President Isaias Afwerki departed to Ethiopia for a two-day summit with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed despite the coronavirus situation in both countries. Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and presidential advisor Yemane Ghebreab accompanied the President.
PM Abiy Ahmed received President Isaias and his delegation upon arrival at Bole International Airport.
At a luncheon hosted by President Sahlework, the two leaders briefly discussed bilateral cooperation and regional issues.
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, and President of the Oromia Region Shimeles Abdissa also attended the luncheon.
President Isaias Afwerki and his delegation also visited some development sites in Addis Abeba.
According to Yemane G. Meskel, the Eritrean Minister of Information and government spokesperson, the two leaders are expected to discuss bilateral ties, fight against COVId-19, fight against locust infestation, and other regional matters of mutual importance.
On his twitter page, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirms the two leaders will be exchanging “bilateral and regional issues as well as the challenges the two countries are currently facing as a global community.”
The COVID-19 cases in both countries are relatively small. While Ethiopia announced a state of emergency to control the spread of the pandemic, Eritrea entirely bans flights and imposed a statewide stay-at-home order.
As of May 3rd, the COVID-19 case file for each country shows Ethiopia with 133 confirmed cases, 75 recoveries, and 3 deaths, while Eritrea with only 39 confirmed cases, 26 recoveries, and 0 deaths.
Political observers, however, attached President Isaias’ abrupt visit in the midst of pandemic with the looming ‘constitutional crisis’ in Ethiopia following the postponement of the general election ‘until further notice’.
It was originally scheduled to take place sometime in August this year.
This is the fifth time for President Isaias to visit Ethiopia since the two countries signed the historic peace agreement in 2018. His last visit was in late December 2019.
President Isaias Afwerki departed to Ethiopia this morning for a two-day Summit with PM Abiy Ahmed. The two leaders will discuss bilateral ties, fight against COVId-19/locust infestation & regional matters. Presidential entourage includes FM Osman Saleh & Pre. Adviser Yemane G/ab pic.twitter.com/J7naJkyKKI
Good to welcome again President Isaias Afwerki to #Ethiopia for a two-day meeting where we will be exchanging on bilateral and regional issues as well as the challenges we are currently faced with as a global community. pic.twitter.com/jbUmLj3KbN
While singular focus of all countries remains, invariably, the threat of C0VID-19, current & short-term forecasts for Desert Locust infestation is grim for Horn/East Africa region. (Sudan & Eritrea seem to have controlled most swarms with intensive surveillance & control measures pic.twitter.com/QLMltHQoOW
A court in the Amhara region of Bahir Dar has sentenced former communications minister and close ally of late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to six years in prison for corruption. Ex-TIRET CEO, Tadesse Kassa (R) also sentenced to 8 years in jail.
An Ethiopian court on Friday convicted a former cabinet minister on corruption charges and sentenced him to six years in prison.
The conviction comes amid a push by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to crack down on corruption in the public sector. Several former senior government officials and executives of state-owned enterprises have already been arrested and jailed.
Bereket Simon was minister of communication from 1995 to 2012 under the then prime minister Meles Zenawi and was widely considered to be his right-hand man.
Bereket co-founded the Amhara region’s public investment fund, TIRET Corporation, which he led until 2017.
TIRET owns companies in the brewing, construction, transport, and logistics sectors.
He was arrested last year on suspicion of mismanagement of public funds while he was heading the fund.
Bereket was found guilty on two counts, of corruption and mismanagement of the institution, court spokesman Tazebachew Tassie said.
The court in Bahir Dar, the capital of Amhara, also convicted Tadesse Kassa, a former TIRET board member, on the same charges.
Lawyers for Bereket and Tadesse could not immediately be reached for comment.
Bereket Simon, former Ethiopian communication minister, convicted over embezzlement of public funds, abuse of power
Bereket Simon, who was minister of communication from 1995 to 2012, was sentenced after conclusion of a trial by the Amhara Regional State Supreme Court on Friday. pic.twitter.com/UjEkdhdXBm
“We wanted to give diplomacy a chance in Khartoum and Addis Ababa, before the outbreak of the all-out war between the two countries” – Sudanese army spokesman, Brigadier Amer Muhammad Al-Hassan
A Sudanese military spokesman blamed militias supported by the Ethiopian army for the attack.
The Sudanese Army announced on Friday that Khartoum is engaged in continuous diplomatic talks with Ethiopia to limit the tensions on the border, warning of the “outbreak of all-out war” between the two countries.
Commenting on the clashes between the two parties yesterday evening, Sudanese army spokesman, Brigadier Amer Muhammad Al-Hassan, said, “the contacts between Sudan and Ethiopia to calm the situation on the border strip have not stopped.”
Al-Hassan said: “We wanted to give diplomacy a chance in Khartoum and Addis Ababa, before the outbreak of the all-out war between the two countries.”
He explained that “the recent attacks on Sudanese lands by the Ethiopian army and militias are a violation of previous agreements between the two countries.”
Al-Hassan called on the Ethiopian side to implement what was previously agreed on the demarcation of the borders between the two countries, and the deployment of forces from both sides of the border, and pointed out that the conditions on the borders are now “cautiously calm.”
The army spokesman indicated that Sudanese military reinforcements on the eastern border are not far from the site of the events.
On Thursday evening, the Sudanese army announced the death of an officer, the injury of 7 soldiers, and another loss, in addition to the killing of a child and the injury of 3 civilians, as a result of attacks by an Ethiopian militia supported bythe country’s army during the past two days on border areas between the two sides.
There was no immediate comment from the Ethiopian side about the Sudanese army’s accusations.
Ethiopia, no more stupid wars and adventurism. This is not the time or even to Ethiopia’s interest given Egypt is waiting next door. Ethiopia alienating Djibouti, then Kenya and now Sudan is unhealthy!! pic.twitter.com/eHMoYYrfYR
Sudan has summoned the Ethiopian embassy’s chargé d’affaires over a border attack by suspected Ethiopian rebel fighters that killed and wounded several Sudanese army personnel and civilians, Khartoum said in a statement on Saturday.
Thursday’s attack targeted a camp in the eastern city of al-Qadarif, the official SUNA news agency said.
A Sudanese military spokesman blamed fighters “supported by Ethiopia” for the attack, according to SUNA.
There was no immediate comment from Addis Adaba.
Some Ethiopian groups have used farmland in the Sudanese al-Fashqa border region for decades. The former Sudanese government of deposed veteran leader Omar al-Bashir turned a blind eye, but the current transitional authorities in Khartoum are trying to expel the groups.
On Friday, Sudan’s army spokesman, General Amer Mohamed al-Hassan, said in a statement that one Sudanese officer had been killed and seven other soldiers injured in the attack.
“We decided to give chance for diplomacy in Khartoum and Addis Abbas to calm the situation on the border strip before it turns into an all-out war between the two countries,” said al-Hassan.
He added that the recent attacks on Sudanese territory by the Ethiopian army and armed groups violated previous agreements between the two countries.
Al-Hassan called on Ethiopia to abide by its agreements with Sudan on their mutual boundaries, along with deployments of official forces on either side of the border.
Sudan and Ethiopia have been engaged in continuous talks over the demarcation of the borders between the two countries.
According to Sudan’s foreign ministry, the attack happened while Khartoum was preparing for a meeting of a high-level joint committee on border issues.
On the invitation of Sudan’s President of Sovereign Council, LT-General, Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan, President Isaias Afwerki is paying a three-day working visit to Khartoum.
Upon arrival at Khartoum International airport, the President and his delegation were received by Gen. Abdel Fatah al Burhan and a number of senior government officials.
The Eritrean presidential delegation includes Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and Presidential Adviser Yemane Gebreab.
According to the Information Ministry, the current visit to the country is expected to focus on the enhancement of bilateral ties as well as the consolidation of ongoing endeavor for regional cooperation and integration.
President Isaias will meet the Deputy Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Lt-General, Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, as well as Prime Minister Dr. Abdulla Hamdouk during the course of the visit.
Three-way talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and filling its reservoir has reached its most perilous point after the parties failed to reach an agreement and Ethiopia says it will start filling the reservoir this year.
Egypt fears the Dam will allow Ethiopia to control the flow and wants the reservoir filled only after an agreement is reached.
A stable flow of the Nile waters is a matter of survival for Egypt as it relies on the river for 90% of its water.
Ethiopia also sees the dam as a matter of national sovereignty.
The Nile political crisis left Sudan between a rock and a hard place.
In their first meeting in Khartoum today, President Isaias Afwerki & President Abdel Fatah al Burhan reviewed progress in bilateral relations & regional cooperation since the changes in Sudan & the region. pic.twitter.com/MMREGjdCKH
The two leaders agreed to bolster joint efforts to advance the ambitious plans of the two countries for bilateral relationship as well as regional integration. President Isaias Afwerki & his delegation were received at the airport in Khartoum by President Alburhan pic.twitter.com/xEIzFgyYGh
The TPLF will soon realize, if they have not already, the true meaning of Napoleon Bonaparte’s regrets. “Death is nothing, but to live defeated is to die every day.”
BY SENNAY ZEMEN
In spite of many indelible facts, the TPLF leadership has been deluded into believing that ‘Eritreans treat Tigryans with contempt.’ This fictitious threat has been deeply rooted in their political culture and, as a result, impacted negatively their relationship with Eritrea and many other political parties during their 27-year unbridled power.
They were throwing dust in the people’s eyes to make them believe that Eritreans despise them and massaging an imagined fear and non-existent grievances to fuel enmity between the two people. The rhetoric of hate speech was aimed at gullible people who were so worried about their deplorable living conditions.
There is no doubt that the TPLF leaders have borne grudges against Eritreans which are manifested in speeches made repeatedly on different occasions. To mention but a few: In the early 1990s, Abbay Tsehai, one of the politburo members of the TPLF and designer of the evil strategy of the TPLF, was attacking Eritreans with an aggressive tone and offensive languages at workshops, seminars, or meetings. His speech set a pessimistic tone for the future relationships between Eritrea and the TPLF. He was telling the participants that
“those [Eritreans] who are calling us dirty and lousy people will continue to say so unless we work hard and lift our people out of poverty through developing agriculture and industries so as to show them that you are better than them in every way.”
In other words, “people despise us because we are poor” Isn’t this a hate speech linked to an inferiority complex as well as an act of revenge?
Another example was, just a few days after the TPLF declared war against Eritrea, the then President of the Tigray region, Gebru Asrat, one of the notorious advocators of the war, made an acerbic speech on May 28, 1998, in front of large crowds to fan their feelings of hatred against Eritrean and said:
“Eritreans treat you with derision. One cat for 50 mice; a fly killer spray for thousands of flies. Therefore, the war must continue whatever price it takes.”
His speech was a clear manifestation of the TPLF’s harbored hatred against Eritreans for years. In addition, he revealed the secrets behind the war that it had nothing to do with border dispute other than political payback.
Against the deep hatred backdrop, no sooner had the war started than the TPLF expelled more than 80,000 Eritreans from all ages and walks of life from Ethiopia without giving much thought to future negative consequences. They were expelled in a dehumanized way and with nothing more than the clothes on their backs.
Worst still, Eritrean women who married Tigrayns were also expelled leaving their beloved ones behind. The war was fueled by hatreds that decades-old and taken as a good opportunity for the TPLF to settle the old account with Eritreans and gloat over their misfortune or suffering. The Eritreans never committed any crime, except for being Eritreans and the ‘colour of their eyes is not likened in Ethiopia. Without a doubt, the expulsion clearly manifested the TPLF’s extreme hatred for Eritreans.
It is a sad fact that hate speech has become the music in the TPLF’s ears. For instance, during the 45th anniversary of the TPLF held in February 2020, Sebhat Nega, a member of the politburo of the MALELIT, made a speech in front of mass rally and said without shame “they call you [Tigrayans] disgusting and loathing people; they regard you as contemptible people.” Isn’t this a speech coated with an inferiority complex?
It is a shame for the TPLF to air live on its TV such as indecent and scurrilous speeches. Imagine how people would feel when a ‘trusted politician,’ uttered such hate speech in front of thousands of gatherings. But, the Tigray people are not so credulous as to believe the hate propaganda of their leaders.
It stands to reason that the noxious speech, which is the index of the mind of the three TPLF and other leaders, bears similar vocabularies of inferiority complex intended to inculcate feelings of isolation among the people, arouse narrow Tigray nationalistic egoism, develop a cult of personality around the political elites and instill chauvinistic influences in the society. They are trying hard to ‘trickle their hatred down’ the impressionable minds at seminars, meetings, and gatherings in Tigray and other places. In short, the speeches, which have ever been uttered by human lips in this day and age, are utterly abhorrent.
The hate speech was used as a strategy to achieve many objectives. To name just a few: to isolate the people of Tigray from Eritreans/Ethiopians; plunder Ethiopian wealth by crying crocodile tears and by presenting Tigray as a war-torn and a poverty-stricken region; motivate people to work hard in order to boost fast economic growth; make Tigray one of the richest region in the country at the expense of millions of poor Ethiopians who are still living in abject poverty; and, arouse narrow nationalistic feelings to pave the road for the Republic.
Then and only then can the people of Tigray trample their feet on the heads of their ‘enemies.’ In short, the whole strategy was to wreak vengeance on Eritrean and Ethiopian people and fulfill the imperial ambition.
Though the TPLF robbed mercilessly Ethiopian wealth for 27 years and build a huge economy in Tigray through EFFORT, second to Shiek Alamoudi, a Saudi billionaire, they have not yet freed themselves of complex feelings even after they have sucked Ethiopian wealth at an alarming rate. Of course, the new Emperors had at their disposal plunder and tribute amassed through shenanigans. But the question is: has the TPLF strategy paid off? The answer is yes and no.
The TPLF elites and war generals including their families have emerged as wealthy people in Ethiopia while millions of Ethiopians have become indigent and many regions are left in the dust. They are trying to hide their corrupt practices under the veneer of ‘Tigray people paid the heavy sacrifice for Ethiopia.’
In the subsequent years that followed, the TPLF continued its aggressive acts and wave of atrocities against Eritreans in Badma in scope and intensity. Using threat of force, the police and militia of the TPLF expelled Eritreans from their homes, banned them from tilling their lands, looted or set ablaze their properties with the aim of compelling them to leave their villages where they had been there for decades. Despite its frivolous political maneuvers, the TPLF clung to its old mindset and defied negotiation as a means to solve border claims. The tension escalated to a new height, worsened the gravity of the situation and the mission of the joint committee finally reached the end of road.
The intimidation and harassment against Eritreans became an unstoppable snowball and stoked political tension. However, Eritrea, unfazed by the provocative and aggressive acts of the TPLF, displayed remarkable phlegm in the hope of defusing the tensions and averting the threat of war, which was on the horizon. Amid increasing atrocities against Eritreans in the occupied land, incursions into its sovereign territories, the intensive hostile campaign against its people living in Tigray and other places, the simmering tension that was developing steadily finally boiled and turned to border accident.
On May 6, 1998, the TPLF militia ambushed and killed seven from Eritrean armed forces who were on patrol duty, that is, on the track of jihadists who were crossing from Sudan. This incident had greatly impacted the magnitude of the crisis and led to a violent face-off between the two armies at the border. Unfortunately, the incident was taken as a golden opportunity for the TPLF and deployed a huge army in the contested territory where it soon became a battleground.
Eritrea was on the cusp of state-building and collecting bodies of its fallen martyrs buried in many war-fronts and laying them in honor since they were not accorded proper funeral honors during the armed struggle in the hope of no more Eritreans would die in a battle as the war was drifted into in history. However, few days after the incidents took place and when the Eritrean delegation was in Addis for a meeting, on May 13, 1998, the hawkish TPLF politicians jumped the gun and declared all-out offensive amid peace efforts was underway to de-escalate the tension.
The casus belli of the invasion was the more than three-decades-old illegal land claim and through which to gain other political ends. The Badma incident was indeed a pretext for the TPLF to cover expansionist policy. Befuddled with arrogance and contemptuous attitude, the TPLF made a Himalayan blunder, or a strategic error, in declaring war against its ‘brothers-in-arms,’ who brought them up to political power in Ethiopia with their military ingenuity and blood.
The decision to go to war flew in the face of joint cooperation made between the EPLF and TPLF to defeat the Dergue, of the historical relations between the two neighbouring people and of Eritrea’s vision of building a shared future with Ethiopia and other neighboring countries. The TPLF ignored completely the fact that war would make a rod for its back in the future and went to it without a slight consideration for future political, economic, and social consequences of both people.
Worst of all, the war tore the aspiration of the people to shake off poverty and to live in peace to shreds. It also left a black mark on the history of the people and the legacy of hatred. Despite Eritrea attempted to dissuade the TPLF from entering into conflict, the war was viewed as a political choice for their political agenda and a panacea for their psychological ills. It is time to put it on the line that the TPLF’s empty rhetoric that it had ‘sincerely’ backed Eritreans for their independence was merely an imposture. Behind the façade of supporting their cause, a shocking political agenda of the TPLF was hidden.
Failing to draw a hard lesson from past mistakes of its predecessors, the TPLF was hell-bent on winning the war at all costs using a military infantry tactic of human wave attack. The other reason that fooled the TPLF was that Eritrea had disbanded its hard-bitten army and replaced it with Warsay, young and new Eritrean army. It also bragged that it could win the war without much difficulty because it knew very well the tactics of the EPLF to the extent that “the TPLF army will lunch in Asmara,” as if they were walking and singing behind a marching band.” Not only this. Ethiopian ambassadors abroad invited international diplomatic corps in their respective receiving states to announce that “Ethiopian forces would enter Asmara within hours.”
The TPLF launched total war against Eritrea and its people believing that the Eritrean army would easily be brought under. It hoped also that its army would do wonders for the war employing a huge army and advanced weapons. After the offensive started, the heroic Eritrean army faced wave after wave of enemy troops and it was most unfortunate to see when thousands of Ethiopian army were dropping like flies, not by the spray of flies as Gebru Asrat once said, but by spray of bullets, for a nonsense war just to fulfill the TPLF’s political ambition and cupidity. After Eritrea made some changes in its military strategy, the TPLF ‘won’ Pyrrhic victory with much fanfare in controlling of Badma.
The TPLF floundered through the swamp of war for two years to achieve its political agenda but turned out to be a phantom thanks to the Eritrean people’s grit and determination in the highest form. The dream of ‘eating lunch’ in Asmara, winning the war, and establishing the Greater Republic of Tigray also vanished like a mirage. Shame on the TPLF! They confused themselves and misled their ambassadors. War is no picnic. The TPLF political leaders and other war generals were kept on tenterhooks to receive a telephone call from Asmara. To the TPLF dismay, they were forced to hang their head in shame for their idiotic war plan. History repeats itself endlessly for those who are unwilling to learn from the past.
It should be noted that the military strategy of the TPLF went up in smoke, which was destined for failure only because when they were making a prognosis for winning the war, they left out to include the war-experience of Eritreans gleaned from 30-year of bitter armed struggle, the grit and strength of mind of Eritreans, their unyielding courage in the face of hardships and of being true-blue patriots. If that was not the case, the Eritrean struggle would have been defeated much earlier and the TPLF wouldn’t have come to power.
The TPLF faced with a dilemma after all its gambits ended in smoke. Of course, the war put a lot of strain on its shaky economy, which has been heavily reliant on foreign loans and aid. Besides, It suffered unbearable human cost and material devastation. The two-year intensive war and 18 years ‘no peace, no war’ situation brought the TPLF up against the realities that military success was next to impossible other than admitting humiliation and accepting the international call ending the war. Finally, Eritrea and the TPLF agreed to end the war peacefully in Algiers, Algeria, in December 2000. In short, the internal and external pressure and untiring peace efforts made by some African leaders and international community saved the situation. Eritrea expresses its deep sense of undying gratitude to those who made sincere and profound efforts to end the two-year senseless war.
Against the peace agreement backdrop, the Border Commission, which was established on the basis of Algiers Peace Agreement, gave its final and binding ruling in 2002 and awarded Badma to Eritrea and, as a result, the more than three decades political mumbo jumbo of woyane has come to an end. The law sometimes sleeps, but it never dies. Flying in the teeth of Eritrean people, Ethiopian constitution, AU Charter and the international tribunal ruling, the TPLF defied the ruling of the Commission and has still occupied contemptuously Eritrean territories, which is tantamount to an invitation to war. Besides, the ruling made the TPLF eat crow in front of its people, Ethiopian people, and the international community that the implausible story of Badma was nothing less than a political humbug.
Without reciting chapter and verse of the two-year bloody war (1998-2000), the TPLF launched three large-scale military offensives with avowed intent was to dance on the Eritrean grave, impose a regime change, install a puppet government, capture Assab and to redraw a new map of Tigray by annexing Eritrean territories which included western part of Eritrea, northern part of Seraye, vast lands of Akeleguzay linked historically to the Axumiate period, and from Red Sea coast to the border of Djibouti including Assab and invoke Article 39 to establish the Republic of Greater Tigray and to kiss Ethiopia goodbye. In the true meaning of the word, the sole aim of the TPLF’s military offensive was to decolonize or swallow up Eritrea. In the TPLF mind’s eye, they could see a more powerful and prosperous Tigray with access to the Red Sea. Despite this beautiful illusion, the Republic has not a wide currency all over the people of Tigray.
When the TPLF faced with the reality that winning the war militarily was beyond the realms of possibility or highly unlikely, it devised, few days after it signed the peace agreement in Algiers, a clever ruse to bring Eritreans to their kneel, which was indeed a real delusion, through economic sanction and containment policy, to isolate Eritrea diplomatically from neighboring countries and international community with the final objective was to reconsider its independence. According to woyane’s visionaries, Eritrea would be buckled under pressure of economic sanction and diplomatic isolation. To achieve this end, it colluded with some leaders of the region, Western countries and international organizations.
The IGAD and the AU did little-to-nothing to stop the war but instead conspired with the TPLF and Western allies to impose unjust sanction (2009) on Eritrea without an iota of truth just to satisfy the TPLF’s expansionist strategy. Their betrayal to the Eritrean people has been a blot on their respective Charters escutcheon for years to come. Against their expectations, the Eritrean people remained steadfast and braved the wicked plan whereby the TPLF hoisted by its own petard, meaning that, it was caught in the trap that it prepared for Eritrea. Other than Eritreans, nobody thought that Eritrea would beat the odds and survive the huge pressure bearing down on it for 20 years.
Finally, this month twenty years ago, after the TPLF failed repeatedly to break through the strong Eritrean defense lines to capture Asmara, it launched a desperate military campaign to capture Assab. It knew it wasn’t likely to win the war, but decided to chance its arms. The TPLF army met its Waterloo after its algorithms to capture the Eritrean port turned into a complete fiasco. The gallant Eritrean army bravely repulsed its army back and put them to rout. In addition, it was forced to end its military operation in Eritrea after facing a painful and disastrous defeat. Eritreans again embroiled themselves in a 20-year war against their will and paid heavy prices to uphold the sovereignty of their country and defend their dignity. Once again, Eritrea, the land of tenacity, becomes a graveyard for hundreds of thousands of woyane’s army. Indeed, the TPLF is a real thorn in the Eritrean flesh and will continue to remain so until it goes to hell in the handcart.
President Isaias Afwerki departed to Cairo this morning for a three-day working visit.
During his stay in Egypt, President Isaias will discuss with President Abdel Fatah Al Sisi and other Egyptian officials on bilateral and regional issues of interest to the two countries.
On arrival at Cairo International Airport, President Isaias was accorded a warm welcome by senior Egyptian officials.
The Presidential delegation includes Mr. Osman Saleh, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Presidential Adviser Mr. Yemane Gebreab.
In the last few weeks, President Isaias made a number of consultations with leaders of Ethiopia, and Sudan on issues of boosting peace and cooperation in the region.
President Isaias conducted similar visits to Sudan last week.
President Isaias Held Talks with President Al Sisi
President Isaias Afwerki met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at Al-Itahaidia Palace in Cairo this morning.
(Shabait, July 06) – President Isaias Afwerki in the afternoon hours of today, 6 July, met and held talks with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt at Al-Ittihadia Palace in Cairo. The two leaders held frank and extensive discussions on bilateral relations and regional developments.
The two sides agreed to promote comprehensive bilateral cooperation. As regards regional development, the two leaders recognized that challenges and tensions are casting their shadow over vast opportunities which remain untapped, despite their undisputed benefits for all countries.
The two leaders agreed to work together to foster mutual understanding and concrete actions to protect the interests of all parties and advance common interests.
The meeting was attended by Mr. Osman Saleh, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Presidential Adviser Mr. Yemane Gebreab and Ambassador Fasil Gebreselasie on the Eritrean side and Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Sameh Shukri, Intelligence Chief, Mr. Abbas Kamel and Minister of Agriculture Mr. Mohammed Marzuq.
President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi received on Monday Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afwerki at Itihadiyah Presidential Palace to discuss regional developments and bilateral relations.
The guest president is on a three-day visit which will include a meeting between officials of both countries to exchange views on developments in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea as well as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The last visit by the Eritrean president to Egypt took place in June 2019. In their meeting, President Sisi stressed the importance of setting forth well-defined plans to push forward Egyptian-Eritrean cooperation at various levels.
Sisi also underscored the need to overcome any obstacles to mutual cooperation, especially in infrastructure, energy, healthcare, trade, investment, and agricultural sectors.
Welcoming the Eritrean president, Sisi lauded the robust historical ties between both sisterly African nations, Presidential Spokesman Bassam Rady said.
He also asserted Egypt’s keenness to keep up the current momentum for stronger mutual ties, establish sustainable partnerships and maintain mutual coordination on regional as well as African issues, especially under Egypt’s current presidency of the African Union (AU), Rady added.
For his part, Afwerki praised Egypt’s vital role to drive the development process and maintain peace and security in Africa, highlighting his country’s commitment to further cooperation in several sectors.
He further applauded Egypt’s constructive efforts to ensure stability in the Horn of Africa.
The meeting took up the latest regional developments, the spokesman noted, adding both leaders agreed to maintain intensified coordination on such developments, especially those related to the Horn of Africa, the situation in Sudan and Somalia, Red Sea security, and the Nile water.
Water is not the only vital interest at stake: Egypt’s president and former general Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is fighting for his legitimacy
Deadlock means war. Abiy Ahmed is facing unprecedented political and ethnic unrest. His government’s legitimacy questioned by many after election was postponed indefinitely. Yet, Ethiopians rally behind GERD dam and filling the dam with or without agreement with Egypt provides Abiy Ahmed with the national unity he desperately needs. Backing down is not an option for him either. (Photo by Twitter/@PositivelyEthio)
When I warned in March that war between Egypt and Ethiopia over a Nile dam is possible if they don’t reach an agreement, the official Twitter account of Ethiopia’s foreign ministry accused me of being “alarmist and inaccurate”. Today, negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have reached a diplomatic endgame – and, indeed, war looks like the only possible scenario, even as the world is still downplaying its drum-beating.
On Monday, the African Union led-talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, straddling the Blue Nile, reached another gridlock. Egypt fears that its share of the Nile water will be severely affected if Ethiopia started to fill its 74 billion cubic meters without an agreement with its downstream neighbors, Egypt, and Sudan. Cairo wants to guarantee its annual share of water during severe droughts.
But Ethiopia sees filling and operating the dam as a sovereign right, resisting calls for an agreement that doesn’t guarantee new arrangements about its “fair” share too. It also says it will unilaterally start filling up the dam in the next few weeks, regardless of the outcome of these discussions.
Satellite photos on Monday showed the dam’s reservoir already beginning to fill, perhaps due to seasonal rains. But if Addis Ababa makes good on its threat, the crisis will likely take a new turn.
Egyptian officials accuse the Ethiopian government of following a series of diplomatic one-upmanship ploys since signing the 2015-Declaration of Principles, which indicates that all parties should reach a deal first before filling the reservoir. But Ethiopian negotiators seem to have taken stock of the diplomatic prowess North Korea showed in its contracted negotiations with the US over denuclearisation. Since Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un’s 2018 joint statement in Singapore, the North Koreans have shown prudence in running the clock on their commitments. Now negotiations are frozen, and an agreement is far from complete. By following the same playbook, dragging its feet, Ethiopia seems to have led the Egyptians into a cul-de-sac.
The deadlock means Egypt is now running out of options. During a recent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss Ethiopia’s hydro-electric plant, Egypt’s foreign minister Sameh Shoukry stirred the pot. He described the dam as “a threat of potentially existential proportions”, and in a chest-thumping moment threatened that “Egypt will uphold and protect the vital interests of its people. Survival is not a question of choice, but an imperative of nature.” Ethiopia’s UN ambassador Taye Atske-Selassie countered, saying that for his nation accessing water resources was an “existential necessity.”
Water is not the only vital interest at stake: Egypt’s president and former general Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is fighting for his legitimacy, too. Since taking power in 2014, Sisi has advanced a populist/nationalist narrative based on cultivating too much pride in military strength and raising the people’s expectations over his ability to protect “Egypt’s national security and interests.”
Sisi understands that by losing the diplomatic battle over filling up the dam and succumbing to pressure from Ethiopia’s, he’d risk igniting popular unrest – and possibly a military coup.
A source in Cairo told me this week that Egypt has recently seen a “change of emphasis” in its strategy to deal with the GERD dam conflict, and that “Sisi is personally very disappointed about Ethiopia’s digging in strategy.” Ethiopia’s domestic restraints against giving too many concessions to Egypt and Sudan are ironically no different.
Ethiopians are equally invested in the conflict; they see the dam as a sign of renaissance and national pride. Its cost of $4.8bn has been, in large part, covered by Ethiopian state employees’ salaries and other donations from ordinary, poor people.
The nation’s Nobel Prize laureate prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, is also facing political and ethnic unrest at home. Last month the government cut internet access and sent troops into the streets to quell riots, following the killing of a popular singer from the long-oppressed Oromo ethnicity. Many also started to question the government’s legitimacy after having to postpone this year’s parliamentary elections due to Covid-19. The prolonged unrest since he took office in 2018 has dented Ahmed’s power and the stability of his government.
Yet the GERD dam is the biggest political issue behind which Ethiopians can rally, and it could yet provide Ahmed with the national unity he desperately needs. If he gives away too much away, however, his government could possibly be thrown out by the people or by disgruntled generals who oppose his democratic reforms, seen by many as reckless.
Ethiopia is a crucial partner to the US too. Although Sisi relays on his personal bond with Trump, he can’t ignore Ethiopia’s strategic importance for the US as a bulwark against terrorism in Eastern Africa, as well as a partner in the American endeavour to counterbalance China’s investments and growing influence in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
This leaves no room for Egypt to manoeuvre. And, like his shambles in negotiating North Korea’s denuclearisation, Donald Trump’s failure to mediate the conflict in the region and the pressure of his looming presidential election at home are reasons enough for him to lose interest.
This could push Egypt to carry out a military action to prove a point, and to direct the attention of the international community towards the conflict and to impose on the agenda of the incoming US president later this year. It’s is the same strategy used by President Sadat to break the diplomatic stagnation over the “no peace, no war” status with Israel in 1973. That ended with the triggering of a military conflict that concluded with signing a permanent peace treaty between the two countries in 1979. It doesn’t look like an “alarmist” strategy at all.
What role can Eritrea play in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD?
Eritrea’s president visited Cairo against the backdrop of the faltering talks on the Nile dam dispute, raising questions about Eritrea’s role in mediating Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
During his two-day visit to Cairo on July 6-7, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki held bilateral talks with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, focusing on the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian (GERD) and security in the Red Sea, with the aim to support regional security and stability, spokesman for the Egyptian presidency Bassam Radi said.
This is the fifth visit Afwerki has paid to Cairo since Sisi took office in 2014. This time, however, his visit came as Egypt failed to reach a binding agreement with Ethiopia on the filling and operation of the GERD, which Cairo believes will damage its interests in the Nile waters.
Afwerki had previously visited Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on May 2, and Khartoum, Sudan, on June 25. Observers believe that such visits are part of Eritrea’s mediation efforts to resolve the dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
The Egyptian-Eritrean rapprochement over the decades has always been a source of trouble for Ethiopia, which has repeatedly accused Egypt of using Eritrea as a pressure card and of destabilizing the situation in Ethiopia.
This rapprochement has also furthered the Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict that dates to the Eritrean War of Independence in the 1990s, while the situation of “no war, no peace” between the two countries has constantly fueled regional tension in past years.
The historic conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea ended after the two parties signed a peace agreement in July 2018; as a result, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2019.
Yet, following Afwerki’s visit to Cairo, the Eritrean Ministry of Information said on July 11 that the peace agreement with Ethiopia had not met Eritrea’s expectations. The ministry added in a statement on its website,
“Two years after the signing of the Peace Agreement, Ethiopian troops continue to be present in our sovereign territories. … Trade and economic ties of both countries have not resumed to the desired extent or scale.”
In this context, a diplomatic official specialized in African affairs told Al-Monitor, “Cairo is open to all regional and international initiatives designed to resolve the dispute over the GERD. Egypt and Eritrea have common interests that are not limited to bilateral files. There is ongoing coordination in handling the regional dossiers in the Red Sea region on the one hand, and the relations with Ethiopia on the other.”
Speaking to Al-Monitor on the role Eritrea can play in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD, Hamdy Abdel Rahman Hassan, a professor of political sciences at Cairo University, said, “Under the rule of Afwerki, Eritrea [became] a key actor in the power equation in the Horn of Africa given its important geostrategic position. President Afwerki is able to act at the foreign level and exploit the [disputes] to his own interests.”
Abdel Rahman Hassan added, “Eritrea’s president already announced his position on the GERD in 2016. He believes that the dam exceeds the development needs of Ethiopia. There are multiple signs indicating that the Eritrean position is in favor of Egypt, particularly after the tripartite negotiations [on the dam] have come to a crossroad.”
Since he took office in April 2018, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been seeking to resolve his country’s disputes with Eritrea and Somalia. Yet the tension and domestic challenges have prevented a genuine implementation of the rapprochement policies.
“Eritrea has been reluctant to rely on him [Ahmed] in light of the unstable domestic situation in Ethiopia, while Ethiopian forces continue to occupy the disputed areas,” Abdel Rahman Hassan said.
He noted, “Eritrea’s geographical location and relations with the Gulf countries — especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — can serve as strategic support for Egypt, particularly in case of escalation.”
Speaking to Al-Monitor, Eritrea’s Ambassador to Cairo Fasil Gebreselasie denied that Sisi and Afwerki touched on the aspects of military cooperation when it comes to the GERD crisis. He said, “There is a focus on enhancing cooperation and coordination in handling the regional security and economic files.”
He added, “President Afwerki offered what’s within Eritrea’s ability to resolve the dispute over the GERD.” However, he refused to give details on the Eritrean initiative.
Suleiman Hassan, an Eritrean political analyst, and expert on African affairs told Al-Monitor, “The Eritrean president is aware of the nature and complexities of the political stage in Ethiopia, as well as of the stalled talks on the GERD. He can play an important role in bringing closer the views of the political regimes in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in order for them to overcome the differences.”
Hassan added, “The Ethiopian opposition — which supports the former regime that belongs to the Tigrayan ethnic group [TPLF], and which was the source of historical enmity with Eritrea — has used Ahmed’s policies of rapprochement with Egypt to oppose him. This will make it difficult for the current [Ethiopian] political regime to strike an agreement with Egypt on the GERD.”
However, it is in Eritrea’s interest to mediate the GERD dispute, according to Suleiman, who explained, “Eritrea is well aware that the return of the former [TPLF] regime to the rule in Ethiopia is not in its [Eritrea’s] interest. This is especially true in light of attempts to push Ethiopia and Eritrea into military skirmishes on the border, like what happened with Sudan in March.”
“Any Egyptian-Ethiopian interim agreement on the GERD that serves domestic peace and stabilization in Ethiopia will have a positive impact on Eritrea’s interest,” he added.
The success of the mediation efforts led by Eritrea or the African Union to resolve the Nile dam dispute still depend on the Ethiopian current political regime’s ability to adopt a clear position and control the volatile situation — and this without using the GERD’s dossier to gain popularity and confront the opposition campaigns that believe any agreement on the GERD with Egypt goes against Ethiopia’s interests.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, arrived in Asmara in mid-morning hours today for a working visit to the country. President Isaias Afwerki accorded a warm welcome to the Prime Minister and his delegation on arrival at Asmara International Airport.
The two leaders soon after held extensive discussion focusing on bilateral relations and regional developments.
In their discussion, President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed reviewed the progress achieved and obstacles encountered in the past two years in the implementation of the historic Declaration of Peace and Friendship agreement signed between the two countries in July 2018.
The two sides agreed to further bolster the prevailing, all-rounded, cooperation between the two countries. They also agreed to work together to enhance regional cooperation in the Horn of Africa firmly aware that this is pivotal for nurturing robust ties anchored on mutual complementarity.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his delegation accompanied by President Isaias Afwerki in the afternoon hours visited various agricultural projects and infrastructural developments in the Southern region.
The Prime Minister was accompanied by State Minister Ambassador Redwan Hussein and Speaker of Parliament Mr. Tagesse Chaffo.
“If Abiy Ahmed is not to lead Ethiopia now, then who!?
“At this critical time in Ethiopia’s history, I believe Ethiopian intellectuals must take a leading and active role in the public debate to shape the future of their homeland. But there is a deficit in the supply of transformational and visionary Ethiopian thinkers with revolutionary ideas to re-invent Ethiopian society.” – Alemayehu G. Mariam, June 21, 2010
Today, we live in a time of universal deceit. Many Ethiopians in the country and in the diaspora, and particularly the so-called elites sporting an alphabet soup of acronyms after their names, are living comfortably in self-deceit.
So, I am going to engage in a revolutionary act by asking – and throwing the gauntlet to one and all — one simple question which demands a declaration of the truth: If Abiy Ahmed is not to lead Ethiopia today, who will?
The members of the lunatic fringe who proclaim “there are two governments in Ethiopia and they can seize power in 24 hours if they want to?
The ruthless thugs that have been sucking the lifeblood of Ethiopia for over a quarter of a century and today are scheming to unleash ethnic conflict and steal their way back to power in the chaos?
The hoity-toity diaspora “intellectuals” who are abysmally clueless about what it takes to govern a long-abused and misgoverned country like Ethiopia?
The tired old Derg dregs who blow their horns in the diaspora while hiding their blood-soaked hands from public view?
The old fogies who find themselves marooned in exile pipe dreaming about the good old days?
The power-hungry ideologues who blather empty words about “revolutionary democracy”, “ethnic federalism”, the “national question”, the “ethnic question” and demonize leaders who kept Ethiopia free from colonialism when all of Africa was enslaved by European imperial powers?
The nattering nabobs of negativism who palm themselves off as the “media”, “journalists” and “reporters” by propagating fake news, lies and disinformation?
The ethnonationalist preachers of hate and their mindless mob killing, looting and burning homes, business and public facilities in an effort at ethnic cleansing?
The robotic “activists” whose slogan is, “I am against everything!”
The moles hidden deep in the bureaucracy, the military, the police and in the security forces working day and night to bring down the current administration?
The two-faced villainous politicians who smile as they murder and murder as they smile; who during the day hobnob with the administration and at night dig tunnels to bring it down?
The skunks and wolves in sheep’s clothing who work secretly with Ethiopia’s enemies to destroy Ethiopia’s epic national development project?
The myopic windbags passing themselves of as party leaders but cannot present to the public a single page of competing economic, political or social programs if they life depended on it? Or even respond to or offer a principled and robust critique of what has been proposed by the current administration?
The cyber crybabies throwing temper tantrum blogs whining and bellyaching?
The “experts” who returned to Ethiopia begging to be government advisors and when turned down turned their quills as guided missiles to attack the current administration?
The armchair politicians pontificating about what should be done while stuffing their faces with tre sega and washing it down with cognac and whiskey?
Let me make it clear.
There is no shortage of self-styled leaders ready to plunge Ethiopia into civil war to grab power.
There is no shortage of mafiosi leaders ready to plunder the treasury and rip off the people of Ethiopia.
There is no shortage of bloodthirsty criminals who will step on heaps of dead bodies of innocent citizens at the drop of a hat to seize the mantle of power.
The question is:
Is there any leader in Ethiopia today who has demonstrated the same level of courage, intelligence, vision, self-confidence, strategic thinking, honesty and integrity, communications skills, humility, passion and dedication as Abiy Ahmed?
If so, who is that leader? I challenge anyone, everyone, to name him or her!
We have a choice to make
Ethiopia today is at the crossroads.
We are at the fork in the road.
We can march forward confident in the future to a promised land of prosperity, dignity, fraternity, equality and humanity.
We can walk back and free fall into a bottomless vortex of poverty, the shameful politics of ethnicity and live in a society marked by inhumanity, cruelty, enmity and irrationality.
We can make a right turn and uphold human rights and undo human wrongs. We can be on the right side of history and do right by the people of Ethiopia.
We can turn left and be left behind. We can sit on the dock of the bay watch the ship of change sail into a brave new future. We can stand on the platform and watch the train of called prosperity leave the station carrying those who have confidence in themselves and the future.
We have a choice to make!
Do we want the Old Ethiopia mired in poverty, destructive politics of ethnicity, kililized territoriality and a government of no accountability?
Or the New Ethiopia of prosperity, community, civility, and rationality.
We can choose the path of democracy and representative government or go back to the days of fake elektions and democracy.
We can revert to ethnic apartheid or build true federalism.
We can choose between the rule of law and the rule of murderous men with guns.
Let’s face facts, the truth! Better yet, let’s be honest and face our consciences.
For the past two years, Ethiopia has shown a magnificent trajectory out of thugtatorship into multiparty democracy, rule of law and expansion of civil liberties.
No one but no one except those whose souls are fatally infected by the coronavirus of self-hate and hate of others, the Forces of Darkness and the dregs of history can deny that.
The road Ethiopia has taken over the past two years has been bumpy but the road map remains clear:
Ethiopia is rising above the petty politics of ethnicity, sectarianism and communalism.
The inert, comatose and useless practitioners of ethnic and sectarian politics should learn one lesson: “Ethiopia built and preserved with the blood, sweat and tears of illiterate patriots will not be destroyed by educated ignoramuses.”
We have a choice to make today. Now!
Choice is what makes a human being a human being. Of course, not choosing is a choice in itself. Choosing against one’s own self-interest is also a choice.
At this particular moment in Ethiopian history, there will be no fence-sitting, flip-flopping, vacillating, equivocating, or waffling.
“I see nothing, hear nothing, know nothing, say nothing” is not an option.
“Let me see. I need to think about it. Maybe…” is no good.
Turning a deaf ear, blind eyes and muted lips are not options.
Hiding in the herd of the silent majority is not possible.
The one and ONLY choice is to stand with Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed or to stand against Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed.
I made my choice to stand with Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed a long time ago.
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Even with extenuating circumstances of media hype in this election year and palpable zeal to bolster Rice’s bid for the post of Vice President in the Biden Presidential ticket, the narrative is patently false. (Photo: Cheriss May / Getty Images)
Writing for a local US Newspaper, Professor Tom Campell crows on Susan Rice’s presumed “talents and virtues that are disappointingly rare in US diplomacy today”. The author proceeds to shower gratuitous plaudits on Rice for her laudable “initiative and role” to end the Eritrea-Ethiopia border war.
Granted, this is an election year in the US which translates into characteristic hyperbole and media hype by campaign handlers of potential candidates to high office. But even with these extenuating circumstances and the Professor’s palpable zeal to bolster Rice’s bid for the post of Vice President in the Biden Presidential ticket, the narrative is patently false and utterly irresponsible.
First off, Susan Rice was not “driven” by diplomatic foresight, wisdom, and courage or by empathy for the peoples of the Horn of Africa, to “nudge the US Government” to launch a peace initiative to prevent a looming Eritrea-Ethiopia border conflict. Rice first came into the scene during the early days of the border war in May 1998 as an appointed envoy.
Indeed, the US and Rwanda became involved in the facilitation process on the initiative and express request of Eritrea.
Eritrea’s persistent efforts to contain TPLF’s strident territorial ambitions and illicit acts of surreptitious encroachment on sovereign Eritrean lands through bilateral frameworks were to no avail.
Hand-written amicable letters that President Isaias sent to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister when TPLF troops set camp in the Eritrean small town of Adi Murug in August 1997; various meetings of the Bilateral Boundary Committee that was subsequently established on Eritrea’s insistence did not bear any fruit. The TPLF went further to declare war against Eritrea in the first weeks of May 1998 using a minor skirmish that it provoked in the Badme area as a pretext.
In the circumstances, Eritrea solicited the facilitation of two friendly countries – the US and Rwanda – to prevent the outbreak of a potential and costly war between the two neighbours.
But what Rice and her superiors who continued to be involved in the facilitation process for the next two years, had in mind was a complex geopolitical game that had nothing to do with sincere efforts of conflict resolution. This is amply illustrated by the following sequence of events:
1) When Eritrea raised legitimate queries on a US heavy-handed, hastily worked out and flawed initial proposal, Susan Rice, who was then US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, broke diplomatic precedence to directly address the OAU Summit in Ougadigou to lobby the OAU to adopt a resolution against Eritrea.
On that same day, apparently with the tacit endorsement of Rice and company, the TPLF regime launched an airstrike on Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, thus escalating minor border skirmishes into a major war. Nonetheless, the US facilitation process, buttressed by the OAU and the EU, continued after tacit admission of her missteps by her superiors.
2) In July the same year, President Clinton brokered an Agreement on the Moratorium on Air Strikes between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Eritrea’s pronounced preference was for a comprehensive secession of hostilities. But the Clinton Administration insisted on an initial, partial arrangement for the interim period, arguing that the TPLF regime was not prepared to contemplate a comprehensive truce at that point in time.
The TPLF regime abused this fragile window of truce to purchase SU-27 fighter jets and launched a new, large-scale, offensive using its new aircraft against Eritrea eight months later, on 6 February 1999.
This flagrant breach of US-brokered Moratorium on Air Strikes that plunged the two countries into another, more ferocious round of war did not elicit the requisite action, or even condemnation, by the US Administration and Rice; its chief facilitator at the time.
3) This betrayal was played out again in May 2000. This time around, the facilitation team included Anthony Lake, the US Director of National Security (Rice was on his team), Italian Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Serri as the EU envoy, and Algerian Justice Minister, Ahmed Yahiya, representing the OAU.
The Facilitation Team submitted the “Technical Arrangements” proposal to both parties as a “leave it or take it” package in September 1999. Both parties accepted the document and pledged to be bound by its provisions. Soon after, Eritrea learned that the TPLF regime had accepted the Agreement as a time-buying ploy to launch another large-scale offensive. This information was conveyed to the Facilitators who reassured Eritrea that the “TPLF regime would face severe consequences should this turn out to be the case”.
As predicted, the TPLF regime labeled the peace process in “terminal phase” and launched its third offensive on 12 May 2000 in blatant violation of the “Technical Arrangements”. The Facilitators reneged on their commitments again and allowed Ethiopia to indulge in yet another reckless offensive with impunity.
4) Rice and her superiors were thus partially culpable for pouring oil to the fire to stoke a major war between the two countries. Furthermore, Susan Rice was responsible for imposing UNSC sanctions against Eritrea in 2009 and 2011 respectively when she served as US Ambassador to the UN during the Obama Administration.
These are the indelible facts.
As indicated above, Susan Rice was not acting alone. In most instances, she was not the principal player; accountable as she was to Madeline Albright in the first stint and working directly under the supervision of Anthony Lake in the subsequent episodes.
Furthermore, the Bush Administration followed suit when the TPLF regime rejected the EEBC “final and binding” Arbitral Award in contravention of the Algiers Agreement that the Facilitators had brokered with explicit provisions of punitive action by the UNSC against the guilty party under Article VII of the UN Charter.
In this perspective, the blame for the debacle cannot be pinned down to diplomatic misdemeanor, temperament, or other fault lines of Susan Rice alone. The compelling evidence points to deliberate, bi-partisan, US policy that stemmed from its geopolitical calculus and perceived interests in those crucial years. Still, these considerations cannot absolve Susan Rice from personal and collective culpability.
Some Oromo nationalists have openly embraced the TPLF, a group that has a long history of oppressing Oromo rights and freedoms. Their unlikely alliance is nothing but an insult to the legacy of the thousands of Oromo youth who lost their lives in the struggle against TPLF oppression.
Ethiopia has returned to normal after weeks of ethnic violence and unrest triggered by the June 29 murder of the revered Oromo singer, Hachalu Hundessa.
On July 10, Ethiopian authorities said they arrested two suspects over the killing. Both the capital, Addis Ababa, and the surrounding Oromia region – the Oromo homeland which became an epicenter of violence following the tragic murder – have returned to calm. Internet services that were shut off on the day of the killing to prevent further escalation of violence have also been reinstated.
The country’s return to normalcy is welcome news, but the devastating episode of violence that claimed more than 200 lives left permanent marks on Ethiopia’s national psyche and clearly demonstrated that the nation’s ethnic faultlines have not been fully mended.
During the violence, scores of innocent Ethiopians were murdered for the sole “crime” of belonging to a certain ethnic group, mostly Amhara.
Homes, businesses, and vehicles belonging to Ethiopians from various ethnic and religious backgrounds were destroyed. In Shashemene, a diverse and beautiful town located at the heart of the Oromia region, even school buildings were burned to the ground.
The question now facing Ethiopia is whether this most recent recurrence of ethnic violence is going to hinder the country’s long-awaited transition to democratic governance.
Since his rise to power in 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has sought to promote reconciliation, national unity, solidarity, and social justice in Ethiopia. He achieved some success in easing the tensions between Ethiopia’s many ethnic groups. He introduced new schemes to elevate the economy and ambitious plans to overcome environmental challenges. The prime minister also created several governmental commissions to work on national reconciliation and promotion of good governance.
All this helped most Ethiopians get behind Abiy’s plans for achieving sustainable national unity, but there are still many more challenges to be conquered for the country to be able to smoothly transition to democracy.
Abiy’s Ethno-nationalist Detractors
The violence that followed Hachalu’s tragic murder drew renewed attention to the ethno-nationalist detractors of Abiy’s government.
More importantly, it exposed the dangerous alliance the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – the political representative of the Tigray minority which dominated a coalition government for years before Abiy took office – and some radical Oromo political organizations formed to undermine the reforms that are being enacted by Ethiopia’s first Nobel Peace Prize laureate to end the country’s ethnic divisions.
After Hachalu’s murder, rather than allowing the relevant authorities to investigate the crime and punish the perpetrators, the TPLF and ethno-nationalist Oromo groups embarked on a blame game and intentionally raised tensions across the country.
By framing the heinous killing in ethno-nationalist terms and blaming entire communities as well as the federal government for the death of the young singer, these groups paved the way for a new episode of violence.
The anti-Abiy alliance between radical Oromo groups and the TPLF was in the making long before Hachalu’s killing.
After Abiy’s rise to power, several Oromo leaders, including the now-jailed leader of the Oromo Federalist Congress, Bekele Gerba, openly embraced the TPLF, ignoring the group’s long history of oppressing Oromo rights and freedoms.
During TPLF’s decades-long rule, Oromos were silenced, tortured and arrested en masse, to the point that the Oromo language was dubbed “the language of prisons”.
But this painful history was all but forgotten by many Oromo leaders when Abiy emerged as a unifying leader eager to create a new political system in which no ethnic group has dominance over others. Oromo leaders who expected Abiy, himself an ethnic Oromo, to fight solely to expand Oromo influence over the federal government were disappointed by his policies aimed at achieving national reconciliation.
While the TPLF took a stance against the new prime minister to avoid losing all of its past powers and privileges, Oromo groups that are more interested in securing power for themselves than unifying the nation also positioned themselves against Abiy. Their shared desire to undermine the new prime minister led these two erstwhile enemies to join forces.
Hachalu himself had acknowledged and criticized this new-found alliance before his death. In his last interview with the now-banned Oromia Media Network, Hachalu implicitly criticized links between opposition Oromo leaders and the TPLF, stating “one thing I know for certain is that the Oromo people have defeated TPLF and brought our current leaders to power“. He had also asserted that any Oromo political group’s collaboration with the TPLF should be viewed as a betrayal of the Oromo struggle for equality and political freedoms.
The actions of the Oromo-Tigrayan alliance against Abiy’s government had raised concerns about renewed ethnic violence in Ethiopia for the first time in May when the parliament announced its decision to postpone the general elections that were scheduled to take place in August due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The TPLF officials criticized the federal government’s decision and announced their intention to hold an election in the Tigray region in a clear attempt to undermine Abiy’s authority. Abiy’s Oromo opponents also strongly criticized the decision to postpone the election. Oromo political activist and Oromia Federalist Congress member Jawar Mohammed, for example, asserted in an op-ed in Addis Standard that Ethiopia will not have a legitimate government after September 30 – the day that should have marked the end of the current government’s tenure.
Jawar Mohammed has a lot of influence over Oromo youth. His vocal opposition to the government’s decision to postpone the election, coupled with the TPLF’s apparent refusal to follow the federal government’s guidance on the matter, raised concerns that the anti-Abiy stance of the two groups may eventually lead to renewed ethnic strife in the country.
The violence that followed Hachalu’s murder clearly demonstrated the threat this new-found Oromo-Tigrayan alliance poses to Ethiopia’s democratic prospects. If Abiy fails to successfully counter the incendiary rhetoric utilized by these groups, there is indeed a chance that Ethiopia may experience more bloodshed as the date of the postponed election nears.
All is not lost
The TPLF and some Oromo political groups’ opposition to Abiy’s democratic reform agenda is undoubtedly a concern, but the young prime minister has not yet lost the battle to create a political system in which all Ethiopians are equally represented and heard.
Abiy came to power on the back of widespread Amhara and Oromo protests triggered by the TPLF’s decades-long marginalization of the two ethnic groups. Once Abiy took over the country’s leadership with a promise to bring all Ethiopians together, however, the country’s other marginalized ethnic groups, such as the Somalis, also joined in the efforts for democratization and supported the new government.
Therefore, although Oromo and Amhara protests are often credited for paving the way for much-needed political, democratic and economic reforms that Abiy enacted in his first two years in power, almost all Ethiopian ethnic groups played a role in getting the country on the road to democratization.
Acknowledging this fact and understanding that reforms should serve not any single group but all Ethiopians, Abiy refused to give in to the ethno-nationalist demands of his detractors and continued on the path to democratization.
This does not mean Ethiopia’s prime minister did not encounter any challenges, or experience any failures, during his first term in power. Back in April 2019, I myself expressed concerns over Abiy’s failure to address rising ethnic tensions and violence in Ethiopia. Fortunately, in the year that followed, the prime minister managed to make significant gains against armed groups active in the country and made Ethiopia a safer place for all Ethiopians.
The devastating events of the past month, however, revitalized concerns over the Abiy administration’s ability to ensure the safety of Ethiopians and the stability of the nation.
Nevertheless, Abiy can still deliver on his promises of democratization and reconciliation as long as he stands strong against the ethno-nationalist demands of both the TPLF and his Oromo opponents. By engaging citizens to address the issues between different communities through dialogue rather than violence, and utilizing transitional justice mechanisms to heal wounds and offer meaningful reconciliation, Abiy can ensure his detractors are not successful in deepening ethnic divides, and he can pave the way for all communities to peacefully co-exist in a united Ethiopia.
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