiopia only with certain caveats or preconditions. In implicit terms, it has drawn a red line over its future relationship with Ethiopia and warned it to keep its hands off Tigray which truly amounts to an invitation to confrontation.
The conference was concluded after the party members pledged to make themselves ready for any sacrifices whenever and wherever needed and after they jointly sang a war song. In short, the vainglory of the TPLF has put Tigray at stake.
The nearsighted decision has exposed the TPLF to the cruel fact that it has started clearing the ground for Tigray Manifesto. But, the fact remains that Tigray without Ethiopia is just like a bone without a flesh as well as the expense of abandoning Ethiopia is massive, not to mention impractical. In addition, the ‘history’ of Ethiopia is the history of Tigray and Amhara people. If the TPLF renounces Ethiopia, to which in heart and mind the people have always belonged to it, on what historical background should the other ethnic groups call themselves ‘We are Ethiopians,’ who could never trace their history, culture, religion, or tradition to the said ‘Ethiopian history.’
What is more, Tigray does not have a constitutionally defined border with its neighboring regions.
But the question remains: Which way Tigray? Will the TPLF bite the bullet and abide by the government policies and decisions gracefully if the Prosperity Party wins the 2020 election? Or, will Ethiopia accommodate ‘one country, two-political-systems’? Whatever the answer turns out to be, the arrogance of the TPLF is plunging the country into chaos.
It becomes apparent that there are irreconcilable differences between the reformist forces led by the Prosperity Party and the Federalist Group led by the TPLF, to be more specific, between promoters of Ethiopian interests and the TPLF interests. Since the hawkish TPLF politicians have chosen guns over butter, they will continue incessantly their sinister motives in scope and intensity to make a comeback to power, revive its past glory and lead the country on its own chosen path despite history is marching forward without making a U-turn. Notwithstanding what has just been said, the TPLF is still longing for the paradise lost which is really, to borrow a modern phrase, a cockamamie idea.
Finally, the TPLF has decided to ‘end its marriage’ with the EPRDF coalition members after declining to join the new Party due to the fact that its goals and objectives run counter to that of the Prosperity Party. This way or the other, the TPLF is on the horns of a dilemma in the sense that it has been caught between two equally undesirable options whether to choose an independent Tigray or to remain part of Ethiopian.
Of course, the TPLF agenda, an independent Tigray, is a dangerous chess move and its realization is a distant hope. While the second choice, ‘to be with Ethiopia,’ though it is realistic, historic and within the realms of possibility, it is against its avowed interests. Even if it wishes to go for it, it will be realized only with a painful price. In short, to be or not to be that is the question facing the TPLF as it confronts the gale-force winds of the reformist forces that enjoy great support from the Ethiopian people and international community. Put it briefly, the TPLF has turned into a prisoner of its own device.
Ethiopia- Eritrea trade deal that was under preparation for many months has been finalized and it is awaiting both countries’ finial decision or approval, Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) said.
Approached by The Ethiopian Herald, the Ministry’s Communication Affairs Director, Wondimu Filate said that MoTI has sent a complete Ethio-Eritrea border trade legal framework to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) in a bid to strike a trade deal soon having secured approval from both countries.
The legal document stipulates trade agreement that relies on export items and transaction currency, he said.
“When MoFA gives us green light, we will make the trade deal with our Eritrean counterpart. We have already expressed our interest and are waiting for their response.”
MoTI had conducted a study regarding the market interest or gap in Eritrea, the commodities and other products during the informal or elementary trading on the border while preparing the legal document by marketing experts, Wondimu mentioned.
The study focused on unilateral, bilateral and multilateral trading schemes in the market product interest between the two nations, he said. The cross border trade between Ethiopia and Eritrea will occur within a radius of 10 km from their shared borders.
It is a great opportunity to Ethiopians living in the border areas to trade with Eritreans as they have been carrying out various trades coming to the middle of the country wasting time and energy, he noted.
Therefore, MoTI has identified the preferable commodities and transaction currency of traders in the area.
The currency will be in when the two nations reach trade agreement; they will choose Birr, Nakfa or USD as a transaction currency, according to Wondimu.
More or less the new Ethio-Eritrea trade agreement has similarity with the existing transaction of other neighboring countries, he stated. As to him, Ethiopians and Eritreans have been trading informally in the border areas and the formalizing of such trade will build a booming business between the two sisterly countries.
Scholars have been suggested that trade relation between the two countries should base on set principles. The two countries have made public that series of discussions are going on to come up with a mutually beneficial trade deal.
Addis Ababa University School of Law Asst. Prof. Martha Belete once told The Ethiopian Herald that the deal ought to include area coverage, value cap, type of product and number of travels under the category of governing cross border trade of the pact. She also prefers the agreement shall have similarity to other border trade relations with neighboring nations.
The legal frame work that is sent to MoFA has incorporated the aforementioned suggestions, it was learnt.
Ambassadors of the EU member states and that of the UK have conducted a joint site visit yesterday at the first part of the road construction project that is underway between Nefasit and Dekamhare.
The road, once its rehabilitation is completed, will form part of the major transportation corridors under development that connects the countries of the region and will help reopen the main transport corridor between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
It is also expected to facilitate trade and development, boost economic growth and create jobs.
During the visit, the ambassadors also witnessed the deployment of 26 pieces of new heavy road construction equipment at the project that were procured through the EU Trust Fund for Africa.
Phase-1 of this EU-funded procurement worth €20 million is expected to be completed next month with the arrival of further construction equipment.
Following the historic peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia in July 2018, reconnecting the two countries via roads and providing Ethiopia access to Eritrea’s ports is a key priority for the EU as this will help to boost both countries’ economies, and generate job opportunities.
Such visit, however, comes after Human Rights Watch (HRW) accuses the block of paying “little real oversight” over the road project.
Rights groups have been critical of decisions to give development assistance to Eritrea unless it is conditional on ‘guarantees of democratic reforms’ in the country. For that, they often tend to blackmail donors by linking their projects with ‘forced conscript’.
The Eritrean government, however, routinely accuses HRW and Amnesty International in particular of promoting regime change agenda against it.
Last month, the HRW accusedthe EU of having ‘no real means of monitoring’ the above road project for allegedly using “forced conscripts” as workers.
European officials, however, responded by stating the fact that the €20 million fund was only meant to cover the procurement of material and heavy machinery of the project, not for paying the labor.
The EU, in fact, entered into an agreement with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) to implement the project on its behalf.
The road construction work, however, is carried out and monitored by the owner of the project, that is the Eritrean government, through the Ministry of Public Works.
The EU and UNOPS affirmed that they will continue to pay “particular attention to ensuring that minimum standards for health and safety of the workers involved in the road rehabilitation sites are ensured.”
The EU follows a dual-track approach with Eritrea both by strengthening political dialogue, notably encouraging political and economic reforms and improvement of human rights, as well as pursuing development cooperation to tackle root causes of poverty, and to reinforce the peace agreement and economic integration.
I was pleased to welcome the UK’s Red Sea and Horn of Africa Envoy to Asmara this week. We had good talks with the government as well as an interesting visit to Massawa to see the port. I hope to see more U.K. trade coming through here in future pic.twitter.com/kz3XoaDNoM
(@mfaethiopia) 
(@HannahGetachew) 
Timket/Epiphany 
(@made_in_addis) 
